I kif up (trying to post a pdf document on the above)

I must admit ignorance because that’s the only way a person learns... I have to start by stating what I can say I know (more like public knowledge on this) then I will declare what I don’t know.
What I know is that this thing is largely in our hands... physical distancing, hand hygiene, covering coughs, wearing masks, cleaning of surfaces. Those are largely in our control. They determine to a degree whether we get infected or not.
I know government’s role is public awareness, testing, isolation, contact tracing. Our government being our government.... I cannot state for a fact that it’s happening in a way it’s supposed to happen.

Back to us as individuals- Do some of the things that we are meant to do at a persona level get enforced by our environment? Perhaps! Ours is a largely informal economy...People transacting in open spaces in the sun may help in moving the dial. People seated around waiting for work. Does this time we spend outside in the sun generally mean we are no lacking vitamin D and that makes the disease’s outcome mild? Quite probable! Do we have individual (hidden immunity that is just for us black people living in Africa? Highly Unlikely... why would we lose this when we travel abroad? Why do black people there fare badly off).

Wacha nicheke tu

All I can say is

Saw the KEMRI paper 12.4% of blood donors in Nairobi got it. Nimesalimu amri.

Not @Makales, but that Star story is trash...
The Standard story is more measured..
Only 2535 blood donor samples were tested for antibodies. The 2.6 million is an extrapolation from those samples. Statisticians will tell you that this method is often useless as it usually has bias (in this case, people who donate blood do not represent the Kenyan population). The article in the standard points this out:

Standard excerpt: "The report indicates, however, that the ideal way of estimating exposure to Covid-19 in the Kenyan population would be visiting randomly selected homesteads to collect and then test blood samples, but this has not been practical under current restrictions."

That said, it is almost a certainty that there are more infected Kenyans than the numbers MOH so breathlessly loves to report every evening… .knowing very well that our testing levels are subpar.

The reported cases are not useless but as the disease moves on they become less correct as cases sprout all over. On the extrapolation- it’s true... the stats are wrong but they are a fair indicator of what’s wrong. I stopped looking at the number but I concentrate on the hit rate... it’s a good indicator of the active cases around. On the KEMRI report - Consider a situation where 6 people in a county give blood and in there are 3 brothers from same family. If those 3 have antibodies the extrapolation will state that 50% of the county has the disease. Which was indeed just 1 family. Having said that- this is the closest methodical way we have assessed the spread of Covid in the country. Science is corrected by better science so let’s get some other type of estimation.