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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
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mlennyma
#1151 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:14:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Supply at 15.70 starts to build up
And taken out.
2.28mn traded. 1mn+ shares traded in a 5 min window. They must have been lining up the supply.

they have hidden themselves for supply to build and strike at once,its not possible for this thing to trade this high price and high volume for nothing
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Realtreaty
#1152 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:19:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
I have been digging for news and have not yet got any,the digging continues.even wazua is surprised


Does someone know something we do not?
[Is an offer letter from Trafigura, Vitol, CNOOC or anyone else on its way?]
Anyone with news, please share! This offer also extends to @Obiero Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

last time kk was suspended, the next news must be a big secret to avoid a repeat.is it really from no where that 15.70 has been cleared to 0 supply awaiting 10% the next day?

From 12.15 to 15.70 in 2 weeks...
Had I seen this coming [2 weeks ago] I would have jumped in faster than KQ was crashing! This is rather surprising. Pleasantly so.


Liar Liar Liar
I had told you guys, but you always say I am dreaming even while I am giving a Prophesy.
Seek my earlier comments where I said it will head to 17 soon.Shame on you Shame on you
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, November 25, 2016 12:20 PM | Reason: Not specified
mulla
#1153 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:20:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Supply at 15.70 starts to build up
And taken out.
2.28mn traded. 1mn+ shares traded in a 5 min window. They must have been lining up the supply.

they have hidden themselves for supply to build and strike at once,its not possible for this thing to trade this high price and high volume for nothing

I cant remember the last time I smiled on watching price movement of my shares. Why couldnt today have been Tuesdayd'oh! WHATS COOKING???
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Aguytrying
#1154 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:24:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuy - Even KQ is +10% today on 430,000+ shares and zero supply. Not for me.


These laggards have very bad manners like the last few days in KK's rally there was always a laggard with a larger intra day gain. he he.

@mlennyma. I know the friday to monday reversal, but either way doesn't matter. 70% up today Drool Drool
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#1155 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:25:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
While many focus on the share price, I want to focus on the "intrinsic" value. There is no universal calculation for intrinsic value.

The ship has sailed for me to pick up more shares at 12 (or lower) but I can't complain as I have been buying KK for a while. The impetus to buy KK was bolstered by the "Post-AGM Discussion" in April 2016.

Bottomline: I expect 3bn in PAT [after adding back the KPRL provisions] for 2016. The stage for a strong 2017 has been set. Of course, the usual caveats apply eg no PEV, ceteris paribus, etc.

I expect the EPS to be 3/- for FY 2018 [2 years from now] and price to be 18-20 by Dec 2018.

* Higher volumes = lower Fixed costs/ liter = higher profit per/ liter
* KK is back into OTS cargoes. Lower margins, high volumes = Profits
* Expansion in Kenya [as economy & vehicle numbers grow] will pay off
* KK is pushing LPG and sales should grow in double digits
* Lubricants blending plant in 2018
* Debt used as Working Capital and not expansion
* The level of debt:turnover has reduced

18 -20 share price will come sooner than you expect

are you willing to review your timelines for 18-20 price from dec.2018?it's still possible with stocksApplause
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana
#1156 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:28:51 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
While many focus on the share price, I want to focus on the "intrinsic" value. There is no universal calculation for intrinsic value.

The ship has sailed for me to pick up more shares at 12 (or lower) but I can't complain as I have been buying KK for a while. The impetus to buy KK was bolstered by the "Post-AGM Discussion" in April 2016.

Bottomline: I expect 3bn in PAT [after adding back the KPRL provisions] for 2016. The stage for a strong 2017 has been set. Of course, the usual caveats apply eg no PEV, ceteris paribus, etc.

I expect the EPS to be 3/- for FY 2018 [2 years from now] and price to be 18-20 by Dec 2018.

* Higher volumes = lower Fixed costs/ liter = higher profit per/ liter
* KK is back into OTS cargoes. Lower margins, high volumes = Profits
* Expansion in Kenya [as economy & vehicle numbers grow] will pay off
* KK is pushing LPG and sales should grow in double digits
* Lubricants blending plant in 2018
* Debt used as Working Capital and not expansion
* The level of debt:turnover has reduced

18 -20 share price will come sooner than you expect

are you willing to review your timelines for 18-20 price from dec.2018?it's still possible with stocksApplause

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I'd rather be pleasantly surprised but even with a pullback next week the bar has been raised. Yes, it is likely to get to 18 sooner than Dec 2018.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Realtreaty
#1157 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:35:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,387
Realtreaty wrote:
splash! Splash! Splash!, the crocs are asleep!!!!
Actually it should be grazing at high altitude now of @17 smile smile



Applause Applause
That was It
smile
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Aguytrying
#1158 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:37:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
2011 and 2016 share price similarities.

- both occurred in a bear market
- Both times the company was making huge profits
- both times there was 3-5 shilling discount per liter

Are there other similarities, remains to be seen
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#1159 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:41:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Realtreaty wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
splash! Splash! Splash!, the crocs are asleep!!!!
Actually it should be grazing at high altitude now of @17 smile smile



Applause Applause
That was It
smile


Laughing out loudly well done
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#1160 Posted : Friday, November 25, 2016 12:59:44 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Everything offered at 15.70 is going, going then GONE... Mostly foreign buyers.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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