Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote: The overbought levels have been reset and the bollinger bands flattened to neutral. Volume is also building up. The chances of a breakout outweigh breakdown. I expect to see the likes of KCB, Mpesa bank, EABL, BAT, Equity, SCBK, ARM and Bamburi to continue stretching the 2012 highs. Seems January will explode into a huge rally when trading desks are in full operation both locally and abroad. I disappeared for 16 days for a deserved break and coming back the rally is still intact confirming the breakout above the 5yr falling trend line (on the MSCI index) is gathering strength despite near term elections!? Bulls climb walls of worry; most wazuans are a worried lot at the moment.
MSCI KE index is on course to test the all time high of 1210.21 set back on June 5 2008. Today it should close above 1200 points as per the heavyweight blue chips rally. However, RSI is so overbought at 90s level and some correction is on the cards for some bluechip counters though should be shallow.
NSE20 today has closed @4212 vaulting above 4200 and above the 2012 high @4171. NSE20 RSI is also overbought, above 70s now and a correction is expected though should be shallow.
Despite the fact that I still expect the bulls to remain strong, I need to see volume swelling to hold up the deck to avoid sharp corrections towards March - may be triggered by a run off outcome, which is very likely from the political patterns.
As for my picks I'll remain in Mpesa bank and Kengen. I expect to see rotation from banks into industrials. I'm also going to bet (speculate) on insurance industry (very risky due to elections) via Jubilee. This is betting that political polls will be non violent. Jubilee stands to make good gains if the political premiums are not cashed in due to peaceful elections. Expect insurance firms to rally post peaceful elections. So for Q1 2013, I'll be "cautiously bullish" with those 3 counters (SCOM, KEGN and JUB). I would have liked to add to KCB, but since the 25/- correction didn't materialize, I will let it pass by.
Pray for peaceful elections and happy 2013 
Boss, you need to open a thread on the same, something like @stockmaster's. Your predictions are on point, but I'm betting a friendly discussion would be welcome, no? eg Today's amazing rally of JH from 180 to 194, is 194 a good entry point? Where do you foresee this stock, say just before election? @stockmaster and @contrarian are talking about holding cash (the worried lot), do you intend to cash out? What would make you do so? And when would you do so?
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