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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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murchr wrote:ChessMaster wrote:mlennyma wrote:Am very annoyed by hfck refusing to come down as i expect For me its cables.Rise or fall,do something. HFCK has all indications of getting to 15/- I'm not so sure about that. As long as people keep buying it as the price is falling it might stagnate. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,061 Location: nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:murchr wrote:Where are those who were saying that the markets wont feel the fever? We are here  So were's the fever in Mpesa & simba? Btw the fever will only be/is only on selected stocks,those without strong fundamentals & will be pronounced from March 4th esp if there's a contested election. It will be time to take a plunge,& a really big one!!!! Dont be left out! #makingmoney2013
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,061 Location: nairobi
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:murchr wrote:Where are those who were saying that the markets wont feel the fever? We are here So were's the fever in Mpesa & simba? Btw the fever will only be/is only on selected stocks,those without strong fundamentals & will be pronounced from March 4th esp if there's a contested election. It will be time to take a plunge,& a really big one!!!! Dont be left out! #makingmoney2013 a number of firm's stock prices are still way higher than they were at the end of Q4 2012 hence buyin in Q1 was a good move. And I ask, if everyone is to sell who remains? The answer is the long termer and institutional investors. These two groups will provide price stability even in a contested election, esp for stocks with strong fundamentals.. IMO, only local people with very few shares individually and some short-term-profit-hungry foreigners are selling at the moment
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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obiero wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:murchr wrote:Where are those who were saying that the markets wont feel the fever? We are here So were's the fever in Mpesa & simba? Btw the fever will only be/is only on selected stocks,those without strong fundamentals & will be pronounced from March 4th esp if there's a contested election. It will be time to take a plunge,& a really big one!!!! Dont be left out! #makingmoney2013 a number of firm's stock prices are still way higher than they were at the end of Q4 2012 hence buyin in Q1 was a good move. And I ask, if everyone is to sell who remains? The answer is the long termer and institutional investors. These two groups will provide price stability even in a contested election, esp for stocks with strong fundamentals.. IMO, only local people with very few shares individually and some short-term-profit-hungry foreigners are selling at the moment Institutional investors - pension funds and insurance(among others),are forced to participate in the market.There I agree with you. But what are 'high prices'? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Plain and simple. Wanjikus will never influence Mr Market. Wanjiku expects $=100 & NSE to selloff hard. Mr Market always likes to disappoint herd mentality. Unless there is an outsize market event, the herd is highly likely to be disappointed. I have put my skin on the line since Nov 2012 despite the glaring risks and fear parade. I stand unmoved unless a market event forces me to jump ship. Emerging markets vs global main markets, the latter promises faster outsize performance for a decade at least. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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hisah wrote:Plain and simple. Wanjikus will never influence Mr Market.
Wanjiku expects $=100 & NSE to selloff hard. Mr Market always likes to disappoint herd mentality.
Unless there is an outsize market event, the herd is highly likely to be disappointed.
I have put my skin on the line since Nov 2012 despite the glaring risks and fear parade. I stand unmoved unless a market event forces me to jump ship.
Emerging markets vs global main markets, the latter promises faster outsize performance for a decade at least. I think I see what angle you are coming from.But considering the events in the global markets,can you say the risk level emerging markets are exposed to are almost evenly matched with global markets? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:Plain and simple. Wanjikus will never influence Mr Market.
Wanjiku expects $=100 & NSE to selloff hard. Mr Market always likes to disappoint herd mentality.
Unless there is an outsize market event, the herd is highly likely to be disappointed.
I have put my skin on the line since Nov 2012 despite the glaring risks and fear parade. I stand unmoved unless a market event forces me to jump ship.
Emerging markets vs global main markets, the latter promises faster outsize performance for a decade at least. Wanjiku left the market in Dec and came rushing back after the local dailys started beating the drums on how the market is rallying. I foresee the foreign investors holding back a bit but time might prove me wrong. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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We also have to consider what someone said(can't remember who),foreign investors might be locals operating via proxy. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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cnn wrote:murchr wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:murchr wrote:Where are those who were saying that the markets wont feel the fever? We are here So were's the fever in Mpesa & simba? Btw the fever will only be/is only on selected stocks,those without strong fundamentals & will be pronounced from March 4th esp if there's a contested election. It will be time to take a plunge,& a really big one!!!! Dont be left out! #makingmoney2013 Lets continue watching. Woe unto us if there will be a runoff Even a 10% correction from current levels(NSE 20 @ 4000) will be very welcome,i am still 25% in cash and a chance to get more of my chosen counters cheaper i will take with open arms. @cnn. What stocks are your chosen counters? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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ChessMaster wrote:We also have to consider what someone said(can't remember who),foreign investors might be locals operating via proxy. I dont think so....the rally is not only here in Kenya but Ghana and Nigeria too.. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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murchr wrote:ChessMaster wrote:We also have to consider what someone said(can't remember who),foreign investors might be locals operating via proxy. I dont think so....the rally is not only here in Kenya but Ghana and Nigeria too.. its a global rally...guys running away from 0% yields in advanced markets.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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the deal wrote:murchr wrote:ChessMaster wrote:We also have to consider what someone said(can't remember who),foreign investors might be locals operating via proxy. I dont think so....the rally is not only here in Kenya but Ghana and Nigeria too.. its a global rally...guys running away from 0% interests in advanced markets. I learnt a lot from Wazua. Vituvingisana and the quote that constantly haunts me and guides me - "Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett".If its global I'm scared. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Plain and simple. Wanjikus will never influence Mr Market.
Wanjiku expects $=100 & NSE to selloff hard. Mr Market always likes to disappoint herd mentality.
Unless there is an outsize market event, the herd is highly likely to be disappointed.
I have put my skin on the line since Nov 2012 despite the glaring risks and fear parade. I stand unmoved unless a market event forces me to jump ship.
Emerging markets vs global main markets, the latter promises faster outsize performance for a decade at least. Wanjiku left the market in Dec and came rushing back after the local dailys started beating the drums on how the market is rallying. I foresee the foreign investors holding back a bit but time might prove me wrong. Those blue chip volume spikes are not Wanjikus. They're currently distracted by fever pitch politics with a fear of the market since politics looks ugly.
Wanjiku maniac will come and stock threads will be plenty with crazy price targets. Brokers can hardly wait for that period - commissions bash.
That said NSE is currently not a wanjikus haven. Loans also need to get cheaper for them to borrow more or hold more than one loan. In short when wanjiku gets that liquid, run from the market.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Plain and simple. Wanjikus will never influence Mr Market.
Wanjiku expects $=100 & NSE to selloff hard. Mr Market always likes to disappoint herd mentality.
Unless there is an outsize market event, the herd is highly likely to be disappointed.
I have put my skin on the line since Nov 2012 despite the glaring risks and fear parade. I stand unmoved unless a market event forces me to jump ship.
Emerging markets vs global main markets, the latter promises faster outsize performance for a decade at least. Wanjiku left the market in Dec and came rushing back after the local dailys started beating the drums on how the market is rallying. I foresee the foreign investors holding back a bit but time might prove me wrong. Those blue chip volume spikes are not Wanjikus. They're currently distracted by fever pitch politics with a fear of the market since politics looks ugly.
Wanjiku maniac will come and stock threads will be plenty with crazy price targets. Brokers can hardly wait for that period - commissions bash.
That said NSE is currently not a wanjikus haven. Loans also need to get cheaper for them to borrow more or hold more than one loan. In short when wanjiku gets that liquid, run from the market. I agree hisah. Plus the shilling losing ground makes the NSE more appealing to foreign investors.IMO. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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[+28% Jan-to-date] ZSE:- Industrials advance to record levels on renewed interest in blue chips http://www.herald.co.zw/...business&Itemid=133
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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Fear has caughtup with me iam exiting nse in a big way tomorrow,i will chase them if things dont turn ugly. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,061 Location: nairobi
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ChessMaster wrote:obiero wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:murchr wrote:Where are those who were saying that the markets wont feel the fever? We are here So were's the fever in Mpesa & simba? Btw the fever will only be/is only on selected stocks,those without strong fundamentals & will be pronounced from March 4th esp if there's a contested election. It will be time to take a plunge,& a really big one!!!! Dont be left out! #makingmoney2013 a number of firm's stock prices are still way higher than they were at the end of Q4 2012 hence buyin in Q1 was a good move. And I ask, if everyone is to sell who remains? The answer is the long termer and institutional investors. These two groups will provide price stability even in a contested election, esp for stocks with strong fundamentals.. IMO, only local people with very few shares individually and some short-term-profit-hungry foreigners are selling at the moment Institutional investors - pension funds and insurance(among others),are forced to participate in the market.There I agree with you. But what are 'high prices'? I do not see where the term 'high prices' is written in the dialogue, but I believe it may reflect on an aspect such as 52week price highs on shares such as EABL, KCB, SCOM, HFCK, CITY etc
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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mlennyma wrote:Fear has caughtup with me iam exiting nse in a big way tomorrow,i will chase them if things dont turn ugly. No problem,you can always buy them back from me! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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A host of mixed sets of result announcement so far. Losses, profit dips and some profits. The econ is still squeaking... More stimulus needed. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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