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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:http://allafrica.com/stories/201701050196.html Wow! Does Safcom buy GoK bonds? GoK pays Safcom then Safcom buys GoK bonds. A "gentleman's" agreement between the two? GoK is starving for cash at the moment.
How does a gentleman's agreement between the 2 work? Bonds are sold by CBK through competitive bidding while treasury pays bills owed by government.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,064 Location: Nairobi
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Liv wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:http://allafrica.com/stories/201701050196.html Wow! Does Safcom buy GoK bonds? GoK pays Safcom then Safcom buys GoK bonds. A "gentleman's" agreement between the two? GoK is starving for cash at the moment.
How does a gentleman's agreement between the 2 work? Bonds are sold by CBK through competitive bidding while treasury pays bills owed by government. CBK is an agent of GoK/Treasury - the borrower. CBK also holds bonds/bills issued by GoK/Treasury. GoK/Treasury (in consultation with CBK) can determine the cut-off point for issuance of GoK paper. Bob chats with Henry. Henry calls Patrick. Henry tells Bob what to bid. Bob bids. Patrick accepts the bid on behalf of Henry. All good. [Didn't GoK single-source the system from Safcom?] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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VituVingiSana wrote:Liv wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:http://allafrica.com/stories/201701050196.html Wow! Does Safcom buy GoK bonds? GoK pays Safcom then Safcom buys GoK bonds. A "gentleman's" agreement between the two? GoK is starving for cash at the moment.
How does a gentleman's agreement between the 2 work? Bonds are sold by CBK through competitive bidding while treasury pays bills owed by government. CBK is an agent of GoK/Treasury - the borrower. CBK also holds bonds/bills issued by GoK/Treasury. GoK/Treasury (in consultation with CBK) can determine the cut-off point for issuance of GoK paper. Bob chats with Henry. Henry calls Patrick. Henry tells Bob what to bid. Bob bids. Patrick accepts the bid on behalf of Henry. All good. [Didn't GoK single-source the system from Safcom?] Haha.... you've got jokes @Vitu....lol
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Metasploit wrote:Safaricom trying to defend 18.50 and on good volumes..Next support is 17.50-18
SAFARICOM ON A FREE FALL...KSH 18 CANNOT EVEN HOLD
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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And judging by the volumes 17.50 will print..
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Oh..we are concerned with it because it is the bellweather stock
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,177 Location: nairobi
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Metasploit wrote:And judging by the volumes 17.50 will print.. the whole market is wounded and bleeding "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:Metasploit wrote:And judging by the volumes 17.50 will print.. the whole market is wounded and bleeding Quite concerned with FTSE NSE KE 15. I don't like the chart pattern of the most liquid 15 counters 
If this index fails to hold 150 handle (the rate cap shock low) on the weekly, the fat tails will be plenty since it's moving ahead of NASI and NSE20! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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 According to the above cartoon, pre-Kibaki days, the NSE 20 bottomed in September 2002 at 1005 and the ascent started a month later with the Kibaki tosha declaration in October. Kibaki took over in Jan 2003 with the index(NSE 20) opening the year at 1385 and would cross the 2,000 level in May 2003 and the 5,000 mark ( last seen in the 1994 inflation related Bull) in October 2006. #DownMemoryLane @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083  With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! I think the latest KES slide is either a delayed reaction to the USD strength registered in late November/early December coz the dollar index has been mark timing or retracing since the turn of the year or more worryingly, it has more to do with KES weakness than dollar strength. My guess is the latter coz KES has been weakening vs the pound and even the euro. Either way, something has to give from a macros perspective. Cbk and Treasury are faced with tough choices here. Below 3000, the select band of stocks that have helped keep the index at respectable levels will be broken down with safcom being the main course for the bear. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! I think the latest KES slide is either a delayed reaction to the USD strength registered in late November/early December coz the dollar index has been mark timing or retracing since the turn of the year or more worryingly, it has more to do with KES weakness than dollar strength. My guess is the latter coz KES has been weakening vs the pound and even the euro. Either way, something has to give from a macros perspective. Cbk and Treasury are faced with tough choices here. Below 3000, the select band of stocks that have helped keep the index at respectable levels will be broken down with safcom being the main course for the bear. Unbelievable.Mnandii's prediction of 2576 might come to pass. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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sparkly wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! I think the latest KES slide is either a delayed reaction to the USD strength registered in late November/early December coz the dollar index has been mark timing or retracing since the turn of the year or more worryingly, it has more to do with KES weakness than dollar strength. My guess is the latter coz KES has been weakening vs the pound and even the euro. Either way, something has to give from a macros perspective. Cbk and Treasury are faced with tough choices here. Below 3000, the select band of stocks that have helped keep the index at respectable levels will be broken down with safcom being the main course for the bear. Unbelievable.Mnandii's prediction of 2576 might come to pass. And where is @mnandii. Mnandii should come here and tell me why should my kaninii bleed again after bleeding this much.  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:littledove wrote:mlennyma wrote:Can i expect 200 points slash today? The Nairobi All Share slumped -5.01% to close at 139.14 The Nairobi NSE20 crashed -4.41% lower to close at 3309.76 a level last reached in March 2012. I was expecting NSE20 to crash through that floor from the heavy bank stock losses witnessed today. The index now sits right on major support at 3300 handle. Next critical support comes in at 3000, which if broken opens up the GFC low at 2360.
@SPT remember the trouble with the euro chart? NSE20 has followed that chart almost to the T.  That was a Great call Where did the euro chart point to next. How badly will banking stocks be affected by this law, are we talking half of current prices or is this a knee jerk reaction More haircuts targeting THE TEENS for simba and member.  First stop for member, EMA200 level at 22.61. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,064 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! I think the latest KES slide is either a delayed reaction to the USD strength registered in late November/early December coz the dollar index has been mark timing or retracing since the turn of the year or more worryingly, it has more to do with KES weakness than dollar strength. My guess is the latter coz KES has been weakening vs the pound and even the euro. Either way, something has to give from a macros perspective. Cbk and Treasury are faced with tough choices here. Below 3000, the select band of stocks that have helped keep the index at respectable levels will be broken down with safcom being the main course for the bear. Seems to me that CBK was supporting the KES via various (soft and hard) mechanisms. That support can only last so long. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! I think the latest KES slide is either a delayed reaction to the USD strength registered in late November/early December coz the dollar index has been mark timing or retracing since the turn of the year or more worryingly, it has more to do with KES weakness than dollar strength. My guess is the latter coz KES has been weakening vs the pound and even the euro. Either way, something has to give from a macros perspective. Cbk and Treasury are faced with tough choices here. Below 3000, the select band of stocks that have helped keep the index at respectable levels will be broken down with safcom being the main course for the bear. Seems to me that CBK was supporting the KES via various (soft and hard) mechanisms. That support can only last so long. It appears so. The spent reserves in Nov/December support the notion. Cbk went in hard to support the KES when the dollar was rallying, then they realized midstream that they can't keep up the fight. This led them to reduce their propping efforts hence the current slide. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? Phew, sub 3000 it is???, over 10 counters on red by 1% or more. The lest are static still ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Next support, 3070 low of December 2011,below that opens up to 2360, the March 2009 GFC lows. NSE 20 down 33 points today to close at 3083 With USD Bulls on the driver's seat, Safcom on a downward trend and credit growth at an all time low, NSE 20 would need divine intervention to stay above the 3,000 psychological level. The 3070 support level is now under serious threat! FTSE NSE KE 15 index is oversold on all time frames except the monthly gauge!!! Extremely bearish. Extreme sentiments usually warn of a sharp turn ahead.
Intraday the index is down 1.24% and will likely close this way. NSE20 will likely close down 1% or more which means it will close below 3000 handle Are we already in sub-3000 territory? That would take the market 7 years back to 2009. The bounce from 3074 was a bit too steep to be sustainable. Some relief rallies before FY results maybe? NSE20 closes at 3047 breaking the 2011 low at 3070 made on Dec 6 2011. This index is also oversold on the daily, weekly and monthly gauges. Divergence noted on the RSI. The low points are not correlating with the RSI which is printing lower highs. Extreme sentiments zone as the bear extends into the third year with fat tails getting fatter.
The ensuing rebound after this overfeeding spree by the bears is going to be awesome. But as usual many will miss this rebound before the extreme negative sentiments can be reset. Then the bull starts a climb of worry then comes the euphoria phase and bang down we go again as the cycle repeats.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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