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Treasury Bills and Bonds
tom_boy
#1121 Posted : Sunday, December 23, 2018 5:03:42 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
After some thought, this is my opinion on investing in bonds...... it is not worth the effort from an investment perspective for an individual. It is only worth it if you are retired, have a pile of cash and want a regular steady income. Even then, the return gets gradually diminished every year due to effect of inflation.

The only way to really get rich in this world are

1. Own a successful business
2. Have a high paying job.
3. Inherit loads of cash.
4. Get extremely lucky in stock investing.


Bonds are a waste of time and money to the individual investor. They can only be used to park money to prevent inflation from eating into it as you decide what to do with it. Downside is that you could lose money upon selling early. This prospect is very real in the current situation in KE. I suspect those buying bonds now risk being trapped in by future increases in interest rates. Buy and hold will also erode your long term value especially if inflation goes up. Its a lose-lose scenario.

Infact, I now agree with @mugundaman. Real estate will give you ever increasing returns on your investment because the investment is fixed (initial cost of the property) while the returns ( rental income or sale price) will be inflation adjusted + a premium going forward. ( assuming no major catastrophes e.g demolitions, land degradation etc.)
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
maka
#1122 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2018 11:21:55 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
tom_boy wrote:
After some thought, this is my opinion on investing in bonds...... it is not worth the effort from an investment perspective for an individual. It is only worth it if you are retired, have a pile of cash and want a regular steady income. Even then, the return gets gradually diminished every year due to effect of inflation.

The only way to really get rich in this world are

1. Own a successful business
2. Have a high paying job.
3. Inherit loads of cash.
4. Get extremely lucky in stock investing.


Bonds are a waste of time and money to the individual investor. They can only be used to park money to prevent inflation from eating into it as you decide what to do with it. Downside is that you could lose money upon selling early. This prospect is very real in the current situation in KE. I suspect those buying bonds now risk being trapped in by future increases in interest rates. Buy and hold will also erode your long term value especially if inflation goes up. Its a lose-lose scenario.

Infact, I now agree with @mugundaman. Real estate will give you ever increasing returns on your investment because the investment is fixed (initial cost of the property) while the returns ( rental income or sale price) will be inflation adjusted + a premium going forward. ( assuming no major catastrophes e.g demolitions, land degradation etc.)


The best thing about this world is that you are entitled to your opinion smile To each his own...
possunt quia posse videntur
Impunity
#1123 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2018 12:39:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,331
Location: Masada
maka wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
After some thought, this is my opinion on investing in bonds...... it is not worth the effort from an investment perspective for an individual. It is only worth it if you are retired, have a pile of cash and want a regular steady income. Even then, the return gets gradually diminished every year due to effect of inflation.

The only way to really get rich in this world are

1. Own a successful business
2. Have a high paying job.
3. Inherit loads of cash.
4. Get extremely lucky in stock investing.


Bonds are a waste of time and money to the individual investor. They can only be used to park money to prevent inflation from eating into it as you decide what to do with it. Downside is that you could lose money upon selling early. This prospect is very real in the current situation in KE. I suspect those buying bonds now risk being trapped in by future increases in interest rates. Buy and hold will also erode your long term value especially if inflation goes up. Its a lose-lose scenario.

Infact, I now agree with @mugundaman. Real estate will give you ever increasing returns on your investment because the investment is fixed (initial cost of the property) while the returns ( rental income or sale price) will be inflation adjusted + a premium going forward. ( assuming no major catastrophes e.g demolitions, land degradation etc.)


The best thing about this world is that you are entitled to your opinion smile To each his own...


Eti inherit loads of cash.
Nkt
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

tom_boy
#1124 Posted : Monday, December 24, 2018 2:44:48 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
maka wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
After some thought, this is my opinion on investing in bonds...... it is not worth the effort from an investment perspective for an individual. It is only worth it if you are retired, have a pile of cash and want a regular steady income. Even then, the return gets gradually diminished every year due to effect of inflation.

The only way to really get rich in this world are

1. Own a successful business
2. Have a high paying job.
3. Inherit loads of cash.
4. Get extremely lucky in stock investing.


Bonds are a waste of time and money to the individual investor. They can only be used to park money to prevent inflation from eating into it as you decide what to do with it. Downside is that you could lose money upon selling early. This prospect is very real in the current situation in KE. I suspect those buying bonds now risk being trapped in by future increases in interest rates. Buy and hold will also erode your long term value especially if inflation goes up. Its a lose-lose scenario.

Infact, I now agree with @mugundaman. Real estate will give you ever increasing returns on your investment because the investment is fixed (initial cost of the property) while the returns ( rental income or sale price) will be inflation adjusted + a premium going forward. ( assuming no major catastrophes e.g demolitions, land degradation etc.)


The best thing about this world is that you are entitled to your opinion smile To each his own...


I used this formula to calculate inflation adjusted return

(1+rate of return) ^n
------------------------------ - 1
(1+ inflation rate) ^n

Correct me if I am wrong tafadhali.

The rate of return and inflation are expressed as a decimal, as in 12% is 0.12, 6% is 0.06 and n is number of yrs.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
tom_boy
#1125 Posted : Tuesday, December 25, 2018 8:11:41 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
From rough math, an investment of 1m in a 12% coupon bond over 10yrs with interest invested at 12% compounding annually and assumed inflation at 6% , will yield an inflation adjusted sh 2.2m. That is 120% growth after 10yrs.

This is assuming you can re invest interest at 12% compounding yr on yr. If you only manage 10% investment on interest, then your return drops to 100% in 10yrs.

This is least return compared to stocks and real estate. The danger of bonds is that if you are forced to sell before maturity, there is very real risk of losing money, going forward. I dont think the current low interest rates will hold but thats just me dreaming.

My conclusion would be if one has some cash and just wants regular dependable income, go for bonds. If hoping to grow your money into a sizeable kitty in the next 10 to fifteen yrs, work hard at your daily job and invest in stocks and earth.

Compare this with buying land. A plot bought at 1m, assume same inflation of 6% applied to the land and it will be worth 2.8m in 10yrs. I have seen land values go up much faster than this.

If you have more cash and buy and develop for rental income, you can see how the rental income will compound and far outdo bonds.

Botton line, in bond investing, your principle loses valUe over time. What you do with the interest is what will help you gain value.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
maka
#1126 Posted : Tuesday, December 25, 2018 11:43:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
tom_boy wrote:
From rough math, an investment of 1m in a 12% coupon bond over 10yrs with interest invested at 12% compounding annually and assumed inflation at 6% , will yield an inflation adjusted sh 2.2m. That is 120% growth after 10yrs.

This is assuming you can re invest interest at 12% compounding yr on yr. If you only manage 10% investment on interest, then your return drops to 100% in 10yrs.

This is least return compared to stocks and real estate. The danger of bonds is that if you are forced to sell before maturity, there is very real risk of losing money, going forward. I dont think the current low interest rates will hold but thats just me dreaming.

My conclusion would be if one has some cash and just wants regular dependable income, go for bonds. If hoping to grow your money into a sizeable kitty in the next 10 to fifteen yrs, work hard at your daily job and invest in stocks and earth.

Compare this with buying land. A plot bought at 1m, assume same inflation of 6% applied to the land and it will be worth 2.8m in 10yrs. I have seen land values go up much faster than this.

If you have more cash and buy and develop for rental income, you can see how the rental income will compound and far outdo bonds.

Botton line, in bond investing, your principle loses valUe over time. What you do with the interest is what will help you gain value.



Some of us have very simple goals in life...

(1) Always be liquid...
(2) Meet your obligations/provide for your family
...
(3) Travel the world.

Wouldn't want to live in a temporary world like a permanent citizen....
possunt quia posse videntur
Impunity
#1127 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2018 2:55:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,331
Location: Masada
maka wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
From rough math, an investment of 1m in a 12% coupon bond over 10yrs with interest invested at 12% compounding annually and assumed inflation at 6% , will yield an inflation adjusted sh 2.2m. That is 120% growth after 10yrs.

This is assuming you can re invest interest at 12% compounding yr on yr. If you only manage 10% investment on interest, then your return drops to 100% in 10yrs.

This is least return compared to stocks and real estate. The danger of bonds is that if you are forced to sell before maturity, there is very real risk of losing money, going forward. I dont think the current low interest rates will hold but thats just me dreaming.

My conclusion would be if one has some cash and just wants regular dependable income, go for bonds. If hoping to grow your money into a sizeable kitty in the next 10 to fifteen yrs, work hard at your daily job and invest in stocks and earth.

Compare this with buying land. A plot bought at 1m, assume same inflation of 6% applied to the land and it will be worth 2.8m in 10yrs. I have seen land values go up much faster than this.

If you have more cash and buy and develop for rental income, you can see how the rental income will compound and far outdo bonds.

Botton line, in bond investing, your principle loses valUe over time. What you do with the interest is what will help you gain value.



Some of us have very simple goals in life...

(1) Always be liquid...
(2) Meet your obligations/provide for your family
...
(3) Travel the world.

Wouldn't want to live in a temporary world like a permanent citizen....


Permanent and pensionable citizen!
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Angelica _ann
#1128 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2018 2:57:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
Impunity wrote:
maka wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
From rough math, an investment of 1m in a 12% coupon bond over 10yrs with interest invested at 12% compounding annually and assumed inflation at 6% , will yield an inflation adjusted sh 2.2m. That is 120% growth after 10yrs.

This is assuming you can re invest interest at 12% compounding yr on yr. If you only manage 10% investment on interest, then your return drops to 100% in 10yrs.

This is least return compared to stocks and real estate. The danger of bonds is that if you are forced to sell before maturity, there is very real risk of losing money, going forward. I dont think the current low interest rates will hold but thats just me dreaming.

My conclusion would be if one has some cash and just wants regular dependable income, go for bonds. If hoping to grow your money into a sizeable kitty in the next 10 to fifteen yrs, work hard at your daily job and invest in stocks and earth.

Compare this with buying land. A plot bought at 1m, assume same inflation of 6% applied to the land and it will be worth 2.8m in 10yrs. I have seen land values go up much faster than this.

If you have more cash and buy and develop for rental income, you can see how the rental income will compound and far outdo bonds.

Botton line, in bond investing, your principle loses valUe over time. What you do with the interest is what will help you gain value.



Some of us have very simple goals in life...

(1) Always be liquid...
(2) Meet your obligations/provide for your family
...
(3) Travel the world.

Wouldn't want to live in a temporary world like a permanent citizen....


Permanent and pensionable citizen!


Chasing fundis mpaka in your retirement & only ends at RIP!!!smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Yliett
#1129 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2018 3:29:32 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 12/23/2018
Posts: 38
Location: germany
I think that bonds of any sort are the best sort of investment for you. There are many other great investments but bonds are the most safe way. There are so many great bonds available for you. What do you think are the best sort of bonds for people on a stable income?
tom_boy
#1130 Posted : Wednesday, December 26, 2018 6:22:57 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
Yliett wrote:
I think that bonds of any sort are the best sort of investment for you. There are many other great investments but bonds are the most safe way. There are so many great bonds available for you. What do you think are the best sort of bonds for people on a stable income?


Eh?
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
173 Pages«<111112113114115>»
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