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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:kawi254 wrote:Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.
On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.
Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers. I've noted too. Between Nairobi and machakos junction, so big big stations. KK should get one or 2 there. There are so many trucks + jam on the route which could translate to more sales Ohana did mention that they are looking for more stations i.e. if you know someone who wants to lease to KK, they can get in touch with KK but what he said is they LEASE not buy the stations. I saw a nice one near/in Kekopey that caters to trucks. That should be the future. Question: With crazy rents/prices of land/buildings in Nairobi... can petrol stations make a decent ROI? [If you have a station that's been there for years at a low(er) rent, you are OK but buying one acre in Upper Hill is 500mn. 500mn at 12% (T-Bond) = 60mn/year tax-free (90mn pre-tax) Add interest costs to build a station + lease equipment. Maintenance costs. Salaries. Taxes (County, licenses, etc) A station would have to generate at least KES 150mn gross profits to pay all costs and make 60mn PAT + a little extra for the hassle. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kawi254 wrote:Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.
On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.
Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers. I've noted too. Between Nairobi and machakos junction, so big big stations. KK should get one or 2 there. There are so many trucks + jam on the route which could translate to more sales Ohana did mention that they are looking for more stations i.e. if you know someone who wants to lease to KK, they can get in touch with KK but what he said is they LEASE not buy the stations. I saw a nice one near/in Kekopey that caters to trucks. That should be the future. Question: With crazy rents/prices of land/buildings in Nairobi... can petrol stations make a decent ROI? [If you have a station that's been there for years at a low(er) rent, you are OK but buying one acre in Upper Hill is 500mn. 500mn at 12% (T-Bond) = 60mn/year tax-free (90mn pre-tax) Add interest costs to build a station + lease equipment. Maintenance costs. Salaries. Taxes (County, licenses, etc) A station would have to generate at least KES 150mn gross profits to pay all costs and make 60mn PAT + a little extra for the hassle. I find KK not aggressive enough in getting petrol stations in prime locations. But I have realised thika to embu they have a presence. Wish they could replicate it elsewhere. That said the volumes of sales are among the highest of the OMCs The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kawi254 wrote:Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.
On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.
Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers. I've noted too. Between Nairobi and machakos junction, so big big stations. KK should get one or 2 there. There are so many trucks + jam on the route which could translate to more sales Ohana did mention that they are looking for more stations i.e. if you know someone who wants to lease to KK, they can get in touch with KK but what he said is they LEASE not buy the stations. I saw a nice one near/in Kekopey that caters to trucks. That should be the future. Question: With crazy rents/prices of land/buildings in Nairobi... can petrol stations make a decent ROI? [If you have a station that's been there for years at a low(er) rent, you are OK but buying one acre in Upper Hill is 500mn. 500mn at 12% (T-Bond) = 60mn/year tax-free (90mn pre-tax) Add interest costs to build a station + lease equipment. Maintenance costs. Salaries. Taxes (County, licenses, etc) A station would have to generate at least KES 150mn gross profits to pay all costs and make 60mn PAT + a little extra for the hassle. I find KK not aggressive enough in getting petrol stations in prime locations. But I have realised thika to embu they have a presence. Wish they could replicate it elsewhere. That said the volumes of sales are among the highest of the OMCs My view or understanding of Ohana's philosophy is KK will pursue PROFITABLE growth rather than Segman's policy [at the time] of growth in volumes at the expense of profits. There are different schools of thought but after seeing what happened to ARM, KK and KQ in the not so distant past, I agree with "slow but sure" growth in the core business. What I would like to see happen is greater growth in "other income" by pursuing better re-development of the prime stations that have extra land. KK has put a lot of money into expanding the LPG business and that will pay off going forward. The K-Card could be leveraged further. That has disappointed me i.e. I do not see a major push to get more K-Cards into more hands and tie it in with other retailers for increased loyalty. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kawi254 wrote:Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.
On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.
Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers. I've noted too. Between Nairobi and machakos junction, so big big stations. KK should get one or 2 there. There are so many trucks + jam on the route which could translate to more sales Ohana did mention that they are looking for more stations i.e. if you know someone who wants to lease to KK, they can get in touch with KK but what he said is they LEASE not buy the stations. I saw a nice one near/in Kekopey that caters to trucks. That should be the future. Question: With crazy rents/prices of land/buildings in Nairobi... can petrol stations make a decent ROI? [If you have a station that's been there for years at a low(er) rent, you are OK but buying one acre in Upper Hill is 500mn. 500mn at 12% (T-Bond) = 60mn/year tax-free (90mn pre-tax) Add interest costs to build a station + lease equipment. Maintenance costs. Salaries. Taxes (County, licenses, etc) A station would have to generate at least KES 150mn gross profits to pay all costs and make 60mn PAT + a little extra for the hassle. I find KK not aggressive enough in getting petrol stations in prime locations. But I have realised thika to embu they have a presence. Wish they could replicate it elsewhere. That said the volumes of sales are among the highest of the OMCs My view or understanding of Ohana's philosophy is KK will pursue PROFITABLE growth rather than Segman's policy [at the time] of growth in volumes at the expense of profits. There are different schools of thought but after seeing what happened to ARM, KK and KQ in the not so distant past, I agree with "slow but sure" growth in the core business. What I would like to see happen is greater growth in "other income" by pursuing better re-development of the prime stations that have extra land. KK has put a lot of money into expanding the LPG business and that will pay off going forward. The K-Card could be leveraged further. That has disappointed me i.e. I do not see a major push to get more K-Cards into more hands and tie it in with other retailers for increased loyalty. @vvs slow but sure is good but some businesses grow organically and without much debt.. COOP & KCB are good examples
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kawi254 wrote:Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.
On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.
Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers. I've noted too. Between Nairobi and machakos junction, so big big stations. KK should get one or 2 there. There are so many trucks + jam on the route which could translate to more sales Ohana did mention that they are looking for more stations i.e. if you know someone who wants to lease to KK, they can get in touch with KK but what he said is they LEASE not buy the stations. I saw a nice one near/in Kekopey that caters to trucks. That should be the future. Question: With crazy rents/prices of land/buildings in Nairobi... can petrol stations make a decent ROI? [If you have a station that's been there for years at a low(er) rent, you are OK but buying one acre in Upper Hill is 500mn. 500mn at 12% (T-Bond) = 60mn/year tax-free (90mn pre-tax) Add interest costs to build a station + lease equipment. Maintenance costs. Salaries. Taxes (County, licenses, etc) A station would have to generate at least KES 150mn gross profits to pay all costs and make 60mn PAT + a little extra for the hassle. I find KK not aggressive enough in getting petrol stations in prime locations. But I have realised thika to embu they have a presence. Wish they could replicate it elsewhere. That said the volumes of sales are among the highest of the OMCs My view or understanding of Ohana's philosophy is KK will pursue PROFITABLE growth rather than Segman's policy [at the time] of growth in volumes at the expense of profits. There are different schools of thought but after seeing what happened to ARM, KK and KQ in the not so distant past, I agree with "slow but sure" growth in the core business. What I would like to see happen is greater growth in "other income" by pursuing better re-development of the prime stations that have extra land. KK has put a lot of money into expanding the LPG business and that will pay off going forward. The K-Card could be leveraged further. That has disappointed me i.e. I do not see a major push to get more K-Cards into more hands and tie it in with other retailers for increased loyalty. @vvs slow but sure is good but some businesses grow organically and without much debt.. COOP & KCB are good examples Banks cannot be evaluated on "debt" since their entire business is predicated on debt! Depositors "lend" to banks. Banks "lend" that money to borrowers. In Kenya, there is a mismatch i.e. loans maturities > deposit maturities hence the fear of a run on a bank. The bank may be fine and lent properly BUT a borrower can't cash out, at a "fair" price, as fast as a bank needs to if there's a run. KK, ARM, etc business is not "money" but "product" ... Money is a means of exchange. For banks, "money" is the "commodity" Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:kawi254 wrote:Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.
On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.
Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers. I've noted too. Between Nairobi and machakos junction, so big big stations. KK should get one or 2 there. There are so many trucks + jam on the route which could translate to more sales Ohana did mention that they are looking for more stations i.e. if you know someone who wants to lease to KK, they can get in touch with KK but what he said is they LEASE not buy the stations. I saw a nice one near/in Kekopey that caters to trucks. That should be the future. Question: With crazy rents/prices of land/buildings in Nairobi... can petrol stations make a decent ROI? [If you have a station that's been there for years at a low(er) rent, you are OK but buying one acre in Upper Hill is 500mn. 500mn at 12% (T-Bond) = 60mn/year tax-free (90mn pre-tax) Add interest costs to build a station + lease equipment. Maintenance costs. Salaries. Taxes (County, licenses, etc) A station would have to generate at least KES 150mn gross profits to pay all costs and make 60mn PAT + a little extra for the hassle. I find KK not aggressive enough in getting petrol stations in prime locations. But I have realised thika to embu they have a presence. Wish they could replicate it elsewhere. That said the volumes of sales are among the highest of the OMCs My view or understanding of Ohana's philosophy is KK will pursue PROFITABLE growth rather than Segman's policy [at the time] of growth in volumes at the expense of profits. There are different schools of thought but after seeing what happened to ARM, KK and KQ in the not so distant past, I agree with "slow but sure" growth in the core business. What I would like to see happen is greater growth in "other income" by pursuing better re-development of the prime stations that have extra land. KK has put a lot of money into expanding the LPG business and that will pay off going forward. The K-Card could be leveraged further. That has disappointed me i.e. I do not see a major push to get more K-Cards into more hands and tie it in with other retailers for increased loyalty. Cash is king Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Currently this is the 2nd best managed company listed at NSE after BAT!!!!!  EABL? SCOM? DTB? TPSEA?.. Toa hio voodoo rating hapa, tafadhali! I fully concur with you. This is median attempt by Hohana. The risk still larks and its too early to crown your david @vvs. Where is the track record. I do not invest with starters and especially on hope and at a premium .  Let the heiffer prove to be a cash cow after second or third lactation. even the way you spell ohana tells me you know nothing about kk Thanks for your timely correction. But unfortunately its not a bother to my banker. Only a meaningful sum of chums tickles the teller to afford me a smile. Boom. KES 13.8 prints. Glad I made it out in good time and condition
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Currently this is the 2nd best managed company listed at NSE after BAT!!!!! EABL? SCOM? DTB? TPSEA?.. Toa hio voodoo rating hapa, tafadhali! I fully concur with you. This is median attempt by Hohana. The risk still larks and its too early to crown your david @vvs. Where is the track record. I do not invest with starters and especially on hope and at a premium . Let the heiffer prove to be a cash cow after second or third lactation. even the way you spell ohana tells me you know nothing about kk Thanks for your timely correction. But unfortunately its not a bother to my banker. Only a meaningful sum of chums tickles the teller to afford me a smile. Boom. KES 13.8 prints. Glad I made it out in good time and condition What did you but using the cash? KQ? 😂😂😂 I love the bargains in the NSE at the moment! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:mlennyma wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:obiero wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Currently this is the 2nd best managed company listed at NSE after BAT!!!!! EABL? SCOM? DTB? TPSEA?.. Toa hio voodoo rating hapa, tafadhali! I fully concur with you. This is median attempt by Hohana. The risk still larks and its too early to crown your david @vvs. Where is the track record. I do not invest with starters and especially on hope and at a premium . Let the heiffer prove to be a cash cow after second or third lactation. even the way you spell ohana tells me you know nothing about kk Thanks for your timely correction. But unfortunately its not a bother to my banker. Only a meaningful sum of chums tickles the teller to afford me a smile. Boom. KES 13.8 prints. Glad I made it out in good time and condition What did you but using the cash? KQ? 😂😂😂 I love the bargains in the NSE at the moment! No. It was only 1,000 shares. Bought shoes!
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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The backlog of sell orders around 14.80 -15 seems to be over "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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