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> 10 % Dividend Yield........my new yard stick in NSE stock picking
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S.Mutaga III
#111 Posted : Wednesday, October 10, 2012 2:36:54 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
The fat dividend from williamson tea was a one-off...people made some mulla...stocksmaster can atest to that fact..I may get in at 180 if it ever materialises
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Aguytrying
#112 Posted : Wednesday, October 10, 2012 10:14:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
S.Mutaga III wrote:
The fat dividend from williamson tea was a one-off...people made some mulla...stocksmaster can atest to that fact..I may get in at 180 if it ever materialises


again? I think you are never serious about buying. 200 and run with it, the signs of the take off are there for all to see.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#113 Posted : Wednesday, October 10, 2012 10:31:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
The fat dividend from williamson tea was a one-off...people made some mulla...stocksmaster can atest to that fact..I may get in at 180 if it ever materialises


again? I think you are never serious about buying. 200 and run with it, the signs of the take off are there for all to see.
As @AGuy says, put up or shut up Applause coz it is unlikely (in the near future) to go below 200. That said, it is YOUR money not mine nor @Aguy's so buy at the price you are comfy with.

With the large capex described earlier [including re-planting of some bushes that are 'old' or not great producers] there may not be much cash to distribute in 2013 or 2014. Let's hope the benefits start accruing sooner than later.

One of the directors [whose family owns the largest stake] emphasized that farming is a LONG-TERM business. It requires patience. The gains are seen over years, even decades, not in 2 days.

He described their efforts to buy wood-fuel which is becoming pricey. They might buy land, 'clear' it to plant the type of trees they need [high heat producers with as short a maturity period possible] & then wait! It takes 5-10 years for these plantations to mature.

Year 1-2: Net outflow of cash to buy the land, clear & plant it. No biological gains either.
Year 3-5: At best biological gains. Not cash. Net cash outflow for maintenance. Fencing required or people steal the wood/trees!
Year 6-10: Harvesting starts. Cash inflow. Finally. Not 'direct' cash but through lower fuel bills for tea processing.

Kenyans get edgy after 10 days & here we are talking 10 years for 'full' benefits!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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S.Mutaga III
#114 Posted : Wednesday, October 10, 2012 10:36:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Aguytrying wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
The fat dividend from williamson tea was a one-off...people made some mulla...stocksmaster can atest to that fact..I may get in at 180 if it ever materialises


again? I think you are never serious about buying. 200 and run with it, the signs of the take off are there for all to see.

@aguy...at my neck again...in most cases we agree on the direction but not the price,if a stock doesnt reach my price,I simply let it pass...if williamson doesnt reach 180...i dont buy,if B.O.C doesnt reach 88 bob...i will let it pass,if they do reach,i buy more as the price dips...
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Aguytrying
#115 Posted : Wednesday, October 10, 2012 7:56:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
The fat dividend from williamson tea was a one-off...people made some mulla...stocksmaster can atest to that fact..I may get in at 180 if it ever materialises


again? I think you are never serious about buying. 200 and run with it, the signs of the take off are there for all to see.

@aguy...at my neck again...in most cases we agree on the direction but not the price,if a stock doesnt reach my price,I simply let it pass...if williamson doesnt reach 180...i dont buy,if B.O.C doesnt reach 88 bob...i will let it pass,if they do reach,i buy more as the price dips...


Fair enough. One day when you price target is reached and you buy, inform me and i will be proud of you.
the prob is There is a strong tendecy to wait for an even lower price when the target is reached, if you are immune to this. Theres nothing to worry about this.

Ill give some recent examples. When KPLC was at 14.00, there was a guy who said he will wait for 12-13. It never went there, today its 18.00. HFCK at 14.00, may not go back there but there's still a chance. Its either that people are bottom fishing, or they do not realize the heavy discount on the stock(which is even worse).
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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S.Mutaga III
#116 Posted : Wednesday, October 10, 2012 8:34:26 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
@aguytrying...what do you have to say about BOC kenya...your own veiw of the stock or the company,anything will be appreciated...i have been trying to understand its operations,forecasting its future,and it seems to have a bright future...but that is my two cents
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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Aguytrying
#117 Posted : Thursday, October 11, 2012 10:26:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
S.Mutaga III wrote:
@aguytrying...what do you have to say about BOC kenya...your own veiw of the stock or the company,anything will be appreciated...i have been trying to understand its operations,forecasting its future,and it seems to have a bright future...but that is my two cents


I do not know much about BOC. never really studied the stock or company.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#118 Posted : Wednesday, October 17, 2012 4:14:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
REA... Line in the sand still remains 17.50. Once popped its 20 - 21 levels.



VWAP @17.40/- Getting ready to breakout from 17.50/-


@hisah a very confusing chart this one. Head and shoulders in mid July - August signaling a strong resistance around 17.50 while the double bottom in September showing a strong support at 16.

If you take a year snapshot it looks rosy smile 17.50 is the last resistance before hitting 20s. Or check here - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=295494#post295494



VWAP @18.20 - well above the 17.50/- resistance. Next target 20/-
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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stocksmaster
#119 Posted : Thursday, October 25, 2012 1:17:25 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
Hunderwear wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
stocksmaster wrote:
With the index first approaching the 3000 mark, my stock picking focus is now on dividend yield.

For my long term portfolio, i am focusing on stocks that assure me at least a 10% Dividend Yield at prevailing prices. My focus therefore is now on the following stocks:

1. Kenol Kobil - At Ksh 9.30, and with management having assured investors of at least USD 35M net profit (EPS of 2.15 at 45% dividend payment policy) with a dividend of about Ksh 1, this represents 10.75%. Am hoping for a price dip below Ksh 9.00 to undertake massive purchases although am already buying at prevailing prices.

2. KCB - At a projected dividend of Ksh 1.50 for 2011, the price of Ksh 15 represents a 10% dividend yield. Am buying at price dips below Ksh 15.

3. Williamson Tea - Having paid Ksh 15 dividend last year on an EPS of Ksh 97, the company made 91% of this money in 1st Half 2011 alone. Am projecting an EPS of Ksh 135 - 140 for the full year. The company is awash with cash and can comfortably give Ksh 25 - 30 as dividends for 2011. I'll be buying at any price below Ksh 250.

As prices continue to dip, my 10% principle brings more companies into focus.

Happy Hunting.


Its 4 months since i adopted the above investment strategy and a good time to analyze the progress so far:

1. KenolKobil - Purchase Price: Ksh 9.30 ; Current price: Ksh 12. 75
Gain: Ksh 3.45 ; % gain = 37%

2. KCB - Purchase Price: Ksh 15 ; Current Price: Ksh 23.75
Gain: Ksh 8.75 ; % gain = 58.3%

3. Williamson Tea - Purchase Price: Ksh 186 ;
Current Price: Ksh 232
Gain: Ksh 232 - 186 + 50 (Interim Dividend)=
Ksh 96 ; % Gain = 51.6%

The three picks have ourperformed the NSE index (NSE Index has risen about 18% since then).

Am evaluating the three stocks in light of the prevailing market conditions, the capital gains etc and will soon post my next move concerning the three picks.

Happy Hunting.........


With such returns so far you can take a holiday for the rest of the year comfortably!!!!!!What your new strategy


Its six months (Dec 2011 to May 2012)since i started this thread and since then, the scenario is as follows:

1. Kenol Kobil - A potential buy out at around Ksh 20 will be at least 120% return on investment.
2. K.C.B - Current price Ksh 23 after a dividend payment of Ksh 1.85. (Ksh 23 + 1.85 = Ksh 24.85).
Thats a 65% return on investment.
3. Williamson Tea - At a price of Ksh 273 (Plus an interim dividend of Ksh 50) = Ksh 323
Thats a 73% gains and the end of year results are yet to be released where i expect a second dividend of at least Ksh 20.

Happy Hunting.


Seven months down the line and the scenario is as follows:
1. KK - (Purchase Price=Ksh 9.30; Dividend since purchase=Ksh 0.43). With the expected buy out, it seems to have found some price stability at Ksh 16. Am holding out for Puma cash which i anticipate will be > Ksh 20 (at least 25% more than if i cashed in now).

2. KCB - (Purchase Price=Ksh 15; Dividend since purchase= Ksh1.85). The price seems to have stabilized at Ksh 23-23.50. It is still undervalued; price target is Ksh 40 by April 2013.

3. Williamson Tea - (Purchase Price = Ksh 186; Dividend since purchase = Ksh 57.50). The 2nd half of their financial year was greatly affected by weather. However, they still managed to announce an EPS of Ksh 93 for year ended March 2012. Of importance is that for the last 3 years, the company has announced EPS in the range of Ksh 93-97 hence signaling a new high normal in profitability. Remove the biological assets (non-cash profit) component from the profit and this gives cash profit of Ksh 50-60 yearly. The tea prices are currently at new highs ($3.70-3.80 per kg) and with the precipitation experienced over the last few months, a possible continuation of this trend in profitability is expected.
The company has given me a dividend yield of 31% within 7 months!! Am holding onto this one as the future looks bright for Williamson tea (and also my price target of Ksh 400 is yet to be met).

Going forward:

I am currently accumulating the following 2 counters:

1. Rea Vipingo - At Ksh 16 - 16.50; The company announced above normal EPS last year (Ksh 7.79) which the market assumed was a one off. However, half year March 2012 produced an EPS of 3.47 (Versus Ksh 2.56 for 2011) which indicated last year’s profits were the new normal and could be replicated easily this year.
The diversification into horticulture seems to be paying off handsomely (they leased some land in athi river (130 acres) which they are growing baby corn, etc for export in addition to their horticulture project at Kibwezi (250 acres)).
Last year, they raised their dividend from Ksh 0.80 to Ksh 1.10, and I project at least a dividend of Ksh 1.50 for the year ending September 2012 based on a Ksh 6-7 EPS for 2012.
They hold enormous real estate in Kenya and Tanzania (In Kenya – Kibwezi: 22,215 acres; Vipingo (Near the exclusive Vipingo Ridge): 10,575 acres http://www.businessdaily.../-/wghxkwz/-/index.html
; and Tanzania: 36,660 acres) and are constantly increasing their sisal acreage. The diversification to horticulture is a sound strategy for this agribusiness company. This is a company to watch going forward.

2. KCB – The price of Ksh 23.25 - 23.50 is too enticing to ignore what with my price target of Ksh 40 within the next 10 Months and a dividend of Ksh 2 for 2012.
Happy Hunting.


KCB seems to have proven me right................I see a Ksh 30 on the near horizon and Ksh 40 within the next 10 months.

Happy Hunting


KCB should surpass the Ksh 30 barrier in the coming days.........Ksh 40 by May 2012 doesn't seem unrealistic now, does it?

Rea Vipingo now in the Ksh 18 region.....Ksh 20 in the next two months.

KK - The buy out seems to be dragging on very slowly..........the price of Ksh 14.20 forces one to hold. A target of Ksh 18 for some booking of profits.

Williamson Tea - A price of Ksh 250 by end of December.

Happy Hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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S.Mutaga III
#120 Posted : Monday, October 29, 2012 1:00:57 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
S.Mutaga III wrote:
10 months down the line and williamson tea now trades at ksh 200 and hfck at ksh 14...rea vipingo is still within the ksh 16-17.5 range....as far as am concerned,its time to pull the buy trigger again as I patiently wait for unga sub ksh 9.

....hmmm...time to smileLaughing out loudly
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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