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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
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VituVingiSana
#1581 Posted : Thursday, February 15, 2018 12:05:59 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
@SittingPretty wrote this in April 2015 so it needs updating. If someone can ask him to do so for us...

@Maichblack I understand your vile it can be frustrating. But let me shed some light atleast with figures and not stories.
Using an example of Super petrol for the month of march 2015.
Note that I have excluded any decimals
FOB= USD592/Mt
Premium/freight/insurance=USD26/MT
Port charges/KMA/Shipping/Inspection(SGS)=USD18/MT
Total landed cost(Mombasa)=USD636/MT
Usd rate Ksh92.5
Approx Landed Cost=Ksh43 per liter
Taxes = Ksh31 (+/-0.5)
Tax paid cost= Ksh74 per liter
Kenya Pipeline=Ksh3.7 per liter
Transport to station( Truck)= Ksh0.7 per liter
Station cost= Ksh78 per liter

Note:
1. OMC (eg Total/Vivo) has not paid salaries,office rent, depot fees, finance costs and other admin costs.
2. Station operator(mostly franchised) needs to also pay its bills, maintenance etc.

Lets assume the admin costs for the station and OMC is Ksh3 per liter each.
Station cost= Ksh78 per liter
Admin Cost= Ksh6 per liter
Total cost at station= Ksh84 per liter

Well ideally that should be the price at the station??? Fortunately this are not Non profit orgs.

ERC price for Nairobi is Ksh89.35
Profit= 89.35-84
= Ksh5.35
Now that has to be shared between the OMC and the station operator.
And of course GOK at the end of the year.

Hope this helps.
Disclaimer: I do not work for ERC or any GOK institution.
I am only have a few KK stocks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Gatheuzi
#1582 Posted : Thursday, February 15, 2018 7:33:25 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
VituVingiSana wrote:
@SittingPretty wrote this in April 2015 so it needs updating. If someone can ask him to do so for us...

@Maichblack I understand your vile it can be frustrating. But let me shed some light atleast with figures and not stories.
Using an example of Super petrol for the month of march 2015.
Note that I have excluded any decimals
FOB= USD592/Mt
Premium/freight/insurance=USD26/MT
Port charges/KMA/Shipping/Inspection(SGS)=USD18/MT
Total landed cost(Mombasa)=USD636/MT
Usd rate Ksh92.5
Approx Landed Cost=Ksh43 per liter
Taxes = Ksh31 (+/-0.5)
Tax paid cost= Ksh74 per liter
Kenya Pipeline=Ksh3.7 per liter
Transport to station( Truck)= Ksh0.7 per liter
Station cost= Ksh78 per liter

Note:
1. OMC (eg Total/Vivo) has not paid salaries,office rent, depot fees, finance costs and other admin costs.
2. Station operator(mostly franchised) needs to also pay its bills, maintenance etc.

Lets assume the admin costs for the station and OMC is Ksh3 per liter each.
Station cost= Ksh78 per liter
Admin Cost= Ksh6 per liter
Total cost at station= Ksh84 per liter

Well ideally that should be the price at the station??? Fortunately this are not Non profit orgs.

ERC price for Nairobi is Ksh89.35
Profit= 89.35-84
= Ksh5.35
Now that has to be shared between the OMC and the station operator.
And of course GOK at the end of the year.

Hope this helps.
Disclaimer: I do not work for ERC or any GOK institution.
I am only have a few KK stocks.


Check this out. Margin per litre at 10.89.

Pesa Nane wrote:

Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, February 15, 2018 7:35 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#1583 Posted : Thursday, February 15, 2018 9:44:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
@Gatheuzi - That's the max for the Dealer and OMC combined.
From a Gross Margin perspective it's less than 10% on average (Diesel + Petrol) vs 10%+ last year.

I see that ERC is publishing more detail (or making it more widely available in easier to understand formats) to show that the international crude price increases are the primary reason for the increase in retail prices.

Oil Futures have dropped since 1st Feb so hopefully the benefits will flow down to OMCs (& eventually us) in Feb-March.

Can the large (or efficient) OMCs take market share from the Independents - to maintain/sustain profits - which may face financing or storage constraints?
[As a KK shareholder, I hope so]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#1584 Posted : Thursday, February 15, 2018 10:15:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Gatheuzi - That's the max for the Dealer and OMC combined.
From a Gross Margin perspective it's less than 10% on average (Diesel + Petrol) vs 10%+ last year.

I see that ERC is publishing more detail (or making it more widely available in easier to understand formats) to show that the international crude price increases are the primary reason for the increase in retail prices.

Oil Futures have dropped since 1st Feb so hopefully the benefits will flow down to OMCs (& eventually us) in Feb-March.

Can the large (or efficient) OMCs take market share from the Independents - to maintain/sustain profits - which may face financing or storage constraints?
[As a KK shareholder, I hope so]


Our local oil prices have a lag of 45 days to the international crude oil prices
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Ericsson
#1585 Posted : Thursday, February 15, 2018 10:16:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Gatheuzi - That's the max for the Dealer and OMC combined.
From a Gross Margin perspective it's less than 10% on average (Diesel + Petrol) vs 10%+ last year.

I see that ERC is publishing more detail (or making it more widely available in easier to understand formats) to show that the international crude price increases are the primary reason for the increase in retail prices.

Oil Futures have dropped since 1st Feb so hopefully the benefits will flow down to OMCs (& eventually us) in Feb-March.

Can the large (or efficient) OMCs take market share from the Independents - to maintain/sustain profits - which may face financing or storage constraints?
[As a KK shareholder, I hope so]


Oil prices are on upward trend again due to weakening of the dollar
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Realtreaty
#1586 Posted : Friday, February 16, 2018 12:44:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,386
Total is now twice as much as Kenol Kobil. Earlier the difference was just 5 Kes. What have made Total give KK a gap of 15 Kes today?

Has Total and shell expanded their businesses?

Is KK now doubting itself why it did not go ahead and build its own Tower that they had the plan suspended?

There is still room for hospitality commercial building (Hotel and MICE) and that what KK could have adopted as the same time having a floor for their office operations.
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mlennyma
#1587 Posted : Friday, February 16, 2018 12:34:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Realtreaty wrote:
Total is now twice as much as Kenol Kobil. Earlier the difference was just 5 Kes. What have made Total give KK a gap of 15 Kes today?

Has Total and shell expanded their businesses?

Is KK now doubting itself why it did not go ahead and build its own Tower that they had the plan suspended?

There is still room for hospitality commercial building (Hotel and MICE) and that what KK could have adopted as the same time having a floor for their office operations.

Total kenya riding on parent company which bought engie and exploration interests
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Ericsson
#1588 Posted : Friday, February 16, 2018 12:39:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,804
Location: NAIROBI
mlennyma wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
Total is now twice as much as Kenol Kobil. Earlier the difference was just 5 Kes. What have made Total give KK a gap of 15 Kes today?

Has Total and shell expanded their businesses?

Is KK now doubting itself why it did not go ahead and build its own Tower that they had the plan suspended?

There is still room for hospitality commercial building (Hotel and MICE) and that what KK could have adopted as the same time having a floor for their office operations.

Total kenya riding on parent company which bought engie and exploration interests


Excitement of the share price isn't necessarily on the exploration interests but the market share it has gained so far putting ahead of its rivals
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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mlennyma
#1589 Posted : Monday, February 26, 2018 12:17:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Is there a secret change of guard through share buying?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Kausha
#1590 Posted : Monday, February 26, 2018 3:30:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
mlennyma wrote:
Is there a secret change of guard through share buying?


P/folio crosses by an FM.
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161 Pages«<157158159160161>
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