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moving average
lovely2010
#1 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 8:47:37 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
I found the following info but need more clarification if it works and if I can find nse sources on this topic.

Moving averages are one of the oldest and most popular technical analysis tool. This section describes the basic of moving average and interpretation.
Nowadays you get moving averages readily available on most of the websites.
To brief you moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices of a stock for most recent 15 days and then dividing by 15 the result what you get is the 15 day moving average.

How to trade on moving average
Suppose If the stock price is above its 25 day moving average, it means that investor's current expectations (the current price of the stock) are higher than their average expectations over the last 25 days, and that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on this stock and result is that the stock price may go up.
Conversely, if today's price is below then its 25 day moving average, it shows that current expectations are below average expectations over the last 25 days and this may bring stock price lower.
The moving average is used to observe changes in prices. Investors typically buy when a stock price rises above its moving average and sell when the price falls below its moving average.

mlennyma
#2 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 9:03:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Many things are theory not practical...well if it works is a matter of experiment
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
nahdy
#3 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 10:06:24 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/29/2006
Posts: 184
for nse, pls dont buy if price is abv d avg as it means
bus has already left...
the deal
#4 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 10:28:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Lovely why dont you apply your formula on KCB and tell us where it's headed.
lovely2010
#5 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 10:55:45 PM
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Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
Well, I read white mans stuff...its weird...its a matter of adding prices for 15 days divide by 15...there...u hav the answer for the following day price on specific counter....
Gordon Gekko
#6 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 11:17:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Why 15, why not 14 or 16?
lovely2010
#7 Posted : Saturday, November 06, 2010 11:41:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
thats the way it is. its a formula...you can try it...I hav started with mumias...
alustaadh
#8 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 7:04:49 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/6/2010
Posts: 222
Location: NAMANGA
moving average is only helpful when one is tracking the performance of a particular counter over a short period of time. it is useful when one is placing a buy or sell order especilly when the market is moving sideways. however it does not replace other analysis tools. personally i prefer tracking a share once it is trading cum dividend then watch it plunge down during the ex dividend stage and buy when it is trading 15% or more bellow the cum dividend price.
It is humiliating to be associated with thieves and murderers.
ndumesidubu
#9 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 9:00:01 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/31/2010
Posts: 11
Location: nairobi
Alustaadh i agree with in as far as the moving average not being a replacement of other tools,but that is about it, first of all the longer the period of the moving average the less prone it is to giving false signals, a false signal basically means for example that if you get triggered into the market(buy) when price moves above the moving average then suddenly the price starts moving below the moving average(meaning you are losing). Moving averages are used in several ways ..you can use a crossover technique where you take a short period MA like 10 and a longer period MA say 55 and once they cross each other then you either buy or get out of your position. You can also use a basic "when price moves above or below technique"..the other use of the MA is also for reentry into the market ..for example if you bought KQ at 44 and it rallies to say 66 , when the price moves down to say 55 and touches your MA then you add to your position(buy more) in anticipation of another rally( after the pullback). But the moving average is by far not the only technique you need to succeed , you can add an oscillator like a stochastic or RSI which basically shows you if the market is tired (overbought) or bottomed (oversold), or use momentum indicators like Momentum and Average True Range, to show you the strength/weakness of the rally.
Using indicators alone might not be the best strategy though , from my experience , you need to understand the fundamentals both internal (company) and external(economy) to be able to make an informed decision whether to enter or exit the market. Hope this helps.
"Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process."
Benjamin Graham
sheep
#10 Posted : Sunday, November 07, 2010 10:15:47 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
200 day moving average is very important as it shows the average prices for almost the last one year....10 and 20 day oscillate too much and may not give the accurate picture....concentrate on the big moves,thats where the money is.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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