My little layman analysis shows Jubilee can beat CORD even after 'divorcing' MaDvD. However without MaDvD, there is now a higher chance of the game going to extra time (Run Off).

My assumptions are that there will only be UK and RAO in the runoff and that all regions will have the same voter turnout, such that the numbers below will decrease by the same ratio as will be the voter turnout.





UK RAO
Coast - 1,164,083 - 50%/50% - 582,042 - 582,042
N.E - 347,457 - 50%/50% - 173,729 - 173,729
Eastern - 2,092,883 - 50%/50% - 1,046,442 - 1,046,442
Central - 2,190,477 - 80%/20% - 1,752,382 - 438,095
R.V - 3,373,853 - 65%/35% - 2,193,004 - 1,180,849
Western - 1,434,987 20%/80% - 286,997 - 1,147,990
Nyanza - 1,954,756 20%/80% - 390,951 - 1,563,805
Nairobi - 1,778,903 50%/50% - 889,452 - 889,452
14,337,399 7,314,998 7,022,401
51.0% 49.0%


Coast - The Jubilee can attain 50% through Tana (Mla Mamba), Taita Taveta (Shabaan), Lamu and Mombasa being a cosmopolitan city they can definitely get half the votes). Not sure of Balala's influence in that though. Zipapa also with the MRC might not bring in a lot of votes from Kwale.


N.E - Dont think it will be hard to pull 170K (50%) votes in N.E (Duale, Hajj and the whole URP portraying themselves as the pastrolists party)

Eastern - Meru, Tharaka, Embu and Kitui (Mama Ngilu) and the Northern frontier can deliver 50%. Maybe even 60%.


Central - 80% will be a guarantee and RAO 20%. Well, am just being nice here. On a run off, this might be 98/2.


R.V - This is a tricky one considering there are still doubts if all of Ruto's 'constituency' is safely in Jubilee. But with Nakuru, Laikipia,Naivasha and Kajiado being in RV, we can safely assume Jubilee can attain atleast two thirds of the votes.

Western - This is the province that will break or make RAO. I have assumed RAO gets 80% of the votes assuming MaDvD supports him in the Runoff (which is also not guaranteed). If RAO doesnt get those 80% Western Votes, the game becomes even harder for CORD.

Nyanza - Well without a doubt, RAO will get 101% votes in the Luo Nyanza but Jubilee may scrabble about 20% in the Kisii Nyanza region.

Nairobi - Well, another tricky and interesting one. I assume a 50/50 Jubilee vs Cord.

So there you have it.
Could UhuRuto have looked at these numbers and decided they dont really need MaDvD? I think so...but then again....what do I know.

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Disagree, you are assuming that apart from Gema and Kales, all the other tribes are in Cord. This is far from the truth. Agree cord are better at propaganda, e.g all stations now are showing their rally in uhuru park including kbc, despite the fact that jubilee are in tononoka. Their followers are also good at attending rallies. I don't have time for that as most jubilee voters. That why u'll only hear our voices on march 4. And then because Cord are overrated they will start screaming that elections are stolen.

Source? Kweli hii ukabila haitawahi isha.