East African countries are under great threats from Somalia-based militants Al Shabaab, who are spilling into the region and forming sleeper cells after being ejected from their stronghold.

Security reports indicate that the militants have divided themselves into three groups to carry out attacks in Mogadishu and other regions in Somalia, as well as the East African region. A few of the militants are seeking to join in the national dialogue in the Horn of Africa nation.

The attack on Thursday at the Moi University-affiliated college in Kenya’s Garissa County — in which at least 147 people were killed and 79 others injured — could indicate that the group tasked with attacking countries in the region is now active.

According to Abdirahman Omar Osman Yarisow, a politician and former senior strategic communications advisor to the federal government of Somalia, the more Al Shabaab loses territory the more the insurgents pull off high-profile attacks on civilians. This is aimed at showing their global backers Al Qaeda that they are still active.

Another reason for their attacks is the presence of the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) in the country. The more their leaders are killed by a combination of Amisom, the Somali National Army (SNA) and US drone attacks, the more lethal they become in their revenge attacks.

Amisom’s recent capture of Kudha Island, a key Al Shabaab logistical and operational base situated in Lower Juba region and around 70km southwest of the port city of Kismayu, dealt a major blow to the militants and has strengthened their resolve to look beyond Somalia for revenge.

These developments saw Britain issue fresh travel advisories against Kenya while the United States had warned of an imminent attack in Kampala, forcing the government to put the military on high alert.


Eloi Yao, the Amisom senior public information officer and spokesperson, told The EastAfrican that, as the presence of Al Shabaab continues shrinking in Somalia, the group’s numbers are rising in the neighbouring countries such as Kenya, where they have fled to in good numbers, lying in wait to attack.

Mr Yao added that Al Shabaab’s capabilities have been significantly depleted as a fighting force in Somalia because the key areas they used for resupply are being recovered from them.

However, Al Shabaab still remains a threat because its members mingle with residents, waiting to strike another day.

The split in Al Shabaab occurred prior to the killing of the group’s then leader Ahmed Abdi Godane by US drones in September last year. Godane had favoured participation in the national dialogue to gain a foothold in the government once elections are called.

He was supported by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the Al Shabaab ideologue who has since made peace with the government but who still remains on the US list of people wanted in connection with terror.

RINK