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Why i think Uhuru should lose and possibly will lose!!
Liv
#91 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 12:14:03 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
I've gone through this thread and I don't understand what it is about. Was @Masukuma trying to test a new hypothesis about people with much sh*t against those with little sh*t here?

And then I note that Alma has written more than 50% of everything here but not much about the hypothesis ...rather about his most popular topic " uthamakistan" .... I wonder how long it will take for him to fully cover this topic and get convinced that we've got his point.

Btw....Is it only me who gets so tired reading posts from Alma? .....and recently from Realtreaty in wazua? If only these two gentlemen could contribute less than they currently do?
Shotgun
#92 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 12:33:20 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/10/2008
Posts: 480
Disclaimer: Jubilee Googles

Maybe it doesn't matter right now but nevertheless I have done my final statistical simulation which I can compare with the actual poll results in 24-36 hours time.

Assumptions:

-Turnout in NASA Strongholds rise by +10points (from avg. of 83% in 2013 to 93%)

-Turnout in Jubilee Stronghold holds steady at 90% (as 2013)

-NASA takes Nairobi 55-45

-NASA gets extra +20points in Bomet and +10points in Meru

-JP turns Marsabit/Isiolo/Lamu/Mandera/Tana River red.

-JP adds between +10-15points in selected Coast/Ukambani Counties

-Other Presidential Candidates + Spoilt Votes take 1%

Results: Uhuru 50.08%, RAO 48.92%

The Tyranny Lives...

2017 Election Simulation
Liv
#93 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 1:02:17 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
Shotgun wrote:
Disclaimer: Jubilee Googles

Maybe it doesn't matter right now but nevertheless I have done my final statistical simulation which I can compare with the actual poll results in 24-36 hours time.

Assumptions:

-Turnout in NASA Strongholds rise by +10points (from avg. of 83% in 2013 to 93%)

-Turnout in Jubilee Stronghold holds steady at 90% (as 2013)

-NASA takes Nairobi 55-45

-NASA gets extra +20points in Bomet and +10points in Meru

-JP turns Marsabit/Isiolo/Lamu/Mandera/Tana River red.

-JP adds between +10-15points in selected Coast/Ukambani Counties

-Other Presidential Candidates + Spoilt Votes take 1%

Results: Uhuru 50.08%, RAO 48.92%

The Tyranny Lives...

2017 Election Simulation



Great job @Shotgun.
My view is that turnout will be lower across the board due to natural attrition given most of those registered as voters were in register pre 2013.

Aren't you too optimistic for Jubilee in Kitui, Makueni and Machakos? Also I doubt Jubilee will get the percentages you show for Kilifi, Migori, Bungoma and Kakamega. I however note that you've been conservative with your expectations in Mt Kenya region so there may be some balancing out.
An increase of more than 10% in turnout in the Western and coast regions may be too ambitious in my opinion.


Swenani
#94 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 1:08:59 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
Voter turnout projections
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
alma1
#95 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 1:09:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
Liv wrote:
I've gone through this thread and I don't understand what it is about. Was @Masukuma trying to test a new hypothesis about people with much sh*t against those with little sh*t here?

And then I note that Alma has written more than 50% of everything here but not much about the hypothesis ...rather about his most popular topic " uthamakistan" .... I wonder how long it will take for him to fully cover this topic and get convinced that we've got his point.

Btw....Is it only me who gets so tired reading posts from Alma? .....and recently from Realtreaty in wazua? If only these two gentlemen could contribute less than they currently do?


Oh please. Like no one is tired reading from the headteacher in blue? Hata adadhabu hauna. Just blue online coz you are special. Posting in blue is just rude.

The point is not dead. You are just adding to it. In fact since you are soooooo good in statistics. 100% of the people who opposed tp this thread are Kikuyus. Aii boss. I'll go further, uthamakistan kamemeaits.

We know you guys. Pushing the Uthamakistan agenda so that you can get a tender. Ama you think we don't know.

I can bet 100% here right now 10k.

The next fool who disagrees is Kikuyu. Just saying. And learn. I am saying the next fake moniker on this post who disagrees is 100% Kikuyu. And has Kameme on speed dial.


By the way mr. blue. No one hates my posts. I drive traffic to this forum. Ask admin. Unlike you who has to post in blue and Amores whose has dyslexia and cries for nandwa. I post long long long stuff. Which people read. Like you have just read....Kubaff!!!

Go vote. Kesho tell us how we should accept and move on. You will still be the guy who has to post in blue to get attention. Like a guy who wears oversized underwear so that women think he's.....

Just saying that thank God, I have never met you...Una ufala sana. Na pesa haikusaidii. Just saying as my personal opinion.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

Liv
#96 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 1:46:07 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
alma1 wrote:
Liv wrote:
I've gone through this thread and I don't understand what it is about. Was @Masukuma trying to test a new hypothesis about people with much sh*t against those with little sh*t here?

And then I note that Alma has written more than 50% of everything here but not much about the hypothesis ...rather about his most popular topic " uthamakistan" .... I wonder how long it will take for him to fully cover this topic and get convinced that we've got his point.

Btw....Is it only me who gets so tired reading posts from Alma? .....and recently from Realtreaty in wazua? If only these two gentlemen could contribute less than they currently do?


Oh please. Like no one is tired reading from the headteacher in blue? Hata adadhabu hauna. Just blue online coz you are special. Posting in blue is just rude.

The point is not dead. You are just adding to it. In fact since you are soooooo good in statistics. 100% of the people who opposed tp this thread are Kikuyus. Aii boss. I'll go further, uthamakistan kamemeaits.

We know you guys. Pushing the Uthamakistan agenda so that you can get a tender. Ama you think we don't know.

I can bet 100% here right now 10k.

The next fool who disagrees is Kikuyu. Just saying. And learn. I am saying the next fake moniker on this post who disagrees is 100% Kikuyu. And has Kameme on speed dial.


By the way mr. blue. No one hates my posts. I drive traffic to this forum. Ask admin. Unlike you who has to post in blue and Amores whose has dyslexia and cries for nandwa. I post long long long stuff. Which people read. Like you have just read....Kubaff!!!

Go vote. Kesho tell us how we should accept and move on. You will still be the guy who has to post in blue to get attention. Like a guy who wears oversized underwear so that women think he's.....

Just saying that thank God, I have never met you...Una ufala sana. Na pesa haikusaidii. Just saying as my personal opinion.



I hope you are getting paid for all the traffic you are moving to this site...to get your 10k too...lol...if it is real and not delusional.... otherwise no need to take all your time here and month end you've no rent.... that's just an advice from a 'headteacher '....btw once a teacher always a teacher.... that's why I write in blue...lol



alma1
#97 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 2:13:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
Liv wrote:
alma1 wrote:
Liv wrote:
I've gone through this thread and I don't understand what it is about. Was @Masukuma trying to test a new hypothesis about people with much sh*t against those with little sh*t here?

And then I note that Alma has written more than 50% of everything here but not much about the hypothesis ...rather about his most popular topic " uthamakistan" .... I wonder how long it will take for him to fully cover this topic and get convinced that we've got his point.

Btw....Is it only me who gets so tired reading posts from Alma? .....and recently from Realtreaty in wazua? If only these two gentlemen could contribute less than they currently do?


Oh please. Like no one is tired reading from the headteacher in blue? Hata adadhabu hauna. Just blue online coz you are special. Posting in blue is just rude.

The point is not dead. You are just adding to it. In fact since you are soooooo good in statistics. 100% of the people who opposed tp this thread are Kikuyus. Aii boss. I'll go further, uthamakistan kamemeaits.

We know you guys. Pushing the Uthamakistan agenda so that you can get a tender. Ama you think we don't know.

I can bet 100% here right now 10k.

The next fool who disagrees is Kikuyu. Just saying. And learn. I am saying the next fake moniker on this post who disagrees is 100% Kikuyu. And has Kameme on speed dial.


By the way mr. blue. No one hates my posts. I drive traffic to this forum. Ask admin. Unlike you who has to post in blue and Amores whose has dyslexia and cries for nandwa. I post long long long stuff. Which people read. Like you have just read....Kubaff!!!

Go vote. Kesho tell us how we should accept and move on. You will still be the guy who has to post in blue to get attention. Like a guy who wears oversized underwear so that women think he's.....

Just saying that thank God, I have never met you...Una ufala sana. Na pesa haikusaidii. Just saying as my personal opinion.



I hope you are getting paid for all the traffic you are moving to this site...to get your 10k too...lol...if it is real and not delusional.... otherwise no need to take all your time here and month end you've no rent.... that's just an advice from a 'teacher '....btw once a teacher always a teacher.... that's why I write in blue...lol





Stupid man. For those who don't know. There was a time I could not pay my rent. In fact I have been chased from a house 3 times. I was broke. These muthaf***ers think that life is funny.

So let me help you out Liv and your upus kids that you taught in your school.

Yes, there was a time I could not pay my rent. So? Ama I borrowed money from you?

Yes, there was a time in my life where my mother used to feed me Uji for breakfast and supper. So? Ama you came and fed me coz you are Kyuk?

Yes, there was a time I was chased from school coz my family was soooo broke we could not pay school fees for 10 kids. So? Liv came with his blue pen and finished my school fees.

Liv, let me help you. My family, not me was sooo broke, I bought my first computer after I had paid school fees for my brothers and sisters after 5 years of getting my first pay check..

Liv, when I went to America, I lived in my boss's basement for 6 months. Coz I could not afford a house.

Let me help you Liv. Headteacher. When I came back to Kenya I had 10 dollars in my pocket. Jinga sana.

My fren. Poverty doesn't scare me. I lived with jiggers and now my kids don't have them.

Liv don't be stupid. And if you are don't post it online.

Yet, Liv, I eat, I drink my Viceroy...And yes I'm alive.

I have never stolen money. I have never paid hongo. I have never followed hongo. I have never been paid to lie. I don't even care about your goddammed gov't contracts.

I get paid coz I'm the best in what I do. Worldwide. I don't market, they come to me.

Dummy.

Wewe bado uko na ujinga tu. Posting on wazua so that wazuans can see your not stupid? I don't remember a wazua who paid for my rent. But you can tell them I care soooo much. I only care for my business partners. Sio ujinga kwa forum. Jinga sana. I don't pray a lot but I hope that you have stopped teaching. Kwa sababu you have taught upus. And if you were a headteacher those kids are lucky you left. The only problem is that you brought your upus here.

Everyone on this forum can see that.

Your come back is that I could not pay rent? Mother f***er, please include the fact that my mother could not pay rent so we used to sleep inje. Jinga sana.

My frien...

It is personal.

Na tumezoea ujinga. I carry my failures like badge. So what's next from you? I have a kid from a malaya from karumaindo?

And tell Hardwood to say I'm an apologist. I'm from a gishagi. If you are really a kyuk, find out the real meaning of gishagi from Nyeri. I don't take nonsense from blue eyed boys.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

Liv
#98 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 2:44:23 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
alma1 wrote:
Liv wrote:
alma1 wrote:
Liv wrote:
I've gone through this thread and I don't understand what it is about. Was @Masukuma trying to test a new hypothesis about people with much sh*t against those with little sh*t here?

And then I note that Alma has written more than 50% of everything here but not much about the hypothesis ...rather about his most popular topic " uthamakistan" .... I wonder how long it will take for him to fully cover this topic and get convinced that we've got his point.

Btw....Is it only me who gets so tired reading posts from Alma? .....and recently from Realtreaty in wazua? If only these two gentlemen could contribute less than they currently do?


Oh please. Like no one is tired reading from the headteacher in blue? Hata adadhabu hauna. Just blue online coz you are special. Posting in blue is just rude.

The point is not dead. You are just adding to it. In fact since you are soooooo good in statistics. 100% of the people who opposed tp this thread are Kikuyus. Aii boss. I'll go further, uthamakistan kamemeaits.

We know you guys. Pushing the Uthamakistan agenda so that you can get a tender. Ama you think we don't know.

I can bet 100% here right now 10k.

The next fool who disagrees is Kikuyu. Just saying. And learn. I am saying the next fake moniker on this post who disagrees is 100% Kikuyu. And has Kameme on speed dial.


By the way mr. blue. No one hates my posts. I drive traffic to this forum. Ask admin. Unlike you who has to post in blue and Amores whose has dyslexia and cries for nandwa. I post long long long stuff. Which people read. Like you have just read....Kubaff!!!

Go vote. Kesho tell us how we should accept and move on. You will still be the guy who has to post in blue to get attention. Like a guy who wears oversized underwear so that women think he's.....

Just saying that thank God, I have never met you...Una ufala sana. Na pesa haikusaidii. Just saying as my personal opinion.



I hope you are getting paid for all the traffic you are moving to this site...to get your 10k too...lol...if it is real and not delusional.... otherwise no need to take all your time here and month end you've no rent.... that's just an advice from a 'teacher '....btw once a teacher always a teacher.... that's why I write in blue...lol





Stupid man. For those who don't know. There was a time I could not pay my rent. In fact I have been chased from a house 3 times. I was broke. These muthaf***ers think that life is funny.

So let me help you out Liv and your upus kids that you taught in your school.

Yes, there was a time I could not pay my rent. So? Ama I borrowed money from you?

Yes, there was a time in my life where my mother used to feed me Uji for breakfast and supper. So? Ama you came and fed me coz you are Kyuk?

Yes, there was a time I was chased from school coz my family was soooo broke we could not pay school fees for 10 kids. So? Liv came with his blue pen and finished my school fees.

Liv, let me help you. My family, not me was sooo broke, I bought my first computer after I had paid school fees for my brothers and sisters after 5 years of getting my first pay check..

Liv, when I went to America, I lived in my boss's basement for 6 months. Coz I could not afford a house.

Let me help you Liv. Headteacher. When I came back to Kenya I had 10 dollars in my pocket. Jinga sana.

My fren. Poverty doesn't scare me. I lived with jiggers and now my kids don't have them.

Liv don't be stupid. And if you are don't post it online.

Yet, Liv, I eat, I drink my Viceroy...And yes I'm alive.

I have never stolen money. I have never paid hongo. I have never followed hongo. I have never been paid to lie. I don't even care about your goddammed gov't contracts.

I get paid coz I'm the best in what I do. Worldwide. I don't market, they come to me.

Dummy.

Wewe bado uko na ujinga tu. Posting on wazua so that wazuans can see your not stupid? I don't remember a wazua who paid for my rent. But you can tell them I care soooo much. I only care for my business partners. Sio ujinga kwa forum. Jinga sana. I don't pray a lot but I hope that you have stopped teaching. Kwa sababu you have taught upus. And if you were a headteacher those kids are lucky you left. The only problem is that you brought your upus here.

Everyone on this forum can see that.

Your come back is that I could not pay rent? Mother f***er, please include the fact that my mother could not pay rent so we used to sleep inje. Jinga sana.

My frien...

It is personal.

Na tumezoea ujinga. I carry my failures like badge. So what's next from you? I have a kid from a malaya from karumaindo?

And tell Hardwood to say I'm an apologist. I'm from a gishagi. If you are really a kyuk, find out the real meaning of gishagi from Nyeri. I don't take nonsense from blue eyed boys.


I would prefer unitukane kwa maneno machache.... I don't read everything you write as it's too long.

Unataka those who support uthamakistan to do what? Unataka waende wapi? You've written a whole book here about your dislike /hatred for Uhuru and his government. You can publish a book now....lol. It seems writing about it relieves you some emotional pain or something?

Anyway...sleep well na usisahau kumeza dawa...you need to wake up in time and remember to go and vote for miguna miguna.... a promise is a promise.
Goodnight.


alma1
#99 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 2:56:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
Liv wrote:
alma1 wrote:
Liv wrote:
alma1 wrote:
Liv wrote:
I've gone through this thread and I don't understand what it is about. Was @Masukuma trying to test a new hypothesis about people with much sh*t against those with little sh*t here?

And then I note that Alma has written more than 50% of everything here but not much about the hypothesis ...rather about his most popular topic " uthamakistan" .... I wonder how long it will take for him to fully cover this topic and get convinced that we've got his point.

Btw....Is it only me who gets so tired reading posts from Alma? .....and recently from Realtreaty in wazua? If only these two gentlemen could contribute less than they currently do?


Oh please. Like no one is tired reading from the headteacher in blue? Hata adadhabu hauna. Just blue online coz you are special. Posting in blue is just rude.

The point is not dead. You are just adding to it. In fact since you are soooooo good in statistics. 100% of the people who opposed tp this thread are Kikuyus. Aii boss. I'll go further, uthamakistan kamemeaits.

We know you guys. Pushing the Uthamakistan agenda so that you can get a tender. Ama you think we don't know.

I can bet 100% here right now 10k.

The next fool who disagrees is Kikuyu. Just saying. And learn. I am saying the next fake moniker on this post who disagrees is 100% Kikuyu. And has Kameme on speed dial.


By the way mr. blue. No one hates my posts. I drive traffic to this forum. Ask admin. Unlike you who has to post in blue and Amores whose has dyslexia and cries for nandwa. I post long long long stuff. Which people read. Like you have just read....Kubaff!!!

Go vote. Kesho tell us how we should accept and move on. You will still be the guy who has to post in blue to get attention. Like a guy who wears oversized underwear so that women think he's.....

Just saying that thank God, I have never met you...Una ufala sana. Na pesa haikusaidii. Just saying as my personal opinion.



I hope you are getting paid for all the traffic you are moving to this site...to get your 10k too...lol...if it is real and not delusional.... otherwise no need to take all your time here and month end you've no rent.... that's just an advice from a 'teacher '....btw once a teacher always a teacher.... that's why I write in blue...lol





Stupid man. For those who don't know. There was a time I could not pay my rent. In fact I have been chased from a house 3 times. I was broke. These muthaf***ers think that life is funny.

So let me help you out Liv and your upus kids that you taught in your school.

Yes, there was a time I could not pay my rent. So? Ama I borrowed money from you?

Yes, there was a time in my life where my mother used to feed me Uji for breakfast and supper. So? Ama you came and fed me coz you are Kyuk?

Yes, there was a time I was chased from school coz my family was soooo broke we could not pay school fees for 10 kids. So? Liv came with his blue pen and finished my school fees.

Liv, let me help you. My family, not me was sooo broke, I bought my first computer after I had paid school fees for my brothers and sisters after 5 years of getting my first pay check..

Liv, when I went to America, I lived in my boss's basement for 6 months. Coz I could not afford a house.

Let me help you Liv. Headteacher. When I came back to Kenya I had 10 dollars in my pocket. Jinga sana.

My fren. Poverty doesn't scare me. I lived with jiggers and now my kids don't have them.

Liv don't be stupid. And if you are don't post it online.

Yet, Liv, I eat, I drink my Viceroy...And yes I'm alive.

I have never stolen money. I have never paid hongo. I have never followed hongo. I have never been paid to lie. I don't even care about your goddammed gov't contracts.

I get paid coz I'm the best in what I do. Worldwide. I don't market, they come to me.

Dummy.

Wewe bado uko na ujinga tu. Posting on wazua so that wazuans can see your not stupid? I don't remember a wazua who paid for my rent. But you can tell them I care soooo much. I only care for my business partners. Sio ujinga kwa forum. Jinga sana. I don't pray a lot but I hope that you have stopped teaching. Kwa sababu you have taught upus. And if you were a headteacher those kids are lucky you left. The only problem is that you brought your upus here.

Everyone on this forum can see that.

Your come back is that I could not pay rent? Mother f***er, please include the fact that my mother could not pay rent so we used to sleep inje. Jinga sana.

My frien...

It is personal.

Na tumezoea ujinga. I carry my failures like badge. So what's next from you? I have a kid from a malaya from karumaindo?

And tell Hardwood to say I'm an apologist. I'm from a gishagi. If you are really a kyuk, find out the real meaning of gishagi from Nyeri. I don't take nonsense from blue eyed boys.


I would prefer unitukane kwa maneno machache.... I don't read everything you write as it's too long.

Unataka those who support uthamakistan to do what? Unataka waende wapi? You've written a whole book here about your dislike /hatred for Uhuru and his government. You can publish a book now....lol. It seems writing about it relieves you some emotional pain or something?

Anyway...sleep well na usisahau kumeza dawa...you need to wake up in time and remember to go and vote for miguna miguna.... a promise is a promise.
Goodnight.





For a former headmaster, thank God you left. Where in your so called books I have written have you seen me saying I hate Uhuru.

Ama anasoma? Ndio umwambie, tumalize hawa watu? I a very clear. I hate Uthamakistan. That is the mbrogas and the hangers on like you who just care about being nice to the King. Can you read that pole pole tafadhali?

Na mimi sijakutukana. Don't be a kid like Amores. I just described you and your behavior. If its abusive, blame yourself. Carry you badge like me and move on.

My fren

I don't care if you support Uhuru. He's a nice guy. But what you guys are trying to do is evil and I won't support it. So don't be a cry baby here. Ati trying to put Uhuru or Kikuyus in your stupid agendas. Go cry for someone else.

So far, you fallas have called me a drunk, can't pay rent, an apologist. My luck is that none of you mother f***ers pay my rent. Jinga sana.

Go sleep. It's a human thing. But please when you pay my rent next month come here and post your ujinga about me. Aii. My frens. I don't know you. I don't even care about you. Ama you think I want to be governor of Kiambu?

And honestly stop. Stop posting in blue online. It's very rude.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

harrydre
#100 Posted : Tuesday, August 08, 2017 4:00:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/10/2008
Posts: 9,131
Location: Kanjo
Liv wrote:
Shotgun wrote:
Disclaimer: Jubilee Googles

Maybe it doesn't matter right now but nevertheless I have done my final statistical simulation which I can compare with the actual poll results in 24-36 hours time.

Assumptions:

-Turnout in NASA Strongholds rise by +10points (from avg. of 83% in 2013 to 93%)

-Turnout in Jubilee Stronghold holds steady at 90% (as 2013)

-NASA takes Nairobi 55-45

-NASA gets extra +20points in Bomet and +10points in Meru

-JP turns Marsabit/Isiolo/Lamu/Mandera/Tana River red.

-JP adds between +10-15points in selected Coast/Ukambani Counties

-Other Presidential Candidates + Spoilt Votes take 1%

Results: Uhuru 50.08%, RAO 48.92%

The Tyranny Lives...

2017 Election Simulation



Great job @Shotgun.
My view is that turnout will be lower across the board due to natural attrition given most of those registered as voters were in register pre 2013.

Aren't you too optimistic for Jubilee in Kitui, Makueni and Machakos? Also I doubt Jubilee will get the percentages you show for Kilifi, Migori, Bungoma and Kakamega. I however note that you've been conservative with your expectations in Mt Kenya region so there may be some balancing out.
An increase of more than 10% in turnout in the Western and coast regions may be too ambitious in my opinion.




Did you factor in new registrations since 2013 favored some strongholds more than others?
i.am.back!!!!
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