@ eboomerang,

I will start responding to your first point, the blue.What do you mean simplicity? Expound.
Lack of proper analysis to show to show the benefits? I don't understand. What analysis? All i know, most of the gov'ts world over,they don't "explain" themselves about projects they are undertaking. They look at the "need" of essential structures. Profit is not a factor.
The port will bring immense benefits. Have you ever brought a shipment thru' mombasa? I do every month and its a nightmare.With S.Sudan up n running,with its huge oil reserves and its wars with Khartoum,a Kenya Port is the only feasible port for them. With petrol dollars, they will have huge imports/exports. Lamu port/kenya stands to benefit enormously.
The rail,well, have you tried getting stuff to Juba? I have, once every two months. The transport cost from here[Kenya] to Juba sometimes is same as the buying cost. No regular freighters. With the rail and the port, i won't have to bring stuff from Mombasa,on to Uganda before it lands in Juba. Just do the Maths, the savings.
Currently,Kenya-Ethiopia biz volume is negligible,the rail will help open up that region,more economic opportunities.
The pipeline,well they got the oil and they will shoulder the burden of building it. Last i checked,Kenyan cars run on fossil fuels.

On to the second color,green. Did i read documentation? Forum? You mean gov't give documentation or call a forum for guys like you and me? Come on,get serious. What do you mean business model? Give examples,2 will be enough. The people/corporations that matter to such a project are the ones the gov't will bother contacting. Not you and me. That's how it is with gov'ts world over. When the Mombasa-Uganda railway line was being built, was there such fora? Documentation?
And yeah, the figures for
Lamu are "BIG" coz they are.

Finally to the reds, break even? Cba? Swot analysis? When the gov't is building a bridge, where a bridge HAS to be build,profit is not the objective. Providing infrastructure to its citizens is the objective. Again, that Mombasa-Uganda railway line, when was it to break even? Of course the cost and benefits of whatever undertaking MUST be considered,the benefits have to be more than the costs. But for a gov't, that's so different as compared to a private sector project. Think of gov't schools,roads, bridges etc,when do they break-even? Does that mean the costs out-weigh the benefits? I also don't think the gov't will bother trying to make people "understand" its projects. Those who can and want to see the picture,will. They won't wait to be spoon-fed.

But then again: Definition of a boomerang "something, as a scheme or argument, that does injury to the originator.".

wonders happen during election season ....

Some citizenships must be revoked here *SMH* cheers @mkeiy

Either i'm not good at explaining things or someone is unable to reason out of the box and see the larger scheme of things.


An example is meant to jog your mind and cause you to think of an issue in a certain way. Look at the bigger picture and not only the simple fact that you as a person will benefit by shipping using the new port.

It is only common sense that a solution is indeed required to solve the congestion in the current port. However, I believe an investor would like to know much much more before making plans to kick start operations based on the planned new port.


Consider the following scenarios:

-Tanzania is also building a new port in Mbegani and expanding capacity in some of their existing ports.

-It's possible that Somalia (strategic location) could be peacful in the next 10 year period (dependent upon global forces). It is a possibility anyhow.

-Air cargo becomes cheapers and routes are increased. Signs are already showing.

-Here you have an investment(Lamu port) which would turn to be self sustaining in say 20 yrs.

-There is a potential investor -a company like (B & Sons) who own a large logitstics business. They are considering ordering more trailers in expected business growth due to the newly planned port in Kenya.

Based on those few scenarios, what has really happened?
The region(Kenya, Tanzania, "hopefully Somalia") has collectively created shipping port over capacity and not to mention that air freight spins the equation even further.

What will happen when there is over capacity?
the shippers are spoilt of choices and therefore weild more power and are able to push down the handling costs. Alternatively, this may play as a price war between the ports and air freight.

Consequently, in a mild situation, the 20 years needed to pay back the huge capital investments of the port are prolonged with a few more years. Meaning we have to figure out how to maintain the operations there.

B&Sons on the other hand due to missing expected sales (some to air freight and goods being received in other countries) end up loosing margins and could be easily driven to bankraptucy.

That was just a simplified example of how things could play for various stakeholders.

Let's not bury our heads in the sand we really need to think the big picture through, read this article. http://blogs.worldbank.o...come?cid=EXT_TWBN_D_EXT

@tony stark....why dont you do a SWOT analysis for us and give us a verdict

Mine:
STRENGTHS/OPPORTUNITIES:

1. Tap into the exports of S.Sudan and Ethiopia - in form of tariffs

2. Employ the locals of Lamu in the construction and operation of the port, rail, refinery and pipeline.

3. The refinery at the port of Lamu will refine oil frm s.Sudan and any other oil that is discovered in Kenya and Ethiopia as well as Somalia.

4. Open up the N/Eastern and coastal provinces of Kenya.

THREATS/WEAKNESSES:
1. Environmental Impact.

2. Land ownership problems if not addressed early.

As a strategist what would help you make an informed choice?

@eboomerang, believe you me, its so tempting to call you a name or two. But i won't.
So as a trade off, pliz put your issues with the Lamu project in point form. Reason being, you asked about costs and benefits, as you mentioned in the above, we should not kid ourselves of the cost implications. Were you at any one point kidding? What else about your all-talk is pun intended? About the benefits, i have given example of how i, as a Kenyan will benefit directly,from my benefiting, hundreds will also benefit. Those who cry about port of Mombasa and the cost of taking goods to S.Sudan n elsewhere, are many. In the hundreds,extrapolate the benefits/numbers. Look at the bigger picture not picking on my benefit as an "individual". Mark you, all benefits are individual,put the individuals together and you get a whole section of the population benefiting.
About your nuclear example, PLEASE compare mangoes to mangoes,apples to apples. Examples MUST be relevant. You don't give examples for the sake. Add Value.
On S.Sudan n Sudan,the Sudanese economy is diversified. They have a much advanced petro-chemicals sector. Remember the US raids years back? Their agriculture is better managed and advanced than ours. Think Kenani sugar. When was the last time you had of famine in Sudan[North]?It just happened that the money from oil was a lot and easy, just drilling and selling. Diversification is such a complex issue,all sectors move in tandem. All in all, Sudanese economy is diversified. Take a tour of Khartoum.

Of investors following gov't "chest-thumping" blindly, please define/describe investor. The investor you are referring to. Because you are making them sound like idiots.
Building a port or pipeline is not like starting a muguka [miraa leaves] kiosk. You only need a stool, an old soda crate and shade. You can shift pitch whenever n wherever. Building a pipeline is serious business. DON'T mention Sudan here. This Lamu project will involve the 2 states, Kenya and S.Sudan.I don't know to what extend the Ethiopians will be involved, but it wont be much. Kenya is not Sudan to go to war with S.Sudan over something. Remember Migingo? How many shots have been fired? The investors as i said, who matter to the project will/have all the nitty-gritties of the project. That, you WON'T see on any of those sites you are surfing. Tenders are awarded everyday by the gov't, do we see the information on the internet/press? HELL NO.Lamu won't be different. The investors who matter will be briefed accordingly [not waste time with every dick n harry] the rest will be in the tender documents.
Projects of this magnitude can take even more than 20 years to break even. Think BOT, take a road build by investors privately, how long does it take to recoup their investment? Years if not decades. What if there are earthquakes? Does it mean it is not done in Japan, South Korea, Hong KOng? It is done. By investors, just as lamu will be done by investors,not the kind you are talking of.
About Tanzania building a new port or somali becoming stable, they might be threats to our Lamu port, but to what extend? Dar has a running port,why is Mombasa preferred over Dar? The same reasons that will make lamu preferred if not much better. It will take years before Somali can be fixed, leave alone it having a formidable challenge to Lamu. What's your point anyway? Just because they are or might build, we should run for the hills and not build? Its called staying AHEAD of the competition eboomerang.
Now! now! now!, how BIG is your small? A small time investor maintaining a multi-million dollar pipeline? I give it to you for sense of humor. But last i checked, this was not comedy central, so cut the crap. Oil pipeline maintenance is not done by small time investors. I understand the builder of the pipeline is already identified,several are lined for the port itself, then the rail builder will be identified soon enough,now, which other investor are you talking about? The B & Sons? So gov't should stop lpg/electrification coz charcoal vendors are going to run out of business?
As @ murchr put the merits of Lamu project in point form, please do articulate your issue[s] with the project in points. At least 5 points. Don't mention lack of information,this is not a small time investor kind of thing. Information is given to the intended. This is not like a general election,no universal suffrage here. Some persons are more equal than others when it comes to investments. Stop being a cry baby.

@eboomerang, any feedback?

@eboomerang
Are you kidding me? I asked you about freights, why haven't you answered that? Is that what you call "beyond your own box"?
Coz it is clearly,"beyond your own box",if you got any.
Respond to those freights before you refer me to that nation article. I read it and if you took your time to go thru the comments, mine is there.
The writer is simplistic in his approach. Its cool to be against the establishment, you know. But his,is hot air.
He talks of "small industries" among many other things. I deal with "small factories", but i can't maximize the potential because there are no roads to a ready market like S.Sudan. What will the small industries do with their output if they can't sell it? Eh!
He also says "if the port of Mombasa is complemented with modern railway there will be no need for a new corridor". How so? There's no railway to S.Sudan, no railway to Ethiopia, so how do you achieve the "no need for a new corridor" without building one? How do you handle the bigger ships when they come calling,if we don't build Lamu Port? Mombasa can't handle them,sea depth.Improved business volumes will demand bigger ships, how will "no need for new corridor [lamu port]" handle them? What is your voice of reason telling you? Railway goes hand in hand with road,with the road feeding the railway.
Your demigod of knowledge from Nation goes on to say,"the problem in Kenya has never been one of infrastructure",SERIOUSLY? Do you know how stupid most of those writers sound? Are we talking of the same Kenya here? Why do you think trucks/buses go to Kampala on their way to Juba? Why not cut through Lodwar-Lokichogio?WHY? How do you drive from Marsabit National Park to Sibiloi National Park on the shores of Lake Turkana? HOW?
Your Nation guy talks of local industries which collapsed, why do you think they collapsed? Did you ask yourself that question? Why couldn't they compete? Do you know its cheaper to transport a container from China to Mombasa than it is to get it to Rwanda? WHY?
High operational costs,read transport and power.
How can any factory survive if it's going to rely on your suggested airfreight?
With power from Ethiopia, Oil from S.Sudan and the LAPSSET corridor, those operational costs will come down and naturally, the factories will have a new lease of life.

And you dare give that stooge of a writer as your voice of reason.

Don't you know stupid reasoning has voice?

Anyway,back to you,what's your math on those "falling air freights"?
Is that how our factories are going to be revived eboomerang?

Quote:

@eboomerang, i forgot, air freights coming down? How down? Whats the charge for 1kg of air cargo from Japan to Kenya? Whats the charge of the same 1kg from lets say JKIA to Juba? Lets take your assumption that air freights are coming down. I will be extreme and take 1$ per KG to Juba and 2 $ from Japan to JKIA. Assuming a 40ft container takes 24 tons of cargo, it would cost 48,000 $ from Japan and another 24,000 $ to Juba, by airfreight. How much is the cost?
Dude, get serious or shut up.

1. Open up Kenya to the Ethiopian market which is huge given that Ethiopia has an est population of 90M.

2. Link the Lamu port to the port of Duala cameroon https://encrypted-tbn0.g...I25FYCu7UadY9sWk5_wFxtL

3. Open up northeastern kenya to development.
4. Offer an alternative to the port of Mombasa

Use google there is so much on the net