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No Cash - Rebalancing The Portfolio
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VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2015 9:50:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
I have a dilemma. I see bargains. I have no cash.

I have some stocks which I like for the 3+ year period that is beyond the 2017 election.

I have given my reasons on multiple posts on what I hold these.

KenolKobil
KenRe
Unga
I&M
Williamson/Kapchorua

There are other shares here and there but the above are my core holdings. I think I am diversified but the question is what do I buy that is more promising than those above. And what do I sell from the above?

No more than 5-10 core holdings. I can concentrate better on managing, following, reviewing, attending AGMs, etc for only 10 holdings. I do not mind attending other AGMs or meetings if there is a chance it opens my eyes.

I don't want more than 1 pick per sector which is why I have just 1 Bank, 1 non-bank Financial, 1 FMCG Industrial, 1 agricultural and 1 commercial/trading firm.

As prices have fallen;
Centum pops out.
As does Equity & HFCK.
Britam too.
And KPLC [an old small position in place].

I am looking for value. I can wait 3+ years.

I have ZERO cash. And little is expected unless I sell. Ignore dividends with only 3% yields. I am not interested in speculation or thin volumes.

What would you do? And why?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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target1360
#2 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2015 10:53:33 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/14/2014
Posts: 289
Location: nairobi
do nothing
I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
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obiero
#3 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2015 11:34:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,227
Location: nairobi
sell still born KK and buy resurgent KQ
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sparkly
#4 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2015 11:40:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
I have a dilemma. I see bargains. I have no cash.

I have some stocks which I like for the 3+ year period that is beyond the 2017 election.

I have given my reasons on multiple posts on what I hold these.

KenolKobil
KenRe
Unga
I&M
Williamson/Kapchorua

There are other shares here and there but the above are my core holdings. I think I am diversified but the question is what do I buy that is more promising than those above. And what do I sell from the above?

No more than 5-10 core holdings. I can concentrate better on managing, following, reviewing, attending AGMs, etc for only 10 holdings. I do not mind attending other AGMs or meetings if there is a chance it opens my eyes.

I don't want more than 1 pick per sector which is why I have just 1 Bank, 1 non-bank Financial, 1 FMCG Industrial, 1 agricultural and 1 commercial/trading firm.

As prices have fallen;
Centum pops out.
As does Equity & HFCK.
Britam too.
And KPLC [an old small position in place].

I am looking for value. I can wait 3+ years.

I have ZERO cash. And little is expected unless I sell. Ignore dividends with only 3% yields. I am not interested in speculation or thin volumes.

What would you do? And why?

when the next bull run comes, you need to be in one of these ... Bamburi, Safaricom, KCB, Equity, Kengen, NMG.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Spikes
#5 Posted : Wednesday, November 18, 2015 11:42:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
@Obiero I have officially crowned and ordained you KQ Captain-in-Chief!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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enyands
#6 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2015 2:11:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
Spikes wrote:
@Obiero I have officially crowned and ordained you KQ Captain-in-Chief!



Sasa naona you eat,sleep , drink obiero . Vvs wants help .wewe natafuta tu obiero.Shame on you
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VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2015 2:11:45 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,351
Location: Nairobi
@Sparkly. I have ZERO cash so I have to sell something to buy any of those you mentioned. What do I sell? Why? What do I buy why?

In other words why sell KK/Unga/Williamson & buy Bamburi/Safaricom/KCB/Equity...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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enyands
#8 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2015 2:16:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Sparkly. I have ZERO cash so I have to sell something to buy any of those you mentioned. What do I sell? Why? What do I buy why?

In other words why sell KK/Unga/Williamson & buy Bamburi/Safaricom/KCB/Equity...



I think @sparkly is Focussing on the dominant market players . Bamburi is doing good since ARM isn't in that good ground after making some serious losses.you know safcom is dominant the CLOSEST is celtel. KCB and equity are the best predators on their food chain. His analysis is good though. Maybe he has a different reasons why
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whiteowl
#9 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2015 2:16:42 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
I would do nothing coz the counters you're holding have proven resilient through out the bear.I also think the downtrend isn't over by a long shot so any bargains you may be seeing now will turn premium and leave you regretting why you jumped in too early.
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Aguytrying
#10 Posted : Thursday, November 19, 2015 3:01:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
I have a dilemma. I see bargains. I have no cash.

I have some stocks which I like for the 3+ year period that is beyond the 2017 election.

I have given my reasons on multiple posts on what I hold these.

KenolKobil
KenRe
Unga
I&M
Williamson/Kapchorua

There are other shares here and there but the above are my core holdings. I think I am diversified but the question is what do I buy that is more promising than those above. And what do I sell from the above?

No more than 5-10 core holdings. I can concentrate better on managing, following, reviewing, attending AGMs, etc for only 10 holdings. I do not mind attending other AGMs or meetings if there is a chance it opens my eyes.

I don't want more than 1 pick per sector which is why I have just 1 Bank, 1 non-bank Financial, 1 FMCG Industrial, 1 agricultural and 1 commercial/trading firm.

As prices have fallen;
Centum pops out.
As does Equity & HFCK.
Britam too.
And KPLC [an old small position in place].

I am looking for value. I can wait 3+ years.

I have ZERO cash. And little is expected unless I sell. Ignore dividends with only 3% yields. I am not interested in speculation or thin volumes.

What would you do? And why?


Those are some good holdings. The only thing you lack is a large cap blue-chip as listed by @sparkly. Remember they move last down and first up. If you have Williamson... Do you really need to also have kapchorua?
Maintain a bond/mmf fund in the future to give you that liquidity.

You could also trim each holding to make way for a blue chip. Like a small small portions of each. Haba na Haba hujaza kibaba.

Or do nothing, they are good holdings, won't be the worst decision
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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