slick wrote:Lets do a simple comparison
Kenyan treasuries
Kenyan 3 month bill yield +7.315%
Kenyan 10 year bond yield +12.35%
Relative good return on Kenyan bonds
US treasuries
US 1 month bill yield +1.41%
US 10 year bond yield +0.95%
Now thats weird,how can the US 1 month bill yield more than the 10 year bond?Why then would an investor first buy bonds that yield so little and have real negative yield (if one takes into account US inflation rates are slightly above 2%) so its a guaranteed loss at least in terms of real yield returns.Why would one hold a bond for 10 years to get less yield return than 1 month bill??Nuts isnt it.Well its the infamous yield curve inversion that occurs in the US a few months before a recession.
Gets even nuttier
German Treasuries
German 1 month bill yield -0.53%
German 10 year bond yield -0.65%
What negative yields on bonds??Thats right.At some point last year the whole German government bond market was negative yielding.How the hell do you make money on negative yielding bonds?If you buy the bond and hold it to maturity its a guaranteed loss but investors in Eurozone and Japan have become savvy enough to know not to hold these bonds to maturity but sell them in the secondary market at higher bond prices (thus even more negative yields) and the final sucker who buys the bond and holds to maturity suffers a loss.Most times its the central banks that hold the bonds to maturity and lose the money but they are central banks (they dont lose money if they are the ones who create money in the first place). Governments love these bonds.They get paid to borrow as opposed to the reverse (ie governments pay to borrow cash).70% of Eurozone's and Japanese sovereign debt is negative yielding and 1/3 of the entire world's bond market is negative yielding.Now that's weird but its just how it is Eurozone and Japanese treasuries are so toxic that investors have been running away from these treasuries seeking paltry but at least positive yielding US bonds.These investors gamble on capital gains on the secondary market and when the bonds near maturity they sell them to the commercial/investment banks who in turn sell them to the European and Japanese central banks to eat the losses at maturity.Also,these investors are forced by law to allocate a specific percentage of their portfolio to bonds so have no choice to buy them but try their best to sell them before maturity.So how did bonds become negative yielding?In the post 2008 meltdown and the 2010-2012 European sovereign debt crisis,bond yields rose so rapidly as investors dumped them and to prevent the collapse of these treasury markets,the central banks stepped in to buy them as a last resort.So many bonds were bought by the central banks that yields flipped to negative.The European Central Bank holds 1/3 of the entire Eurozone treasury market and the Bank of Japan holds over 1/2 of Japanese bonds.
As a consequence,banks especially in Europe have been reeling from negative interest rates.Banks in Italy,Spain,Greece are perpetually in distress needing central bank bailouts.Germany's largest bank ie Deutsche Bank is a massive loss making bank and stock had gone down over 90% ever since the 2008 pre meltdown time.Also,some European Banks are charging high net worth accounts a negative rate for depositing money with them.This is over and above the monthly ledger fee that all banks in the world charge depositors.Thus some investors prefer to keep cash "under the matress" than deposit into the banks and be charged.In Japan safes sales are hot as they prefer keeping cash in safes as opposed to being charged to deposit in the bank


https://www.reuters.com/...ters-poll-idUSL3N16W2Y8
Also,some Danish banks are offering negative interest rate mortgages.Now thats just crazy.Ok,its not entirely negative as there are overhead bank charges but the base rate is negative
https://www.cnbc.com/201...ive-interest-rates.html
So banks charging customers for deposits thus clients flee from depositing money in the bank,then banks offer very low interest rates for loans like mortgages and even negative rates in Denmark so isnt it obvious why banks especially in Europe are suffering as they cant make money.Look at Germany's largest bank ie Deutsche Bank stock price

Mad world post 2008 financial crisis
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money