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Mumias Sugar Company Interim Results.
jammo
#1 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 5:30:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
Profit before tax fell 73.3%

Earnings Per Share fell 70%..

Negative cashflow balance to tune of 648million means on a pershare basis..they r runnin on debt...

I totally have nothing to say.

The race is not always to the swift..nor the battle always to the strong..nor food always to the wise..nor riches always to the intelligent..favor is not always to the skilled..or learned..but time and chance happens to all. Ecl9:5..
mukiha
#2 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 6:32:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
HY EPS = sh0.11

The board is 'cautiously optimistic that the full year results will be comparable to those achieved last year' My guess is that they wont!

Thus projected FY EPS = sh0.22.....very soon the price will touch 2bob...if not today!

Brace yourselves
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Evolve
#3 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 6:34:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 96
Anyone with the results,please post them.
Apple Bees
#4 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 6:34:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/5/2008
Posts: 390
@jammo...thanks. i think my emotional attachment to mumias shud b cut off now. the share price could dip to 3 bob!

on another note,thanks for the Eccl quote...the race is neither to the swift nor to the strong...but chance favors them all. that is stocks




Where else would it be?
wakahoro
#5 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 6:43:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/21/2008
Posts: 6
Could it be a result of the Poll violence? Bad whether conditions?Mismanagement?

Whatever the cause,should one who has those shares just cut there losses and dump them?

Is all lost? I bought mine @ 14 shillings so right now the value has dropped by more than 50% !!!!


wakahoro
Gordon Gekko
#6 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 7:08:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
In cash flow stmt,loan taken of 2.4B. Is this for the generation project? The revenue streams from generation should start coming in April. I see a future,but not in sugar(which will be relegated to a by-product,with elec being the main deal). I think it is a good deal at ksh 4.
Chaka
#7 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 7:24:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/16/2007
Posts: 2,114
Does anyone know what became of the case MSC had logded against an importer who imported a large quantity of cheap sugar in 'Mumias Sugar' branded sacks?
Newhere
#8 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 8:08:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/14/2008
Posts: 10
check the nse website
jammo
#9 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 8:31:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
Manufacturin industry had a terrible 6months endin dec 08..i doubt many are eager to publish interim result....n Mumias is the first.. atleast u understand why eveready results are 2weeks late from traditional reportin date..

The race is not always to the swift..nor the battle always to the strong..nor food always to the wise..nor riches always to the intelligent..favor is not always to the skilled..or learned..but time and chance happens to all. Ecl9:5..
kyt
#10 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 10:24:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
this is terrible news to the investors and indeed the market in general Damn what happens to those who bought at the second IPO at 49 bob pity those guys.

hasta la vista
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
eli
#11 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 10:34:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 294
Fear set in at NSE,and people started bidding at 4bob ( lowest)! I managed to sell mine at 5bob,making a cool 1bob loss!

Anyway,fear not! Demand is slowly building........I guess 3bob or even 2bob is far too low! The share could settle at 4-5bob range! Well,that is my guess!

But you shall remember the LORD your God,for it is He who is giving you power to make wealth,that He may confirm His covenant which He swore to your fathers,as it is this day. Deu 8:18
mypesa
#12 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 10:38:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/14/2007
Posts: 111
being a culprit of the 2nd ipo @49 i have been able to average to 9.75

with 13800 shares would it be advisable to sell at current losses or HANG on with hope of better price.

jammo,eli,njunge et al please advice...thanks


anyone who lives within their means suffer from lack of imagination
Even In The Most Severe Drought In The Jungle Lions Will Never Feed On Grass.
jammo
#13 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 10:38:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@kyt.... Not really. May be next time investors won't peg such high dreams on decision to buy a stock... Stock down 15% today..what do u do? Ignore lamenting n cursing. What decision do u need to make n make now! Sorry for the word but 'shit' happens. Make the best of it. Otherwise..disclaimers are nice to consider while takin advice. Mumias as a longterm investment has suddenly increased that longterm definition to much much longer. Portfolio realignin.... cost average...or write off as loss and salvage what u can... What will u do? Do it soon.

The race is not always to the swift..nor the battle always to the strong..nor food always to the wise..nor riches always to the intelligent..favor is not always to the skilled..or learned..but time and chance happens to all. Ecl9:5..
Njunge
#14 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:03:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@mypesa,

Can you be patient for a period of not less than 12 months?


Guka wa bijuti...
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
mypesa
#15 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:22:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/14/2007
Posts: 111
@ njunge

yes i can wait till end of the year as long as the patience pays .my fear was i keep holding for so long yet the price may stagnate.

thanks


anyone who lives within their means suffer from lack of imagination
Even In The Most Severe Drought In The Jungle Lions Will Never Feed On Grass.
Kiz
#16 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:44:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 13
doom can only be to the daily traders. The directors have clearly indicated that they may get the same eps as last year,meaning that end year earnings may really be good. putting cogeneration into account,the share looks to be a bargain. You may also have noted that in the last month or so,the sugar price was increased from about ksh 145-150 to 160-165. All these are extra earnings. my advice will be buy even more when it hits below 5. by august it mat be up 3x. only the very short term traders can run for dear life but in any case they may buy @ 4.5 and sale @ 5.5 in short term and make money.


Kim
eli
#17 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:49:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 294
So if you decide to sell now,then you shall have half of you cash...........as in 9.75/2 = 4.8

That's the bid price people were placing today...............It went as high as 5.20bob,before dropping to 5bob.

In short,you'll get half of your cash back. Now,we are in this business to make money. Not to make losses! I would suggest that you wait.......................Sample this:

While I was at the market today,I overhead a lady speak thus: ' I swear,I will never take in a loss. I once took in a loss when Equity was 312bob,and it went to 170bob and she sold the shares and make a cool loss. Her 0.5M was reduced considerably! She has since learnt to wait,even if its 5 years. This time round,she owns mumias shares which she bought at 12bob,and now the dem share is 5bob. Her verdict: She will wait.'

Selling shares at a loss is giving away 'free' money to someone else! Someone who is ready to wait and make a profit from the same shares! So at that instance you are making a loss and he is making a profit (by buying from you). My verdict: wait,unless there is no otherwise,sell the dem thing: Take in the loss!


But you shall remember the LORD your God,for it is He who is giving you power to make wealth,that He may confirm His covenant which He swore to your fathers,as it is this day. Deu 8:18
Mainat
#18 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:50:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Memo to investors: before putting cash down. Think SWOT and how many of these the CEO can and is doing something about.
FACT: There is a supply gap of around 200m bags of sugar in Kenya. What has Kidero done to fill this gap since he came on board in 2003?
FACT: The power generation project is unlikely to add that much to Mumias’ PAT. Mumias is still a sugar company.
Agriculture is a sector where the uncontrollable factors outweigh those you can control. Investor beware.

www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
mv ufanisi
#19 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:50:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 108
I bought this company at 60 in 2007 and was lucky to get off at 30. Truth is after analyzing the company I knew it should have been worth about 6kshs but I was blinded by the market sentiment at that time.
Time is the friend of the good company but the enemy of the bad company.
The main problem with this company seems to be ownership - if it was more privately owned they would be less likely to make as many blunders and for politicians to take advantage of the company.
However at some point it's bound to get very cheap but buying a bad company may eventually lead to losses.
Njunge
#20 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:53:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
First half of2009 will include stream of income from power.Unit likely to start ops late April but before then second half may be more dismal.If the price drops further,pick and bring down you ave. price..........


Guka wa bijuti...
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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