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Taking positions for 2010
the deal
#91 Posted : Saturday, March 06, 2010 10:50:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
i did a little research i came across this:

imagine if the conversion occured this way:

Applause The theoretical diluted price, ie the price after an increase in the number of shares, can be calculated as
Theoretical Diluted Price = ((O x OP) +(N x IP)) / (O + N) where
O = original number of shares
OP = Current share price
N = number of new shares to be issued
IP = issue price of new shares
For example if there is a 3-for-10 issue, the current price is 50c, the issue price 32c, we have
O = 10, OP = 50c, N = 3, IP = 32c and TDP = ((10x50)+(3x32))/(10+3) = 45.85csmile

conclusion:as long as the issue price is below the current price...its good for the current shareholder...this is just my guess work...for KPLC i dont know what will happen...source wikipedia.
VituVingiSana
#92 Posted : Saturday, March 06, 2010 8:47:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@ vvs how come KPLC has a low p/b value and a low pge value...yet earnings are on the rise...is it that seriously undervalued?...this is one stock i want to raid...

Yes.

@cnn @guru - We will b laffing. I just bought MORE of KPLC at 165/-. Now I am dead broke!!! No cash!!!

@thedeal - If it does not hit 200/- (include dividends + gains from sale of Rights) by 31 Dec 2011... I will buy u lunch! (Pls note I have had a buy since it was 135/-). I am not greedy. If I get 15% annual I am happy!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#93 Posted : Monday, March 08, 2010 6:59:14 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
8 March 2010 (AM Trading)

KQ @ 47/- (initial target was 43/-). KQ has dropped from its 2010 high of 55/-. The 3Q passenger numbers were decent, not spectacular, but KQ lacks aircraft to expand.
It should get a boost in June/July 2010 from the World Cup though this would be reflected in 2010-11 earnings.
Gains in oil prices since 31 March 20009 should benefit the hedge positions & contribute to profits for 2009-10.

KPLC @ 166 (target ending 31 Dec 2011 was 200/-). I think the sellers at this price point have exited. The balance sheet restructuring remains the major impediment to any significant upward movement but I think the upward momentum should start soon.

Williamson @192 (Target is 200/- but after 2010 results are released). Tea prices remain steady though I expect some weakening due to increased production. IMHO, 2009-10 will be WTK's best year to-date.
Note there are few sellers at these prices. All I await are the results for 2009-10 while I monitor tea prices in 2010-11.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
jimmy007
#94 Posted : Monday, March 08, 2010 7:02:23 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 3/8/2010
Posts: 5
Location: india
as far as from my advise Price targets are my exit points any time during the year. These may be revised as well.

KQ - Strong growth in destinations in 2009 & hopefully these translate into profits in 2010. The expensive hedges are burning off.
Horton
#95 Posted : Tuesday, March 09, 2010 6:41:28 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
26 Feb 2010 (Early AM trading)

KQ @ 49.50 (initial target was 43/-)
KPLC @ 172 (target ending 31 Dec 2011 was 200)
Williamson @135 (Target was 200 but after 2010 results are released)

I am comfy with KPLC target price but I am not sure whether Williamson will make the 200/- price though I am confident about their profits for 2009-10 will be excellent.

KQ seems to be doing OK. Even with additional competition in the domestic market, they keep adding new routes (except for enough aircraft) in the African market.




@VVS congrats, WTK has asks of 210, should settle at the 200 mark.

What else are ya holding??

Im into MSC @5 (truckloads) Sold out almost everything though over the last week
KQ @27
Carb(not too many, although I would love to get a few more)
WTK @ 80

Cash
VituVingiSana
#96 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 10:19:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
10 March 2010 (Noon trading)

KQ @ 50.50 (initial target was 43/-). Operating profits expected to be much better than 1H coz 1H was volatile & had strikes. Need new planes in 2010.

KPLC @ 178 (target ending 31 Dec 2011 was 200). Like a tortoise. Pole pole. Lots of disgruntled rumbling but great cashflow. Will jump after restructuring coz then clear path will be seen. Also split will make shares more 'affordable'.

Williamson @180 (Target was 200 but after 2010 results are released). Book value (land/farms, Upper Hill office building, majani, majani & more majani with rains)

I am comfy with KPLC & Williamson target prices coz I am confident about their profits for 2009-10 will be excellent. There will be ups & downs until results are released. June 2010 for Williamson + Kapchorua. Aug/Sep 2010 for KPLC.

KQ seems to be doing OK. They need to add new routes (hindered by lack of good/efficient aircraft) in the African market.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#97 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 10:20:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@horton - KQ, KPLC & Williamson
I did my research & these are my picks...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#98 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 2:50:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS your prediction of 200 for KPLC by end 2011 is a tad modest dont you think???

after lots of research i have the prediction of 200 by the end of 2010
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mv_ufanisi
#99 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 3:56:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Given that this is the stock market .. no prediction is truly reliable over the short term. Stocks could go up or down in the short term for very different reasons from fundamentals. And of course there's a lot of company info that is not found on the annual report. So you need some luck to bear out your predictions.
VituVingiSana
#100 Posted : Friday, March 12, 2010 3:14:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
I chose the longer term for all my picks... Why? Coz short-term trends are very volatile...

I am relatively certain that my picks will put up good numbers (profits) for 2009-10. Williamson & KQ year end is March. KPLC is June.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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