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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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Spikes
#1391 Posted : Sunday, January 17, 2016 11:52:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
mnandii wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Financial Values Can Disappear
(Excerpt, Conquer the Crash, ch. 9)

People seem to take for granted that financial values can be created endlessly seemingly out of nowhere and pile up to the moon. Turn the direction around and mention that financial values can disappear into nowhere, and they insist that it is not possible. “The money has to go somewhere…It just moves from stocks to bonds to money funds...It never goes away…For every buyer, there is a seller, so the money just changes hands.”

That is true of the money, just as it was all the way up, but it’s not true of the values, which changed all the way up.

Asset prices rise not because of “buying” per se, because indeed for every buyer, there is a seller. They rise because those transacting agree that their prices should be higher. All that everyone else -- including those who own some of that asset and those who do not -- need do is nothing.

Conversely, for prices of assets to fall, it takes only one seller and one buyer who agree that the former value of an asset was too high. If no other bids are competing with that buyer’s, then the value of the asset falls, and it falls for everyone who owns it. Financial values can disappear through a decrease in prices for any type of investment asset, including bonds, stocks and land.



Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...Yes..aspx#ixzz3xOFNAnDC
Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook

True wise words


As for my research I have learnt that most of us suffer losses because we tend to ignore the basics. I have changed my thinking to match to@mnandii foundations above to reap abundantly this year 2016.


Thanks. I suggest a thorough reading of the Elliott literature I posted on before as well as downloading the videos.



I want to go through Elliot Wave principle to capture insight that I'd like to apply in NSE decision making process
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, January 17, 2016 11:57 AM | Reason: Mathew 10:34-42 'Do not suppose that I have come to bring peace to the earth. I did not come to brin
whiteowl
#1392 Posted : Sunday, January 17, 2016 12:21:40 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
mnandii wrote:
TheGeek wrote:
Check out the daily bitcoin chart for this month.
475 - 350 in 8 days
The last 48 hours epic drop.


I did an Elliott analysis about a month ago suggesting that bitcoin should drop to about $85. Am waiting with bated breath! You can imagine buying at that price then it explodes to past $1500 in the next one year or so. Drool

The other advantage is that bitcoin is money!


Waiting to make this play too if the drop happens.
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mnandii
#1393 Posted : Sunday, January 17, 2016 12:43:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Spikes
#1394 Posted : Sunday, January 17, 2016 1:10:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


Since we are headed to February and most companies will post profits we are likely to break upwards NSE index 4040 points.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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snipermnoma
#1395 Posted : Sunday, January 17, 2016 9:24:04 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


@mnandii I'm still an amateur wave counter so I'm wondering how to count green wave 3. My assumptions are as follows:

I assume green wave 3 comprises of five blue/cyan waves (so far we have [i] and [ii]).

I assume blue/cyan [iii] is composed of five red waves (so far we have i and ii).

Green wave 5 will be the end of black wave (C) from long term chart which you calculated as 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15 in post 1377
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hisah
#1396 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2016 1:05:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Spikes wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


Since we are headed to February and most companies will post profits we are likely to break upwards NSE index 4040 points.

Mr market has already priced in the news! S/he is wondering where the bull will come from once the profit warnings become actualized going forward. NSE20 path of least resistance is down. Rallies will tempt more sellers than buyers.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Spikes
#1397 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2016 7:51:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


Since we are headed to February and most companies will post profits we are likely to break upwards NSE index 4040 points.

Mr market has already priced in the news! S/he is wondering where the bull will come from once the profit warnings become actualized going forward. NSE20 path of least resistance is down. Rallies will tempt more sellers than buyers.


@hisah Your humble advice is for Wanjiko to pullout/bailout before the great market crash.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 19, 2016 7:52 AM | Reason: Not specified
Spikes
#1398 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2016 8:14:31 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


Since we are headed to February and most companies will post profits we are likely to break upwards NSE index 4040 points.

Mr market has already priced in the news! S/he is wondering where the bull will come from once the profit warnings become actualized going forward. NSE20 path of least resistance is down. Rallies will tempt more sellers than buyers.


@hisah Your humble advice is for Wanjiko to pullout/bailout before the great market crash.


According to accurate research the NSE20 has completely bottomed out expect exponential rally from today all the way to February.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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mlennyma
#1399 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2016 8:30:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


Since we are headed to February and most companies will post profits we are likely to break upwards NSE index 4040 points.

Mr market has already priced in the news! S/he is wondering where the bull will come from once the profit warnings become actualized going forward. NSE20 path of least resistance is down. Rallies will tempt more sellers than buyers.


@hisah Your humble advice is for Wanjiko to pullout/bailout before the great market crash.


According to accurate research the NSE20 has completely bottomed out expect exponential rally from today all the way to February.

iam hardened enough to hold what i own past 2018 because i don't expect much
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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hisah
#1400 Posted : Tuesday, January 19, 2016 4:05:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@spikes, the market will rebound but as long as 4000 critical support has broken down that rebound will not be sustainable because the investor psychology has been shredded. This is what makes sellers stall the bulls as they pile up to cash out of losses as the rebound gives them lesser squeeze. Plenty of investors are trapped in bad positions and the rebound will likely tempted them to sell on the bounce.

We will get a proper bottom when it feels like it's bottomless. 2015 selloff didn't trigger that kind of sentiment. If you were in the market back in 2008 (GFC) and 2011 (KES crash/inflation spike) you'd understand that sinking feeling (capitulation). At that point a lot of guys give up on stocks (no sellers). That's when the major bottom kicks in.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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