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KenolKobil FY14 PAT up 95%
murchr
#121 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2015 5:34:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
MaichBlack wrote:
murchr wrote:
We might see 8.xy print soon. That is the problem of boarding the same bus with a multitude of Wanjiku...

I love Wanjiku! She sells shares to me when Wazuans will not.

@murchr - Don't let Wanjiku worry you. She cannot sell for ever. she will eventually run out of shares. These shares will end up with long termers! The best you can do is to buy from her while she still has something to sell!!!


As long as the price remains "cheap" she shall be boarding and alighting at every stop. Anyway, its my time to eat. May the price even fall further tomorrow.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Aguytrying
#122 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2015 5:35:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
MaichBlack
#123 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2015 5:43:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,851
murchr wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
murchr wrote:
We might see 8.xy print soon. That is the problem of boarding the same bus with a multitude of Wanjiku...

I love Wanjiku! She sells shares to me when Wazuans will not.

@murchr - Don't let Wanjiku worry you. She cannot sell for ever. she will eventually run out of shares. These shares will end up with long termers! The best you can do is to buy from her while she still has something to sell!!!


As long as the price remains "cheap" she shall be boarding and alighting at every stop. Anyway, its my time to eat. May the price even fall further tomorrow.

At one point most of the shares will be held by the @murchr, @vvs and @maichblacks of this world who will not be in a hurry to sell and certainly not at the prices she is used to!! The price will automatically move to where it is supposed to be. Laws of supply and demand!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Aguytrying
#124 Posted : Thursday, April 02, 2015 10:05:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
MaichBlack wrote:
murchr wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
murchr wrote:
We might see 8.xy print soon. That is the problem of boarding the same bus with a multitude of Wanjiku...

I love Wanjiku! She sells shares to me when Wazuans will not.

@murchr - Don't let Wanjiku worry you. She cannot sell for ever. she will eventually run out of shares. These shares will end up with long termers! The best you can do is to buy from her while she still has something to sell!!!


As long as the price remains "cheap" she shall be boarding and alighting at every stop. Anyway, its my time to eat. May the price even fall further tomorrow.

At one point most of the shares will be held by the @murchr, @vvs and @maichblacks of this world who will not be in a hurry to sell and certainly not at the prices she is used to!! The price will automatically move to where it is supposed to be. Laws of supply and demand!


True. Only thing this time that it is one of the top shareholders selling. explains the never ending demand
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#125 Posted : Friday, April 03, 2015 12:25:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
Warren Buffett says & @vvs listens to him. Or am I just justifying my decision?

1) Would I buy the WHOLE company i.e all 1.5bn shares at 9/-? YES [if I had the cash]
2) Would I hold this company 'forever' [until I get cashed out by a very attractive offer]? YES
3) Do I trust the Board and Management? YES [so far]
4) Can KK run without requiring cash input to maintain current profits? YES [to the best of my knowledge]
(In other words, is KK cash-flowing. As long as it doesn't need additional cash e.g. loans, Rights, Equity to replace assets and maintain the current profitability)
5) Does KK have a moat? YES/NO. They have great locations, storage tanks, brand, contracts, contacts, etc BUT these can be chipped away as well by the players since they sell a COMMODITY not a unique item. Petrol from KK looks not different from Shell or Hashi.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
derick
#126 Posted : Friday, April 03, 2015 11:35:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/10/2015
Posts: 411
5.5 m shares traded yesterday 2nd of April, iam more convinced that this are not Wanjiku's buying and selling. This are big timers.
Your income is directly related to your philosophy, Not the economy.-Jim Rohn
Cde Monomotapa
#127 Posted : Saturday, April 04, 2015 1:12:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
As usual my buy orders will be at 8.00 not a penny more,


Fat fingered back into KK. I concur the increased volumes compared to average volumes (myStocks) indicate big player action in the counter.

The 'derisking' play is good. An internal process. Cash flow...

ION, wonder how long my handle will be current. Another buyout offer in ZW, Afsun. Successful buyout and off goes the flagship Crowne Plaza, Monomotapa. smile

NB: Afsun hasn't been a very profitable company, recently underwent derisking too - BS restructuring. Stock you could get at 0.8-0.9USc. An offer of 3USc and amen... The strength in this company is its dominance in the market and the IHG brands.
sparkly
#128 Posted : Monday, April 06, 2015 7:48:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Given the nature of KK business (low margin commodity business), the company's conservative valuation is as good the earnings and dividends achieved. Applying a PE of 10 (on 0.74 EPS) and a DY of 3.5% (on 0.20 DPS) gives a valuation of 7.4 and 5.7 respectively.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#129 Posted : Monday, April 06, 2015 8:16:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Given the nature of KK business (low margin commodity business), the company's conservative valuation is as good the earnings and dividends achieved. Applying a PE of 10 (on 0.74 EPS) and a DY of 3.5% (on 0.20 DPS) gives a valuation of 7.4 and 5.7 respectively.

Based on the historical earnings but not on future earnings.
Is 0.74 normalized earnings for KK?

I do not think so. I think it will rise to at least 1/- in 2015. Why?
1) Lower (current) oil prices [translate to lower fuel prices] give KK better margins both at wholesale and pump/retail.
2) Lower debt levels = lower interest costs [per Ohana's statement]
3) Lower interest rate = lower interest costs [per Ohana's statement]
4) More stations [after dumping certain low margin businesses], more cars, lower fuel prices = more volume [& competition]
5) A stronger balance sheet allows KK to get back into the trading/OTC business. Low margin, low risk, high volumes.
6) I expect KK to get out of certain [low volumes for KK] markets like Zambia & Tanzania where it hasn't built up bulk. Keep UG, RW, BU & ET.

At 1/- 'normalized' earnings then 10x PER = 10/- so not that great a buy at 9/-. I am banking on improvements in operations over the next 2 years within EAC.

And a sale of the firm.

Or I am going to be spectacularly wrong.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kausha
#130 Posted : Monday, April 06, 2015 10:06:19 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
I believe you are are horribly wrong on KK. No way valuation of KK is below 15bob. Even on break up value basis KK's property is worth upwards of USD 500m.

The steady evolution of KK's gross margin over the past two years and the substantial operating leverage created by the cost compression and debt repayments should result in Ksh 6.5 Billion EBITDA in 2015. Knock off Ksh 1B Depreciation and another conservative Ksh 1B financing cost and you end up with PBT of 4.5B.

I am still waiting on a Tax Guru to enlighten us why KK did not paid Ksh 495m tax when they have a massive Kshs 2.2 Billion Deferred tax asset.

Should KK make this Ksh 4.5Billion profit certainly the deferred tax asset should offset any tax payables. Even at worst case assuming 30% taxation KK should end up with about 3B profit which is Ksh 2+ EPS. This is my personal forecast.
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