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Can the Earnings Season save the NSE?
the deal
#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:20:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The earning season was kicked off by BAT last week, the numbers coming out of BAT where quiet positive, revenues were up 51%, EPS increased by 13.8% in return BAT declared an interim dividend of SH3.50, can such kind of positive news flow save the bourse?

The NSE is down 14% in 2011, the bourse has suffered investor apathy due to double digit inflation which has forced local investors to dig and dig deeper into their pockets to cater for their day to day living expenses leaving little to invest, the NSE is unique in Africa in the sense that it dominated by retail investors, thus factors such as inflation have a greater impact on how the NSE performs.

The weak shilling has also put off foreign investors, the key drivers of the bourse in the past 2 years, the shilling has lost about 10% against the green buck in 2011, thus driving most foreign investors portfolios into Forex losses.

Read more here http://www.contrarianinvestingk...ings-season-save-the-nse
QW25071985
#2 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:24:10 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
The answer to your question .Mr Media man . plain and simple : NO !!!!!!!!!
2012
#3 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:26:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
The weak shilling has also put off foreign investors, http://www.contrarianinvestingk...ings-season-save-the-nse


Aren't the weak shilling and the inflationary effects on NSE great news for the foreign investors? It's like cheap then multiply by 2.

BBI will solve it
:)
FUNKY
#4 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:30:56 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
@ 2012 - the weak shilling provides a good entry point for foreign investors but a haywire in terms of exit...maybe at the time of exit the KES is very weak so that is what discards them.
the deal
#5 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:31:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
2012 wrote:
the deal wrote:
The weak shilling has also put off foreign investors, http://www.contrarianinvestingk...ings-season-save-the-nse


Aren't the weak shilling and the inflationary effects on NSE great news for the foreign investors? It's like cheap then multiply by 2.

The shilling dilutes..i.e changing shillings into dollars, you get less dollars..smile
the deal
#6 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:32:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
FUNKY wrote:
@ 2012 - the weak shilling provides a good entry point for foreign investors but a haywire in terms of exit...maybe at the time of exit the KES is very weak so that is what discards them.

Truesmilesmile smile smile so you rather not enter at all???Sad Sad Sad
ecstacy
#7 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:34:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
Watch the Eurozone, NSE catching a cold...Greece, Ireland, Spain & Italy have to be saved to prevent a second recession. This should (already has) limit +ve net foreign investor flow. This factor let alone our economic growth, political uncertainty, higher energy and food prices etc is playing out whilst the latter issues are limiting Wanjiku to consumption. Unless local institutional investors take up the mantle it's time to patiently watch the drop for pickings...
2012
#8 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:37:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
FUNKY wrote:
@ 2012 - the weak shilling provides a good entry point for foreign investors but a haywire in terms of exit...maybe at the time of exit the KES is very weak so that is what discards them.


True. In my opinion all indicators point towards strengthening of the shilling and weakening of the $. Or am I reading this wrong?

BBI will solve it
:)
SAC Cohen
#9 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:40:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 129
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
@ 2012 - the weak shilling provides a good entry point for foreign investors but a haywire in terms of exit...maybe at the time of exit the KES is very weak so that is what discards them.

Truesmilesmile smile smile so you rather not enter at all???Sad Sad Sad


That doesnt make sense at all. From a foreign investor horizon...cost of hedging the FX exposure outweigh any potential gains on the NSE because of volatility not weakness

and honestly as a foreign investor Kenya is the last place i would put money (right now) with all the global uncertainty... Risk aversion is more of a reason than a weaker shilling...
FUNKY
#10 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 4:49:14 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
@ 2012 - you are right...in most other countries $$ is weakening,it is only in countries like Kenya it has strengthened.
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