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Nov Inflation update: 19.72% up from 18.9% in Oct
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Mainat
#1 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 10:50:57 AM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
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via B Gachenge before you ask rink.
This means CBR is unlikely to be cut on Thursday. NSE baado.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Eric_Nyamu
#2 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 10:58:21 AM
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Joined: 10/6/2011
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aiiiiiiiiiiiii !!!!!!!!!!!!!! but its raining ???
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the deal
#3 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:00:04 AM
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Thats an alarming figure I now see CBR being hiked by another 100 basis points...the bourse has factored in these bad news smile
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mwekez@ji
#4 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:09:03 AM
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youcan'tstopusnow
#5 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:15:56 AM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
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Location: Black Africa
Mainat wrote:
via B Gachenge before you ask rink.
This means CBR is unlikely to be cut on Thursday. NSE baado.

Catalyst for sub 3K?Sad
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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mwekez@ji
#6 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:18:26 AM
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the deal wrote:
Thats an alarming figure I now see CBR being hiked by another 100 basis points...the bourse has factored in these bad news smile


... T Bill rates ^^^^ smile
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Cde Monomotapa
#7 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:32:25 AM
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I see no use for a rate hike this week. Inflation (fuel & energy) will ease in Dec. I'd prefer CBR be maintained @16.5 just to manage inflation expectations downwards.
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ecstacy
#8 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:44:29 AM
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economically, things are elephant
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KulaRaha
#9 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:50:56 AM
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Joined: 7/26/2007
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Interesting situation, given previous CBK moves of "wait and see" have led us to the situation we are in now.

Will they raise rates or hold tight? I'd think it might be smarter to raise again, since it seems this inflation is not coming down soon.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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jerry
#10 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:51:15 AM
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Eric_Nyamu wrote:
aiiiiiiiiiiiii !!!!!!!!!!!!!! but its raining ???

@We've only planted and have not reaped yet!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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GGK
#11 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:06:09 PM
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Am off to Somalia,

Let me know when things improve
"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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the deal
#12 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:12:50 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Despite the liquidity crunch banks are still growing their loan books by 20+% the tightening has to continue

Also remember Kenya Current account deficit stands at 577 bln any loosening will sent it spiraling out of control...and the KES will be back above 100.
Only solution now is to choke economic growth with high CBR or let #Inflation choke it
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hisah
#13 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:39:36 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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the deal wrote:
Thats an alarming figure I now see CBR being hiked by another 100 basis points...the bourse has factored in these bad news smile

If Volcker's script is being followed by CBK, at least I expect CBR hiked by 100bps, but I also see 200bps being implemented. CBK is running out of time to force a mini recession before the June 2012 budget. As at @kularaha states, this is a serious catch 22 situation. I'm fearing for small banks as everyone starts saving furiously with deposit rates hitting the roof. Luxury businesses like hotels, jewellery shops etc will feel cold as basic needs take 1st priority.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#14 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 12:44:22 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I see no use for a rate hike this week. Inflation (fuel & energy) will ease in Dec. I'd prefer CBR be maintained @16.5 just to manage inflation expectations downwards.

I keep telling you mafuta iko na wenyewe. Unless a GFC is let loose again to force brent back to $80 or lower, the cost will sustain these levels!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#15 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 1:56:06 PM
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hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I see no use for a rate hike this week. Inflation (fuel & energy) will ease in Dec. I'd prefer CBR be maintained @16.5 just to manage inflation expectations downwards.

I keep telling you mafuta iko na wenyewe. Unless a GFC is let loose again to force brent back to $80 or lower, the cost will sustain these levels!

On the back of a stronger KES comrade..don't bite me head off Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly atleast Brent has been stable @$105-110 for a while now.
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Cde Monomotapa
#16 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 1:59:06 PM
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$60-80 Brent will print next year. I am smack certain courtesy of a Western recession & consequently Eastern export slowdown.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#17 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 2:08:43 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
KulaRaha wrote:
Interesting situation, given previous CBK moves of "wait and see" have led us to the situation we are in now.

Will they raise rates or hold tight? I'd think it might be smarter to raise again, since it seems this inflation is not coming down soon.

Soo true!The price we have to pay for cheap money!
Been looking at the daily bond trading turnover and the figure has really dropped! No wonder the interbank rates have shot past 30% and the T/Bills are been seriously undersubscribed despite yeilds of 16.6% for the 91 day!
Interesting times these are!
@Hisah, are we headed back to the 90s? back to the bank runs?Havent done stanchart marathon in years!Laughing out loudly
@SufficientlyP
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#18 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 2:46:19 PM

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Things have just become thicker, possibility of the NSE ending the year lower than the 3000 mark.
Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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guru267
#19 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 2:55:39 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
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Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Despite the liquidity crunch banks are still growing their loan books by 20+% the tightening has to continue

Also remember Kenya Current account deficit stands at 577 bln any loosening will sent it spiraling out of control...and the KES will be back above 100.
Only solution now is to choke economic growth with high CBR or let #Inflation choke it


Even though the CBK chokes economic growth inflation must remain high!!!

The sooner Ndungu realises monetary policy will not solve this issue, the better...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Mainat
#20 Posted : Tuesday, November 29, 2011 7:02:30 PM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
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I still maintain that raising CBR again to tackle inflation that is caused by supply side issues (rain->food which is still the largest component)is idiocy. Especially because people won't stop spending on food just because interest rates are going up.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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