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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Spikes
#1341 Posted : Friday, December 18, 2015 10:31:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
I don't think the impact will be significant to frontier markets. You will be surprised next year emerging markets' performance outstriping analysts who have warned of local currency meltdown and financial earthquake in capital markets. Fed rate hike of 25 basis points is not strong enough to give US dollar muscles to trounce other currencies. Capital outflow will remain minimal however the real challenge is debt management by third world countries because of large mounts in their books. As for debt I am left worrisome of the spiral effect on the balance of account expected to skyrocket its deficit.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
mnandii
#1342 Posted : Saturday, December 19, 2015 11:25:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
5 US Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars Exposure to Derivatives
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
VituVingiSana
#1343 Posted : Saturday, December 19, 2015 5:22:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
Though not all exposure is 'negative' and a lot of it may cancel out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
TheGeek
#1344 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 7:07:53 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
Eh mnandii, SPT , Metasploit. how are the charts looking ?
In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
mlennyma
#1345 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 3:10:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Some good number of greens today
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Sober
#1346 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 3:18:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Articles I am reading this afternoon

1. http://www.standardmedia...rformance-in-four-years

2. http://www.standardmedia...-wipes-out-sh250-billion
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
mlennyma
#1347 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 3:43:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
[quote=Sober]Articles I am reading this afternoon

1. http://www.standardmedia...rformance-in-four-years

2. http://www.standardmedia...wipes-out-sh250-billion[/quote]
paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time,the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
hisah
#1348 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 4:08:25 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mlennyma wrote:

paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time,the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks

Those gains are on vapour volume.

I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.

Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!

Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#1349 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 4:46:39 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:

paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time,the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks

Those gains are on vapour volume.

I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.

Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!

Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds.

@Hisah - I am skeptical if Kenya will see a deflation despite lower commodity [steel, copper, oil] prices due to profligate behavior by GoK.

The strong USD will push up the import bill for goods other than commodities which creates push inflation.

Equities, in general terms, will suffer which is why I am very selective in what I buy. Of course, I could buy wrong as well.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#1350 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 4:50:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:

paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time,the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks

Those gains are on vapour volume.

I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.

Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!

Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds.

on the vapour volume I agree infact the top gainers of today are highly likely tomorrow's top losers,all other factors will not necessarily swing the market the way we think.it's guess work based on facts
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
372 Pages«<133134135136137>»
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