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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
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sparkly
#1551 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 10:29:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Spikes wrote:
HNW bugger has exited by huge volume.
Any news in this counter.


Who is HNW?
Life is short. Live passionately.
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kawi254
#1552 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 10:38:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 468
Location: Nairobi
Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.

On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.

Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers.
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Angelica _ann
#1553 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 10:38:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
sparkly wrote:
Spikes wrote:
HNW bugger has exited by huge volume.
Any news in this counter.


Who is HNW?


Biwott family holding!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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VituVingiSana
#1554 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 11:07:33 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
kawi254 wrote:
Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.

On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.

Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers.

KK runs a "franchise model" and anyone can partner and become a franchisee.
Many stations aren't run by "individuals" but by groups who put in systems. With the increasing use of the K-Card, credit/debit cards and Mobile Money, the need to monitor cash receipts will reduce but not eliminated.
Tech should help reduce fraud i.e. automatic sensors for fuel delivery, etc. That said one does need GOOD and HONEST employees just as they are required in any business.

I expect sales (volumes) will pick up in 2018 as we leave the election season behind. The same share of a bigger pie will help KK though the increased cost of financing pricier cargoes will hurt profits for all OMCs.

KK has the ability to finance OTS cargoes thanks to its improved relationship with banks esp the Dutch banks [Ohana mentioned Dutch banks are cheaper/better than French banks]

The big "unknown" is how far low will HNW's estate go to cash out. Could it be a buying opportunity? Will they sell in (smaller) blocks OR find a strategic investor to take them out?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, December 18, 2017 11:09 AM | Reason: Not specified
mamilli
#1555 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 12:08:20 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/6/2015
Posts: 249
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
littledove wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The pendulum has stalled,no demand

kenol kobil has a tendency of performing poorly during bull period, as the bull is organizing itself to charge kk is preparing itself to return to its comfort zone. For me its better having Arm which is on turnaround mission and buyout rumour just like kk was 2 years ago. it was a good ride from 8 bob

Hmmm, a view that's 180 degrees from Warren Buffett's take. I do not know your history of investment performance [not saying you aren't right] BUT I think I'll stick with WB's philosophy for now of buying/holding quality firms at fair prices.

FY 2017 will be a record breaking year for KK.
FY 2018 will be tougher but if Ohana sticks to his non-gambling [no naked forex or fuel hedges] ways, KK should do fine.
I wonder if KK can gain market share from independents as fuel prices rise?
Do the good guys in GoK/ERC/MoE have the balls and power to significantly reduce smuggling, tax evasion, fuel adulteration and mismanagement of ullage?


Same WB said "cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless" @littledove am with you on turnaround firms.
Never lose your position in a bull market,BTFD.
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sparkly
#1556 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 2:54:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Spikes wrote:
HNW bugger has exited by huge volume.
Any news in this counter.


Who is HNW?


Biwott family holding!!!


Thanks, now I know.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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VituVingiSana
#1557 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 7:45:14 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
mamilli wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
littledove wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The pendulum has stalled,no demand

kenol kobil has a tendency of performing poorly during bull period, as the bull is organizing itself to charge kk is preparing itself to return to its comfort zone. For me its better having Arm which is on turnaround mission and buyout rumour just like kk was 2 years ago. it was a good ride from 8 bob

Hmmm, a view that's 180 degrees from Warren Buffett's take. I do not know your history of investment performance [not saying you aren't right] BUT I think I'll stick with WB's philosophy for now of buying/holding quality firms at fair prices.

FY 2017 will be a record breaking year for KK.
FY 2018 will be tougher but if Ohana sticks to his non-gambling [no naked forex or fuel hedges] ways, KK should do fine.
I wonder if KK can gain market share from independents as fuel prices rise?
Do the good guys in GoK/ERC/MoE have the balls and power to significantly reduce smuggling, tax evasion, fuel adulteration and mismanagement of ullage?


Same WB said "cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless" @littledove am with you on turnaround firms.

Within context... Yes, to buy QUALITY firms.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#1558 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 7:47:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
mamilli wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
littledove wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The pendulum has stalled,no demand

kenol kobil has a tendency of performing poorly during bull period, as the bull is organizing itself to charge kk is preparing itself to return to its comfort zone. For me its better having Arm which is on turnaround mission and buyout rumour just like kk was 2 years ago. it was a good ride from 8 bob

Hmmm, a view that's 180 degrees from Warren Buffett's take. I do not know your history of investment performance [not saying you aren't right] BUT I think I'll stick with WB's philosophy for now of buying/holding quality firms at fair prices.

FY 2017 will be a record breaking year for KK.
FY 2018 will be tougher but if Ohana sticks to his non-gambling [no naked forex or fuel hedges] ways, KK should do fine.
I wonder if KK can gain market share from independents as fuel prices rise?
Do the good guys in GoK/ERC/MoE have the balls and power to significantly reduce smuggling, tax evasion, fuel adulteration and mismanagement of ullage?


Same WB said "cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless" @littledove am with you on turnaround firms.

That's how Shah made his fortune via KCB

KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana
#1559 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 10:05:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
mamilli wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
littledove wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
The pendulum has stalled,no demand

kenol kobil has a tendency of performing poorly during bull period, as the bull is organizing itself to charge kk is preparing itself to return to its comfort zone. For me its better having Arm which is on turnaround mission and buyout rumour just like kk was 2 years ago. it was a good ride from 8 bob

Hmmm, a view that's 180 degrees from Warren Buffett's take. I do not know your history of investment performance [not saying you aren't right] BUT I think I'll stick with WB's philosophy for now of buying/holding quality firms at fair prices.

FY 2017 will be a record breaking year for KK.
FY 2018 will be tougher but if Ohana sticks to his non-gambling [no naked forex or fuel hedges] ways, KK should do fine.
I wonder if KK can gain market share from independents as fuel prices rise?
Do the good guys in GoK/ERC/MoE have the balls and power to significantly reduce smuggling, tax evasion, fuel adulteration and mismanagement of ullage?


Same WB said "cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless" @littledove am with you on turnaround firms.

That's how Shah made his fortune via KCB

SS was a director with 10% [or so] and was instrumental in recruiting MOO among others. In other words, he was in the driver's seat NOT waiting for a turnaround by spearheaded by others. WB likes control or influence in how a business is run i.e. he doesn't run the business BUT he wants his voice heard. When WB voices his disapproval [even if he doesn't have a majority stake] you know things are going to change.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#1560 Posted : Tuesday, December 19, 2017 9:22:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
kawi254 wrote:
Next market share report for OMCs should be interesting.

On all major Highways i have noticed a lot of Shell & Total petrol stations owned by our Somali brothers opening up - leveraging on the big brands as opposed to opening Petrol Stations with unknown names.

Maybe KenolKobil need also to partner up with our Somali brothers to increase their petrol stations numbers.


I've noted too. Between Nairobi and machakos junction, so many big big stations. KK should get one or 2 there. There are so many trucks + jam on the route which could translate to more sales
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, December 19, 2017 12:44 PM | Reason: Not specified
161 Pages«<154155156157158>»
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