wazua Mon, Mar 23, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

372 Pages«<102103104105106>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
kasibitta
#1031 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 9:21:05 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
Boris Boyka wrote:
hisah wrote:
Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon.


@hisah having this in mind coupled with prevailing economic conditions and tough times ahead into election period, a sub 3000 is very possible.@Aguy is smiling all along to the market always walking with cheque book.



http://www.businessdaily...0/-/3d7q3vz/-/index.html
Back to top
  |
winston
#1032 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 11:10:11 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/14/2010
Posts: 806
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon.



@Hisah - thanks great info. Just thinking (dont shoot me, am a layman)...if the you were to redraw the line assuming that the major lows are in 2001(2002?) and in 2009. what will be the projected new bottoming out level?
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1033 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 12:30:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
Spikes wrote:
am sceptical about nse regulators. conflict of interest. when cornered by the bear they' don't post the results. wapende wasipende stocks zitayeyuka!

I have complained about this on several occasions. NSE is just unprofessional when it comes to relaying information. This is how rival exchanges show up. I'll gladly support an alternate exchange when the time comes.


Quite unprofessional and may be even confused. But shouldn't the results reflect automatically? I mean they installed a system for automatic matching and reporting transactions?! Is the system overwhelmed?

And to note that we are still early in the bear!! Pray
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1034 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 2:15:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Pp 164

Quote:
...
Monopoly priviledges stifle innovation, so when monopoly power is removed, an industry is allowed to develop. In contrast, upon every single antitrust action against successful non-monopoly corporations (read Safaricom), innovation did (does) not
immediately burst forth. The reason is that each of these successful companies, in a climate of free competition, was precisely the one responsible for the immense innovation (e.g. Mpesa, introduction of High Speed Mobile internet) that had already occurred. These disparate results confirm the difference between the two types of entities.

We can now see that the principle behind the government's actions with respect to these disparate entities is the same: At tops, the government initiates force to stifle free competition and success ( attacks on Safaricom on alleged dominance); at bottoms, it removes force that has stifled free competition and success. This latter impetus takes two forms: withdrawing antitrust actions against successful non-monopoly companies and dissolving actual monopolies. With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur


Thus, if Safaricom survives the bear market, we should expect governmental attacks against it to reduce as social mood once again turns positive (i.e when the NSE 20 Share Index bottoms and starts the leg up, and if by then it will not have been broken up as intended by the gov., then the impetus to break it up will dissolve).

On the other hand as the bear market probes a bottom, we should expect monopolies such as Posta and Kenya Power to be broken up and new entrants to compete directly with them.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1035 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 4:26:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The permeating negative social mood cause government agencies to become sloppy. Such an environment is rife for terrorist attacks.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1036 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 4:40:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
A Socionomic View of Accidents
At market tops (the height of positive social mood) flying is safer while driving is dangerous.

The elevated social mood creates feelings of inclusionism. Flying requires joint effort with different teams working together to make the event a success. Thus enough attention is directed at safety.

The elevated social mood creates optimism. Optimistic drivers over-speed thus leading to accidents.

.................................................

In bear markets, social mood is depressed creating feelings of exclusionism (people pulling in different directions). Thus, for flights, this pulling apart precludes paying enough attention to safety measures hence aviation accidents.

Depressed people do not over-speed thus fewer vehicular accidents in a bear market.

Therefore, as this bear matures, ensure you limit frequency of your flying and embark on driving more. smile
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1037 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 7:22:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon.



@hisah

Charts Tell The Truth! Applause
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
mnandii
#1038 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 8:10:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The likely scenario playing out in the NSE 20 Share Index is a series of 1rst and Second Waves viz:



So here we have Minor waves 1,2, Minute waves [ i ] , [ ii ], and Minuette waves (i), (ii). The expectation forward is completion of wave (iii) in the series. This wave (iii) should prove to be the point of capitulation i.e it should be sharply down and at its completion there should be no doubt in anybody's mind that we are indeed in a bear market. In fact the periods 18th - 22nd October have the worst market crashes in the past. Pray

We can target the end of wave (iii) as follows:

Wave (i) = ( 4519.63 - 4080.83 ) = 438.8

We expect wave (iii) to be related to wave (i) by a Fibonacci multiple i.e Wave (iii) is usually 1.618 X wave (i); Twice wave (i); 2.618 X wave (i) or even 4.236 X wave (i).

Likely Targets for wave (iii) are:

1. 4257.27 - (1.618 X 438.8) = 3547.29

2. 4257.27 - (2.000 X 438.8) = 3379.67

3. 4257.27 - (2.618 X 438.8) = 3108.49

4. 4257.27 - (4.236 X 438.8) = 2398.51

Eh?

We look to options 1 and 2 currently. Pheew!

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Back to top
  |
VituVingiSana
#1039 Posted : Thursday, October 15, 2015 8:20:17 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Can you do this with 3 points? [pre-Moi 2000/1 being the first point]

winston wrote:
hisah wrote:
Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon.



@Hisah - thanks great info. Just thinking (dont shoot me, am a layman)...if the you were to redraw the line assuming that the major lows are in 2001(2002?) and in 2009. what will be the projected new bottoming out level?

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Back to top
  |
Spikes
#1040 Posted : Friday, October 16, 2015 10:41:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Is the market bull picking up or a deceptive social mood primed for a crash next week?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Back to top
  |
372 Pages«<102103104105106>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.