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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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It won't work another useless move from CBK...CBK underestimatin AGAIN the power of the bankster & hedge funds!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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KulaRaha wrote:Shilling had a relief rally on the back of news CBK will now be a forex dealer to corporates.
102.60 levels.
Where next? I hope not anything like this... http://bit.ly/n6lw2z
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Statement from BBC...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/pre...mber/27/statement.shtml
Update - BBC says the interview was legit, but reuters thinks otherwise. Even the media houses can't agree just like the broken markets 
http://blogs.reuters.com...ssio-rastani-a-yes-man/
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:If KCB doesn't make a colossal amount off this currency madness in Q3...i'll @>£€. They wont as well as most banks due to their bond traps. Unless most hide their tradable bonds to hold to maturity to hide the current losses. Banks stocks were a sell this year and they still are a sell! what does handling forex tranx @ a comish by this merchant bank have to do with bonds again? We will review this query next yr on 2011 fiscal results. Keep a reminder.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:If KCB doesn't make a colossal amount off this currency madness in Q3...i'll @>£€. They wont as well as most banks due to their bond traps. Unless most hide their tradable bonds to hold to maturity to hide the current losses. Banks stocks were a sell this year and they still are a sell! what does handling forex tranx @ a comish by this merchant bank have to do with bonds again? We will review this query next yr on 2011 fiscal results. Keep a reminder. what is there to wait for? Show us the linkage in this scenario when KK or even Triton approaches KCB with an OTS tender and needs fx to fund it and therein KCB earns it cut?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Cde - 2011 fiscal yr results are a few months away. Just wait for you'll read it... Now this CBK forex trade bank bypass is... I have no words for it. How do they expect to control a dollar squeeze, a global reaction? CBR is still below inflation rate by a whooping 900+ bps. Delaying the econ winter will only prolong the pain. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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C'mon man. Cut the BS. Bond trading profits/losses is a separate item from fx incomes on the P&L. Or maybe in Malay they bunched up together?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Looks like we've some recovery. Cde/Hisah-you are both right though I think CBK is targeting this profiteering on the part of the kcb and others. Hisah-I think most have moved to HML to avoid mtm losses, will impact lending and I think CBK should require uniform treatment... Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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I think CBK move will stabilize the KSh in that it has in a way reduced uncertainties and panic in the fx market.This plan though has its own challenges how will CBK ensure equity in the market if their move will only favor importers of essential goods. by selling the $ to importers CBK will be competing directly with commercial banks head to head...this is a fight I would really look forward to. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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Alessio interview with forbes just shows how volatility attracts speculators that can ruin an economy if not checked.Excerpt of the interview below. Quote:FORBES: What kind of trader are you?
AR: What kind of trader? What do you mean?
FORBES: Usually traders have strategies.
AR: Oh I see, I’ll tell you what kind of trader I’m not. I’m a very risk-averse person. I never get into a position that I haven’t fully analyzed. I trade mostly the Dow futures, also a bit of forex, and I trade stocks, the most liquid stocks in the market. What I look for, essentially what I look for is opportunities. I’m a trend trader, so I trade trends, that what I like. And I like volatility. There are three things I wait for. I look for moments of high volatility, or the early parts of a volatile market, and I trade the momentum.
Basically, markets go through periods of high to low volatility, and what you want to do, the style I prefer is to be prepared for the moment when there is a sudden shift from low to high volatility, capture that momentum and ride it as high as you can. You can be very good at predicting direction, but you can really never be 100% sure about the magnitude. So what you need to do is keep yourself in the markets as long as the trade is working your direction. And when you realize when the trend or mom is weakening, then just get out.
What you could say, I’m mostly a technical trader. I look at charts. I’m not a big, huge fan of funny analysis, you know, fundamentals. http://www.forbes.com/si...essio-rastani-and-asked/'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/1/2009 Posts: 2,436
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selah wrote:Now lets say CBK increases its CBR so it tightens liquidity i.e the supply of KSh in the market but thats not the only reason the shilling is loosing its value is it? the $ is in high demand just as @the deal said due to us being net importers so even if the rate is increased the $ demand will continue rising.
Problem is CBK would have to raise CBR by such a huge margin it would be impractical. For sure, no one, including CBK, can tell you the actual fundamentals behind the massacre of the KShs - hizo stori za euro zone debts, oil prices,etc are mere excuses, not reasons. So CBK is really being outmanoueuvred by speculators & USD panic buyers. I thought it was currency printing for 2012 but realised this problem of nights of long knives extends to Tz & Ug: 1)In Kenya, KShs value had depreciated by 25% from 1/12/10 2)In Tz, TShs value had haemorrhaged about 11.65% 3)In Ug, UGX value took a 26.41% banging. And all the gilts, inflation rates and commercial lending rates are heading for the stratosphere. The TZS is buoyed somewhat by the gold reserves the country has, plus adequate food reserves it has compared to Kenya and Ug. CBK and Bank of Tz are in lala land, but Bank of Uganda is contemplating unusually harsh measures to rein in the UGX slide. Are the 3 regulators speaking among themselves coz they face very similar problems? Already, analysts are speaking of the KShs trading at the 110-120/= range. I hope we don't go the Tz route where a lot of services (rents, hotel bookings,etc)are quoted in USD.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=selah]Alessio interview with forbes just shows how volatility attracts speculators that can ruin an economy if not checked.Excerpt of the interview below. Quote:FORBES: What kind of trader are you?
AR: What kind of trader? What do you mean?
FORBES: Usually traders have strategies.
AR: Oh I see, I’ll tell you what kind of trader I’m not. I’m a very risk-averse person. I never get into a position that I haven’t fully analyzed. I trade mostly the Dow futures, also a bit of forex, and I trade stocks, the most liquid stocks in the market. What I look for, essentially what I look for is opportunities. I’m a trend trader, so I trade trends, that what I like. And I like volatility. There are three things I wait for. I look for moments of high volatility, or the early parts of a volatile market, and I trade the momentum.
Basically, markets go through periods of high to low volatility, and what you want to do, the style I prefer is to be prepared for the moment when there is a sudden shift from low to high volatility, capture that momentum and ride it as high as you can. You can be very good at predicting direction, but you can really never be 100% sure about the magnitude. So what you need to do is keep yourself in the markets as long as the trade is working your direction. And when you realize when the trend or mom is weakening, then just get out.
What you could say, I’m mostly a technical trader. I look at charts. I’m not a big, huge fan of funny analysis, you know, fundamentals. http://www.forbes.com/si...ssio-rastani-and-asked/[/quote] [color=darkblue]The way this trader is being bashed by mostly US media houses means there is more than meets the eye here. This guy has opened up a pandora's box just like Julian Assange did with wikileaks... More mudslinging here - http://www.huffingtonpos...ax-on-bbc_n_983156.html
http://www.telegraph.co....eeker-not-a-trader.html[/color] $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Selah - that 'hoax' trader has made it all the way to prime time news on CNN... Wow! He must have really pissed off the market masters If Assange is an espionage terrorist, then this Rastani guy will be sued for market terrorism... This drama is getting interesting. http://edition.cnn.com/2...europe/uk-trader-viral/
As for USDKES, waiting to see whether the 100/- handle will slip or resist... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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selah wrote:I think CBK move will stabilize the KSh in that it has in a way reduced uncertainties and panic in the fx market.This plan though has its own challenges how will CBK ensure equity in the market if their move will only favor importers of essential goods.
by selling the $ to importers CBK will be competing directly with commercial banks head to head...this is a fight I would really look forward to.
Don't be too thrilled about this fight, as you will end up being the grass that gets trampled. CBK has a history of "funny business", and don't be shocked when some "phantom" oil company registered yesterday suddenly gets allocated forex well below market rates...only to not import any oil. Prepare for a two-tier exchange rate system...official and street...where CBK will probably supply the street. Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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FUNKY wrote:http://www.nation.co.ke/business/-/996/996/-/xt3q8cz/-/index.html
Hope this helps the KES So CBK decides to stem the disorderly tidal wave by digging trench rings on the shore. I give up!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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Seems to be working-note this a variation on the fx controls that other countries have done.. Below Ksh100. Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
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I like Baba Jimmy suggestion of suspending Professor for a period. Perhaps send him to become head of one the universities (maybe Masinde Muliro). Uhuru’s idea of politically-driven monetary policy is not very clever... Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Enjoying the cloud formation. Dalili ya mvua ni mawingu
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