KE econ having experienced 2 back to back quarters of GDP growth slowdown is technically in a recession. Going forward how will the econ recovery play out in an election year? Will it be a V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recovery? Looking at CBK's and treasury's moves, a U-shaped recovery looks like it. That means I'm looking at 2013 Q2 starting a major bullish run as the GDP expansion recovers out of recession and charges full steam supported by growth esp cheap power & cheap loans as CBK expands M2 supply. A faster successful military mission conclusion in Somali will also add to the bullish momentum (Without election risks I could expect a V-shaped recovery). However, if the elections become spooky, well my expectations will just be wishful thinking. Also note that euroland debt bomb is the big spanner globally. A disorderly breakdown will definite spillover globally.

What say you about your recovery expectations?

http://bit.ly/lTCys -
short video about recession

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-shaped_recession - recession recovery shapes.

Merry Xmas
As for 2012, tighten your seatbelts on spending. Better to be prepared than not...


Update - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pwincsv4E0

@hisah I thought your economics knowledge was pretty strong... But after this fallacy of a topic I cant be too sure any more..

Anyway point of education..

A recession can be considered if a country has undergone two or more quarters of NEGATIVE growth..

Although kenya is experiencing slowing economic growth it is still very much POSITIVE (+3.6%) so no recession here yet...

please review your potentially misleading statements above.

MERRY XMAS WAZUA!!

@youcant its negative year on year growth

@hisah maybe U should go back to Xul

You can that to the bank, Kenya needs a miracle to prevent a recession.

This guy too. Probably deportation as well.

Probably this is what Atwoli wanted expedited. I repeat; probably.

YES! YES! YES! #yamaworkers

Ah, I can see the thread has become thorny. Perfect

The term recession has many economists fighting for its definition. The one I chose is the MOST unpopular among the economist realm. It's at times referred to as 'newspaper' definition thus @qw's alarmist conclusion

What am I up to? Well the term current recession on this thread is forecasting the 2012 econ trend. I like calling trends before they take effect. So in 2012 it will be a current topic. So will @guru see the negative growth to be satisfied as the 2012 wears on

Always trend forecasting... That's me at my annoying best against everyone

@ybc - is back with a buy call but with caution

By the end of 2012, gok will have paid me dearly for buying their paper. @scubidu once asked why I was shorting KES before it zoomed past 90 to 107

When oil discovery is announced, u can even buy paka & total instead of kk

Happy holidays

hisah is spot on.... why aren't you guys reading the signs? inverted yield curve= likely recession , however monetary contraction= DEFINITE RECESSION,if you want to compare apples and apples go back to a period of monetary contraction and check out how the economy fared...of the top of my head i can think of two
1.post goldenberg era
2.post SAP(structural adjustment programs) era

2012 will def be bleak banks wont lend, add the silly bill capping lending rates and well... remember our M3 to GDP ratio is at 46pct, so unless the authorities create money the economy will tank, there's no incumbent running for office so need for an economic boom, doubt even 2013 will be a boom year, even if we discover oil we wont see benefits that soon