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LAND BUBBLE
nwamaina
#1 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 5:43:34 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/29/2011
Posts: 102
Location: Nairobi,Kenya
1 - Do you believe there is one?
2 - If yes when do you think it will explode rather than burst?

I do believe in one and 2......
Sad Sad Sad
tony stark
#2 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 6:09:00 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/8/2008
Posts: 947
WOW!
Thanks for an indepth analysis! Your thoughts are both stimulating and provoking!
Thanks for sharing your outlook!
<insert smiley>
Jaina
#3 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 6:13:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/13/2008
Posts: 558
I have never heard of Land depreciation. Even in Accounting theories, it doesnt exist.

But again, its not sustainable where the price of land increases 50times because a road has been built passingby the said land.
mozenrat
#4 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 7:36:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/18/2008
Posts: 796
Jaina wrote:
I have never heard of Land depreciation. Even in Accounting theories, it doesnt exist.

But again, its not sustainable where the price of land increases 50times because a road has been built passingby the said land.


depreciation and fall in prices (burst bubble) are unrelated concepts.. Indeed the second concept (fall in value/price) EXISTS in accounting - so called impairment and is taken care of via a revaluation.
simonkabz
#5 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 8:22:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
I think there is. When u have everybody selling overvalued plots, there is bound to be oversupply. Again, land is a non-perishable asset, once I buy enough, I wont buy any more in a long time-wavering demand. Add a few demolitions, frauds, increased cost of living....then combine oversupply with falling demand....
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
Jaina
#6 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 9:02:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/13/2008
Posts: 558
mozenrat wrote:
Jaina wrote:
I have never heard of Land depreciation. Even in Accounting theories, it doesnt exist.

But again, its not sustainable where the price of land increases 50times because a road has been built passingby the said land.


depreciation and fall in prices (burst bubble) are unrelated concepts.. Indeed the second concept (fall in value/price) EXISTS in accounting - so called impairment and is taken care of via a revaluation.


Thanks for the correction.

But revaluation is a complex subject alltogether. Thats why i said "Theory", in practice its a different ballgame.

http://en.wikipedia.org/...luation_of_fixed_assets

Lolest!
#7 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 9:23:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
The land prices issue in Kenya is compounded by growing middle class, rural-urban migration, improved infrastructure and high speculative demand. These are bound to remain, so dont expect a burst, guys have been waiting for it since 2004!
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
simonkabz
#8 Posted : Thursday, January 05, 2012 10:33:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
How is the Malili plots craze fairing?
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
a4architect.com
#9 Posted : Friday, January 06, 2012 7:31:44 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
my guess is that with the county govt, demand for housing around nairobi will easen and spread evenly throughout kenya. This wil result in nairobi land prices falling.
@ jaina. true. The price of land in anirobi near major roads is overvalued due to high demand. Once the greater easternand southern bypasses are constructed plus effect of county govt, this demand will reduce.
Price of land in other developed countries e.g South Africa ,Egypt is lower for the same infrastructure and proximity to a city.
http://www.koskerealty.com/acreage.html
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
QW25081985
#10 Posted : Friday, January 06, 2012 9:13:53 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
Lolest! wrote:
The land prices issue in Kenya is compounded by growing middle class, rural-urban migration, improved infrastructure and high speculative demand. These are bound to remain, so dont expect a burst, guys have been waiting for it since 2004!


are you saying there's nothing like a land bubble/Real estate bubble ???In comparison to the stock-market bubbles, real estate bubbles take longer to deflate: prices decline slower because the real estate market is less liquid.Commercial real estate generally moves in tandem with the residential properties, since both are affected by many of same factors (e.g., interest rates) and share the "wealth effect" of booms.
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