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Exchange Bar: Results forecast
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snipermnoma
#1411 Posted : Wednesday, November 15, 2017 2:31:45 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.8
DTB 7.6 Actual 7.5
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31


For comparison look how Q3 2016,figures in KES B were:
Equity 21.6 Actual 21.5
KCB 21.4 Actual 22.9
COOP 15.1 Actual 15.2
SCBK 11.3 Actual 11.1
BBK 8.9 Actual 8.7
DTB 7.9 Actual 7.8
I&M 7.2 Actual 7.3
CFC 5.2 Actual 4.8
NIC 5.1 Actual 4.7
HFCK 1.4 Actual 1.2
NBK 0.67 Actual 0.74
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, November 15, 2017 2:33 PM | Reason: Not specified
obiero
#1412 Posted : Wednesday, November 15, 2017 8:55:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
snipermnoma wrote:
obiero wrote:
The Exchange Bar Quarterly Forecast for Q3 2017, PBT figures in KES B:
KCB 21.8 Actual 22.4
EQTY 20.4 Actual 20.7
COOP 14.4 Actual 13.7
SCBK 7.7 Actual 6.8
DTB 7.6 Actual 7.5
BBK 7.4
I&M 6.6
CFC 3.9
NIC 3.9
HFCK 0.41
NBK 0.31


For comparison look how Q3 2016,figures in KES B were:
Equity 21.6 Actual 21.5
KCB 21.4 Actual 22.9
COOP 15.1 Actual 15.2
SCBK 11.3 Actual 11.1
BBK 8.9 Actual 8.7
DTB 7.9 Actual 7.8
I&M 7.2 Actual 7.3
CFC 5.2 Actual 4.8
NIC 5.1 Actual 4.7
HFCK 1.4 Actual 1.2
NBK 0.67 Actual 0.74

The worst is yet to come..

KQ ABP 4.26
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obiero
#1413 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 8:05:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, November 17, 2017 8:31 AM | Reason: Not specified
the deal
#1414 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 2:22:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation
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obiero
#1415 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2017 6:13:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana
#1416 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 4:08:11 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#1417 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 6:51:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts.

Like Nakumatt??

KQ ABP 4.26
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VituVingiSana
#1418 Posted : Saturday, November 18, 2017 8:17:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts.

Like Nakumatt??

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts. Or get bailouts from Taxpayers.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#1419 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2017 10:42:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
obiero wrote:
obiero wrote:
Kenya Airways

The results are out.. Operating profit 1.4B, loss after tax 3.8B

Well results are worse than you estimated...

2H could be terrible

1. Surging oil prices
2. Current political situation

All businesses are affected

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts.

Like Nakumatt??

Not all businesses have negative equity, make losses or need bailouts. Or get bailouts from Taxpayers.


Indeed KQ is privileged in terms of the bailout.. As for negative equity and losses, management knows exactly when the rain started beating us and have taken bold steps to seal all leaks. Meanwhile, 7 out of 17 firms which have released their financial performance statement since September have made a loss, filings with the Nairobi Securities Exchange, where their shares trade, show.
Further, some six companies posted a reduction in net profit, with only four returning growth in profit for shareholders, according to the results for the half-year, nine-month or full-year trading period, depending on individual firms’ reporting cycle.
Firms which remained in loss-making territory include ARM Cement (Sh1.41 billion for six months to June), Uchumi Supermarkets (Sh1.7 billion full-year period to June), Kenya Airways (Sh3.8 billion for six months to September) and Unga Group (Sh32.29 million full-year to June)..

KQ ABP 4.26
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, November 19, 2017 11:18 AM | Reason: Not specified
winston
#1420 Posted : Wednesday, November 22, 2017 10:18:53 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Coming up in 1Q 2018 [unless KCB takes the hit in 2017] is the IFRS 9 manenos [Shareholder Funds] ;-)

That's why I sit outside of bank stocks for now


No question that performance of banking stocks will decline. but two thots. first the impending doom via ifrs9 is a one year impact. who knows its effects might be cancelled out by the lifting or modification of the interest rate cap. Secondly even if they declne and they realiae normal profit...are there many other stocks that can outperform bankng stocks on a risk adjusted basis?
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