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KPC IPO - Bearish Noise
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
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HaMaina wrote:MaichBlack wrote:People need to relax. Monday is not far. Those swimming naked will be known that day!! Swimming Naked is the most relaxing and fulfilling swim ever. Its just that everyone else thinks your mad. On KPC Im waiting for my stocks to hit 25 and above by the end of this month. Uganda being a major shareholder and about to begin export of Oil is a definit + for KPC. KPC Shall rise.  Can someone who is savvy at the digital stuff please bring this post up and let us know KPC's VWAP on 31st March 2026? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,347 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:xtina wrote:HaMaina wrote:MaichBlack wrote:People need to relax. Monday is not far. Those swimming naked will be known that day!! Swimming Naked is the most relaxing and fulfilling swim ever. Its just that everyone else thinks your mad. On KPC Im waiting for my stocks to hit 25 and above by the end of this month. Uganda being a major shareholder and about to begin export of Oil is a definit + for KPC. KPC Shall rise.  25 bob aje na weak hands is only 2.56% It must rise upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. It must rise, but ideally it is worth KES 6.40 There is one question you have not asked yourself: Who is this who will get suddenly "clever" and decide to buy at above 9/= while there was a massive under subscription (only 10% of the shares on offer) in the retail investors category!!?? That would be the most confused character! You sit out the IPO at 9/= then buy immediately on listing at above 9/= plus commissions!? A grossly under subscribed share (for retail investors anong others). I am not saying confused characters don't exist but I doubt they will be enough in this case to push the demand and price up. Getting into the secondary market immediately after listing only makes sense if the IPO was significantly discounted and/or significantly oversubscribed and you are forced to buy the shares you didn't get in the IPO after listing. The market will always be irrational. Remember the IPO was oversubscribed and GoK will refund KES 5,400,000,000. It is wrong to imagine that the institution refunded would not go back to the NSE to obtain KPC shares. Anywho, sema Tuesday, Tuesday (in Raila's voice) Institutional Investors don't pony up cash but use Bank Guarantees so technically they do not get refunds BUT the cash/collateral behind BGs may be released to be reinvested/reallocated. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:xtina wrote:HaMaina wrote:MaichBlack wrote:People need to relax. Monday is not far. Those swimming naked will be known that day!! Swimming Naked is the most relaxing and fulfilling swim ever. Its just that everyone else thinks your mad. On KPC Im waiting for my stocks to hit 25 and above by the end of this month. Uganda being a major shareholder and about to begin export of Oil is a definit + for KPC. KPC Shall rise. 25 bob aje na weak hands is only 2.56% It must rise upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. It must rise, but ideally it is worth KES 6.40 There is one question you have not asked yourself: Who is this who will get suddenly "clever" and decide to buy at above 9/= while there was a massive under subscription (only 10% of the shares on offer) in the retail investors category!!?? That would be the most confused character! You sit out the IPO at 9/= then buy immediately on listing at above 9/= plus commissions!? A grossly under subscribed share (for retail investors anong others). I am not saying confused characters don't exist but I doubt they will be enough in this case to push the demand and price up. Getting into the secondary market immediately after listing only makes sense if the IPO was significantly discounted and/or significantly oversubscribed and you are forced to buy the shares you didn't get in the IPO after listing. The market will always be irrational. Remember the IPO was oversubscribed and GoK will refund KES 5,400,000,000. It is wrong to imagine that the institution refunded would not go back to the NSE to obtain KPC shares. Anywho, sema Tuesday, Tuesday (in Raila's voice) Institutional Investors don't pony up cash but use Bank Guarantees so technically they do not get refunds BUT the cash/collateral behind BGs may be released to be reinvested/reallocated. Well noted
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,217 Location: nairobi
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xtina wrote:wukan wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:stocksmaster wrote:mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation The KPC share should rise tomorrow upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. There's no logical reason for it to collapse. It should rise, but ideally via NBV, it is worth KES 6.40 I see it more rangebound 6-8 for the accumulation stage then eventually settle at 12 over the medium term. Glad to have locked in a strong head start core position, what is remaining to accumulate the dips. Not too worried about volatility with 97% under Uganda/Rwanda, govt and institutions Kudos Tina. With good volume support shown on day one, it is unlikely to dip within this week
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 399
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Realtreaty wrote:HaMaina wrote:MaichBlack wrote:People need to relax. Monday is not far. Those swimming naked will be known that day!! Swimming Naked is the most relaxing and fulfilling swim ever. Its just that everyone else thinks your mad. On KPC Im waiting for my stocks to hit 25 and above by the end of this month. Uganda being a major shareholder and about to begin export of Oil is a definit + for KPC. KPC Shall rise. Yes You and Me are in the same pot feeling nice swimming naked and not worried for having something at hand I know people aren't as poor as me and are waiting for it to dip on first days of trading to move in. Infct some of them already asked their brokers to buy below 9 saay 7 or 6. Very great this thing will not move to 25(may taake 2 yrs) but wait, it will saddle between 8.5 to 11.5 for 6 months before moving to 14 Gulf energy will enter at retail level and make a mark boosting the price  If they stayed away at IPO stage, why would Gulf Energy again join at retail level?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Plunge Protection Team (PPT) at work with express instructions to hold VWAP above 9. How long before they run out of cash and the stock eventually dips sub 9? Time will tell. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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VituVingiSana wrote:Kusadikika wrote:My 2 cents wrote:The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.
The underallocations were taken up by GoK
Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes. Exactly. It was a complete flop. Kenya Institutional Investors is NSSF which is GOK controlled. So what happened here is GOK sold KPC to itself. Or rather misallocated Kenyans pension money to overpay for an asset that everyone else refused to buy. OMCs keeping away should tell you something, they would have been the most interested. They understand the business better than anyone else and would have had access to the most funds. Brokers got paid KES 1bn+ to "shepherd" the sale by GoK to NSSF (GoK CON-trolled). GoK should have just transferred the shares to NSSF in lieu of outstanding/delayed remittances! LOL! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Someone call PPT. Stock currently stranded at 9 bob and looking to crater any time from now  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,824 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Someone call PPT. Stock currently stranded at 9 bob and looking to crater any time from now I said those that bought KPC to consider it a long term low return bond or I-Reit, @Wukan said i stop taking his Panadols. 2% return bond or sell at a lose!!!!! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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dunkang wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Someone call PPT. Stock currently stranded at 9 bob and looking to crater any time from now I said those that bought KPC to consider it a long term low return bond or I-Reit, @Wukan said i stop taking his Panadols. 2% return bond or sell at a lose!!!!! Earth is hard  @SufficientlyP
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