Before you start oozing emotions and passion here remember politics is game of numbers and to attain the numbers you must have a modus operandi on how to assemble your troops which happened to be tribal in Kenya,In other countries like Somalia they use clans and in Nigeria it is religion.So take "Kenyans have moved tribal cocoons B&*&*S*^T" away.
Now do your math.Central gone,Rift gone,Coast gone and now Musalia is looking for an exit strategy.
If Rao survive this one to be the president come next year then I will eat an humble pie and say he worship better gods.

Raila dio baba na mama ya ODM. If Musalia wins to be ODM flag bearer, Raila will walk out and start another party. Only a fool cannot see that without Raila, the survival of ODM is nie. That is why we need to create parties that are not identified with individuals. Who does not know that Raila is a dictator worse than Moi?

I think his goose is cooked and he should kiss the game goodbye unless he has another card below the table forget the ICC.

For some time now, it has been clear that the determination and the movement to ensure that Raila does not become president was unstoppable.

He was always going to be crushed at the ballot box.

Those hanging on his coat tails will make the collateral damage.
Mudavadi had to run to higher grounds to avoid being obliterated together with the target.

Instincts of self preservation must have informed Mudavadi’s latest move.

I don’t blame him.

I do not think so. Musalia's exit from ODM, if done bitterly, would heavily dent Odinga's bid. If I was RO, I would do anything to keep Musalia.

Musalia on hos own wouldn't go far alone. Kalonzo would do better.

Musalia was prevailed upon from western to grow balls.
It was more of an ultimatum than a request otherwise his political career would be on the line.
RAO must come good on the promise in the run up to last polls, that 2007 was his and 2012 he would support Musalia’s.
He must honour that MOU.
Besides, Western has a formidable political bargaining chip.

I think RAO wants MM to move out of ODM so that he can replace him with may be Sally Kosgei as running mate without having to do it so openly. MM knows it and that is why he has become assertive. This however will be a big mistake for ODM,like I said it before, other than Western there is not other substantial block for ODM excluding Luo Nyanza.

Much as I do not like Raila, I think he has been written off in the past and has pulled a fast one on his detractors. Only a very unserious (sp) politician would write him off. He may however have underestimated the gravity of the disadvantages he faces.

There has been talk that he is busy grooming PK to be his running mate, hence ditching Musalia. Musalia may have seen this as utter betrayal and hence his tough talk - the guy was to have been dumped and enticed with a Nairobi Governor position. Based on his trade mark, Raila would never accept a Mudavadi win and would simply form another party and contest nonetheless.

The ODM nominations are an excellent mock test for RAO. He is serious about winning the presidency so for reality check, he is giving himself a stiff work out with Mudavadi.

If he can't beat Mudavadi, then his thinking is that there will be no point going for the presidency.

That my friends is called democracy, all the other theories being fronted here by the usual suspects who write off RAO everyday in this forum are just that, theories.

Moi started delegates normination process in order to rig in his preferred candidate. Raila followed suit. Which group has more ppl, Luhyas or Luos? Would there be some Luhyas who would vote in favour of RO even when MM has put his hut into the ring?

Actually, a good question is, would any Luo cast a vote in favour of MM instead of RO for ODM flag bearer? Just wondering.