The fact of the NSE 20 Share index gropping for below 3830 gives me confidence that the bear market in stocks is here to stay and will likely get worse. It should be awakening call for most.
The NSE 20 Share Index started its journey in 1966 at 100. The data available to me on the index is as shown in the chart above from ft.com. The most important thing is that the data fits perfectly into Elliott Waves as they should (after all we are tracking mass human psychology). From this we can proceed to 'predict' the future!
Wave (A) ended at 2360.01 in Mar', 2009.
Wave (B) ended at 5499.64 in Mar', 2015.
The preferred Elliott count suggests that the fall from the 5499.64 level is a wave (C) which has much further to drop.
We can target the final low for the NSE 20 share index which I expect to occur probably in 2017.
Assuming that the movement from 100 to the ultimate high of 6161.46 (on Jan', 2007) is one major Impulse wave, then the waves (A), (B) and (C) are its correction (a wave two). Second waves usually retrace a Fibonacci 61.8 or 78.6% of wave one. Thus:
{6161.46 -( 0.618 X (6161.46 - 100))} =
2415.48And
{6161.46 - ( 0.786 X (6161 - 100))} =
1397.15Also, if wave (C) be equal to wave (A) then:
Wave (C) bottom = { 5499.64 - (6161.46-2360.01) } =
1698.19So targets for wave (C) and thus the ultimate bottom for the NSE 20 Share Index are
2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15.
The alternate scenario is that wave (B) is not complete and thus a move above 5499.64 is in the cards. I give this scenario a low probability since the proposed wave (B) would appear too stretched.
Analysis of the shorter term will show in these pages soon.
#BEST.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.