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Home Afrika Listing at NSE!
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:guru267 wrote:Getting ready to get a huge number at 8bob for a final average of 9.07bob....  After that I will stay away until 5bob if we get there that is! @Guru why average down if you know the share is overpriced and is heading to 5bob? Why not wait at the bottom like the rest of the herd! @Sparkly et al averaging down can be manipulated to be a successful strategy in the short term if executed with care and lots of capital... The main reason I average down is because I do not own a crystal ball to be sure of future movements of a share price.... Market volatility can send this stock on a massive rebound anytime! For those non believers here is an example... If an investor bought: 1,000 HAFR @ 16 5,000 HAFR @ 12 18,000 HAFR @ 9.5 54,000 HAFR @ 8 This investor would have invested 679k and would be holding 78k HAFR shares giving and average of 8.70 bob with a market price of 8bob.. I wait for 5 bob and buy the 78k shares total investment 390k! You are also also assuming a limitless supply of cash. You can run out of the cash after you buy the 1k shares at 16 bob. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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On this madam has been enjoying rookies. No way is she buying this share in the said batches & prices. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:guru267 wrote:Getting ready to get a huge number at 8bob for a final average of 9.07bob.... After that I will stay away until 5bob if we get there that is! @Guru why average down if you know the share is overpriced and is heading to 5bob? Why not wait at the bottom like the rest of the herd! @Sparkly et al averaging down can be manipulated to be a successful strategy in the short term if executed with care and lots of capital... The main reason I average down is because I do not own a crystal ball to be sure of future movements of a share price.... Market volatility can send this stock on a massive rebound anytime! For those non believers here is an example... If an investor bought: 1,000 HAFR @ 16 5,000 HAFR @ 12 18,000 HAFR @ 9.5 54,000 HAFR @ 8 This investor would have invested 679k and would be holding 78k HAFR shares giving and average of 8.70 bob with a market price of 8bob.. I wait for 5 bob and buy the 78k shares total investment 390k! You are also also assuming a limitless supply of cash. You can run out of the cash after you buy the 1k shares at 16 bob. Most Fund managers do practically have a limitless supply of cash The strategy is way more complex to implement than I have explained but you don't have to believe me... Just watch me mint gold on this one! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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guru267 wrote:@Sparkly et al averaging down can be manipulated to be a successful strategy in the short term if executed with care and lots of capital... The main reason I average down is because I do not own a crystal ball to be sure of future movements of a share price.... Market volatility can send this stock on a massive rebound anytime! For those non believers here is an example... If an investor bought: 1,000 HAFR @ 16 5,000 HAFR @ 12 18,000 HAFR @ 9.5 54,000 HAFR @ 8 This investor would have invested 679k and would be holding 78k HAFR shares giving and average of 8.70 bob with a market price of 8bob.. OK. Good for you. GOOD FOR YOU. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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deleted Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:guru267 wrote:sparkly wrote:guru267 wrote:Getting ready to get a huge number at 8bob for a final average of 9.07bob.... After that I will stay away until 5bob if we get there that is! @Guru why average down if you know the share is overpriced and is heading to 5bob? Why not wait at the bottom like the rest of the herd! @Sparkly et al averaging down can be manipulated to be a successful strategy in the short term if executed with care and lots of capital... The main reason I average down is because I do not own a crystal ball to be sure of future movements of a share price.... Market volatility can send this stock on a massive rebound anytime! For those non believers here is an example... If an investor bought: 1,000 HAFR @ 16 5,000 HAFR @ 12 18,000 HAFR @ 9.5 54,000 HAFR @ 8 This investor would have invested 679k and would be holding 78k HAFR shares giving and average of 8.70 bob with a market price of 8bob.. I wait for 5 bob and buy the 78k shares total investment 390k! You are also also assuming a limitless supply of cash. You can run out of the cash after you buy the 1k shares at 16 bob. Most Fund managers do practically have a limitless supply of cash The strategy is way more complex to implement than I have explained but you don't have to believe me... Just watch me mint gold on this one! You are implying that you are snapping up supply and manipulating the price, no? I wouldn't be surprised due to the small float of the company and that most of the original shareholders are first timers. Just don't call your strategy "averaging down". Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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68% down in less than 6 months wao...the true definition of free fall "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@guru. continue with your strategy, it's began to get interesting. we could learn something from it. true about not knowing where it'll eventually settle. the new farers trying to copy you are the ones who can't take the heat. on newly listed stocks. its time to buy I and m bank The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/8/2013 Posts: 27
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Come to think of it,isn't this Accesskenya market price manipulation all over again?!It rose to 35-36,Somens sold their stake living wanjikus vulnerable to tumbling numbers before buying back at historical lows of 4bob. Imagine how many shares a big HomeAfrika shareholder who disposed of say 10million shares at between 20/- n 25/- can buy at 5/-? Coz believe you me thats where its headed.@guru, its disconcerting to see you risk locking money God knows when it will be available at a profit.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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murchr wrote:68% down in less than 6 months wao...the true definition of free fall Are you are talking of 6 months or 60 days? African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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berns wrote:Come to think of it,isn't this Accesskenya market price manipulation all over again?!It rose to 35-36,Somens sold their stake living wanjikus vulnerable to tumbling numbers before buying back at historical lows of 4bob. Imagine how many shares a big HomeAfrika shareholder who disposed of say 10million shares at between 20/- n 25/- can buy at 5/-? Coz believe you me thats where its headed.@guru, its disconcerting to see you risk locking money God knows when it will be available at a profit. @berns I had an investment limit of 100,000 shares for this counter... Na bado sijafika! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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This stock is a good example of the penny stock market. Overnight millionaire to overnight broke to overnight millionaire again. The penny stock mart is very high octane volatile playground.Not meant for newbies who cant analyse firms. Hata pension funds don't play here. But good ground for hedgefunds. If you pick a winner, the returns are outstanding if not crazy... The best thing out of this rout lesson is for those wanting to float their GEMS they had better come with realistic premium stock prices. This HAFR overvaluation litmus test experiment cannot be repeated The transaction advisors have learnt Rip offs will be possible when wanjikus have been suckered by a multi year bull run which is far off... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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7.20 prints Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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@hisah the only overnight broke are the buyers on the secondary market. Everyone else is an overnight millionaire having paid less than 1/= for the share. And indeed, Wazuans right on the money as usual... mwekez@ji wrote:@$PT, am with you #spectator ionssmile
Notice the 405,255,320 shares being listed have a net book value (including goodwill) of KES 0.91 and a net book value (excluding goodwill) of KES 0.73. ... Home Afrika will be ripping off wanjiku if the introduction price is not below 1bob!! stocksmaster wrote:At a net income of Ksh 167.7M for 2012 and a Book Value of Ksh 8.5B (which i assume will be the basis of determination of listing price); its return on equity = net income/shareholders equity is a depressing 1.97%.
Compare this with the ROE of Trans Century at 15.1% (P/B of 1.8); Centum at 18.4% (P/B of 1.0); Housing Finance at 15.0% (P/B of 1.1).
At such a low ROE, which is about an eighth of its peers,i would price the share at a tenth of Ksh 21 hence a price of Ksh 2.00.
The price of Ksh 2.00 would mean a P/E of 4.30 which would be comparable to HFCK (p/e 7.5); Centum (p/e 5.6), trancentury (p/e of 12) all of which have better investor returns.
Based on the 2011 results which were a loss position, i think i'll stay out of this one unless their is a significant discount on the Ksh 2.00. guru267 wrote:The original owners are really dumping this thing!  I have capacity to hold out until 8bob average! 
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/29/2008 Posts: 571
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I bought. 1000 units of HAFR at 8.00, Now Its at sh.7.20.....I QUIT....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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Ali Baba wrote:I bought. 1000 units of HAFR at 8.00, Now Its at sh.7.20.....I QUIT.... Dont quit. Become a long term investor Thieves
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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You should quit.
An investor knows the value of what they're buying.
You shouldn't just buy something without having an idea of its value.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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The final wait for 5 bob begins... I hope people are not getting too burnt! As long as you keep the losses on paper you should weather the storm depending on where your average lies...  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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RSI indicates excessive overselling. RSI currently lies @17.6. I expect a bounce as selling takes a breather. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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@Guru you are evil guru267 wrote:The final wait for 5 bob begins... I hope people are not getting too burnt! As long as you keep the losses on paper you should weather the storm depending on where your average lies... Life is short. Live passionately.
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