wazua Tue, Mar 24, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

45 Pages«<910111213>»
Mumias FY 2014
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
streetwise
#101 Posted : Tuesday, October 07, 2014 9:50:52 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Ngoja tu..they start a real estate thing or get Brazilian strategic investor
Back to top
  |
HaMaina
#102 Posted : Wednesday, October 08, 2014 11:30:51 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 931
For the past 2 days the trades on this counter have been exceptionally high in volume, there is a high chance someone knows something and is trying to maximize on rewards.
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
Back to top
  |
Cde Monomotapa
#103 Posted : Wednesday, October 08, 2014 12:46:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Njung'e wrote:
Comesa threat to Kenyan sugar industry is one big fallacy.If i may,is there a country in Africa that is a net exporter of sugar other than Mauritius?


See here http://www.bakeryinfo.co...p_new_supply_deals.html

As far as buying the rumor & selling the fact of last year's extension, that trade yielded 30%.

2nd round, concerns of cane supply kept growing. Spooked. Thus, took a 8% haircut & folded (2.15-2.05).

Now, I also don't view COMESA as big a threat as portrayed. COMESA's my territory. So, my major concern with MSC is cane supply.

There was indication from a DN article when a Treasurer of one of the Unions said it would end 'soon'. That's a politico type office too, so, 50/50.

The best remedy for cheap sugar imports is a market based one. So it's to keep an eye on those Futures. That's the most credible dis-incentive I can see.
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, October 08, 2014 12:48 PM | Reason: Not specified
dunkang
#104 Posted : Wednesday, October 08, 2014 4:02:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
A World Bank report on the sugar industry in Africa had this to say about Kenya
Quote:
Kenya – Five state-owned or controlled sugar factories, of which the largest by far is Mumias, (capacity of around 275,000 tonnes p.a. from 2.3m tonnes of cane. Listed on the Nairobi stock market in 2001). Unusually the industry mainly relies on small-scale outgrowers which has made the pricing of sugar cane, controlled by the Government, a politically sensitive issue. Total national sugar production is around 500,000 tonnes and is below potential due to lack of effective support from the Government. Net sugar imports are around 200,000 tonnes, but nevertheless Kenya has an 11,300 tonne export quota to the EU.

The way out of the mess that mumias is in today is ONLY by the company producing its own canes. Going through all the other countries highlighted in that report, ALL rely on HUGE SCALE PRODUCTION and not the Kenyan SMALL SCALE FARMERS PRODUCTION.

Link for the pdf report is HERE
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, October 08, 2014 4:15 PM | Reason: Not specified
dunkang
#105 Posted : Wednesday, October 08, 2014 4:32:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Back to top
  |
Cde Monomotapa
#106 Posted : Wednesday, October 08, 2014 5:35:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Here is the India food minister breathing fire back at the Millers. V/Interesting. For X-purposes, MSC should indeed renew & revamp the relationship with Farmers.

Government open to extending export subsidy to Uttar Pradesh sugar mills: Ram Vilas Paswan: Facing payouts of ... http://bit.ly/1saR1Lj

Meanwhile, in Zim & SA, local millers also seek protection. http://www.fin24.com/Com...Sadc-producers-20140724

http://www.fin24.com/Com...ngaat-Zim-unit-20140922

Yup, something gotta give.
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, October 08, 2014 5:54 PM | Reason: Not specified
Akenyan2014
#107 Posted : Thursday, October 09, 2014 9:58:51 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Here is the India food minister breathing fire back at the Millers. V/Interesting. For X-purposes, MSC should indeed renew & revamp the relationship with Farmers.

Government open to extending export subsidy to Uttar Pradesh sugar mills: Ram Vilas Paswan: Facing payouts of ... http://bit.ly/1saR1Lj

Meanwhile, in Zim & SA, local millers also seek protection. http://www.fin24.com/Com...Sadc-producers-20140724

http://www.fin24.com/Com...ngaat-Zim-unit-20140922

Yup, something gotta give.


In my opinion Mumias at this point is not worth analyzing in terms of fundamentals. It falls in the category of these laggards and only emotions apply. 4-5 level is not total imaginations.

@Hisah / @mnadii, have the charts changed?
I move the motion: that 2.00 is the new trusted support for MSC
Back to top
  |
selah
#108 Posted : Thursday, October 09, 2014 1:44:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@Cde & dunkang I dont think Mumias woes have to do with the farmers or shortage of sugar as they keep saying.

Most of the problem plagues the company are with the management.

Look at the company's debt management,then look at how they initiated big projects...their planning was flawed...in that 2 huge projects were launched simultaneously.creating a cash crunch that the company is now trying to deal with.

Finally the company farming methods and the inputs given to farmers seems not to have changed with the times...they have not looked into quick maturing varieties....wastage of cane has always been an issue ... and process of farmers dues has also been a concern....

The company needs new blood into its management...but as things stand the performance of this company will continue deteriorating...due to the archaic management style .
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
Back to top
  |
Cde Monomotapa
#109 Posted : Thursday, October 09, 2014 2:13:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@selah, all the points you've raised are true. My line of thought was 'no cane, no factory'. So, that is number one issue to be solved, the rest can be solved as time goes.

Ideally, I believe that replicating MSC's diversification investments would probably cost double now. So the err IMO was in the tenor of finance. The bankers should be kind.

Bottom line, is to have a factory running at optimal. Cane availability is foremost. The revenue generated will go a long way in financing the solutions to the other problems you've listed.

MSC is still a strong brand. I personally prefer the quality & its looks.

It's stocked as we speak (from Uchumi and lots of it) so there should be some activity going on at the factory.

Let's see.
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Thursday, October 09, 2014 2:16 PM | Reason: Not specified
Akenyan2014
#110 Posted : Thursday, October 09, 2014 4:18:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
It seems the only challenge is that none of wazuans and stock brokers want to be the first to attach a fair value to this counter. Be prepaired to chase it up there the day this bull will discover fangi

I volunteer: Msc : BUY target value: 9.00
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Thursday, October 09, 2014 4:21 PM | Reason: Not specified
45 Pages«<910111213>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.