Wazua
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Holistic View on Global Economy & Kenya Economy
Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2007 Posts: 288 Location: OZ
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- As a serious and firm believer that big opportunities are in Africa, i must say for sure i am horrified by lies that CBK and simple mindedness Kenyans. At beginning of 2006 US had a national debt of 4 Trillion US Dollars, and now at 2011 it is at 14 Trillion Dollars. With all QE1,2 and another QE 3, the money printing press has been on over drive for last 5 yrs in US. What does this really mean when it comes to the Kenya economy!!!! At 2009 Kes was trading at 67 Kes to US Dollar..and now it is trading at 91. To put in to proper prospective better managed economies like my 2nd Home Australia have kept their National Debt very low, at 2006 KES was trading at 41 to Australia Dollar, and now in 2011 it is trading at 97 Kes to AUD. Just to put it into better perspective for all of you..At 2006 1AUD=0.73 USD, and now 1AUD=1.07. The real reason why Kenya shillings is loosing allot to USD, it is because CBK is printing and printing allot monies more that of US Federal Reserve... Clearly it is easy to fool and take a ride of most Kenyans citizens, with most of them concerned about trivial things like politics (Raila, Kalonzo, Ruto etc), Mwau drug issues..and other useless things. If you want to drop your Jaw today, Get the figure of National Debt of Kenya in Kenya Shillings today, back in 2009 it was 1.4 Trillion shillings... Kenya government will continuously print more monies and borrow allot more being locally or international..are all these debt will paid by Kenyans at one time, and one day we might end up defaulting it...and the debt is in US Dollars, AUD, Euros and etc..With Kenyans shillings loosing it value every day..our loan only becomes bigger everyday... With 2011/2012 being an election year, more and more monies will be printed, and press will continue to keep you busy with useless stuff...while price of food goes above roof...and they will blame the Banks and Forex traders..Famine and other bull shit and because most kenyans dont understand or even care to know about fiat currency based system..they will glad believe it and sympathize with government.. With Soaring inflation, I beg you today to withdraw all your monies and buy AUD and other safe currencies and not US Dollars...and if you are wise buy physical Gold and Silver Bullions and not the ETFs.. I have benefited allot personally with weaker Kenya shillings, because Kenya properties are getting cheaper every day... More monies, more problems...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2007 Posts: 288 Location: OZ
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Most countries is one is based on fiat system, based on dollar as standard and dollar is based on nothing.. How does the government print money? For CBK to print monies, they need to issue treasury bonds, once the treasury bond is bought, the government can proceed to print more monies based on deposit and lending ratios...normally banks are allowed to lend more than 10 times their deposits.. It is insane when you closely think of it...just imagine a bank can buy 1 billion worth of treasury bonds from CBK at say 5.6% and buy treasury bonds with return of 11%. Out of 1 billion, 9 more billion can be created from it.. Thats why shilling, Dollar, Rupees, Kroners, Rands...will only loose their values..Because all the new monies created derives it value from existing pool...and they have a nice name for it called "Inflation".. What happening to Greece, soon Spain, Portugal it is because of ever increasing national debt to a point where the government cant pay it debt at all... Precious metals will always protect your wealth and always beat inflation..thats why most smart countries like Germany, China, Malaysia, India are stacking them high..because they know the Dollar and Petrol Dollar regime is on its death bed.. When you get a chance, take your receipts of food purchases in 2006 and compare them with 2011...then compare your annual income and ask yourself whether your income or investments is beating inflation or not.. More monies, more problems...
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2007 Posts: 288 Location: OZ
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13991135
Nice video to explain the Euro Crisis, and PIGs (Portugal, Ireland, Greece) national debt.. More monies, more problems...
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 19
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@Seles83, please feed us with more info and other ways of been safe. "For I know the plans I have for you,” declares the LORD, “plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future"
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/10/2011 Posts: 4
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Quote:Kenya government will continuously print more monies and borrow allot more being locally or international..are all these debt will paid by Kenyans at one time, and one day we might end up defaulting it...and the debt is in US Dollars, AUD, Euros and etc..With Kenyans shillings loosing it value every day..our loan only becomes bigger everyday...
@Seles83....thats the most informative piece of info that has given us the true picture of what is happening with the Euro & which will definately trickle down into Africa (kenya specifically)...Now since we are already heavily indebted as a nation & as individuals thro this personal bank loans what is the way forward ....??
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/27/2011 Posts: 301 Location: Nairobi
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Seles83 wrote: What's happening to Greece, soon Spain, Portugal is because of ever increasing national debt to a point where the government cant pay it debt at all...
Precious metals will always protect your wealth and always beat inflation..thats why most smart countries like Germany, China, Malaysia, India are stacking them high..because they know the Dollar and Petrol Dollar regime is on its death bed..
And the fellows down in CBK and those behind vision 2030 continue to accrue more debt as they engage in massive massive infrastructure deals. Not that having good infrastructure is bad but if not well financed especially ignoring or lacking to understand the global economic driving forces, we are plunging into a dark pit and real fast.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2007 Posts: 288 Location: OZ
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- Running a government is not different like managing your own cash..The biggest mistake is that most citizens think that government monies is infinite and not their "Monies".. - One of the events i am watching out for is the August 2, whether US debt ceiling with raise from 14.4 trillion or take budget cuts..With 14.4 trillion debt and population of 310 million, that means each an every american has a share of national debt of US 46,451 (4.18M Kes)...we live in very interesting terms...I believe that we might see a change of universal monetary policy within this decade...clearly the age of fiat and petro dollar system is coming to an end... More monies, more problems...
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/22/2011 Posts: 322 Location: Chicago, IL, USA
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Seles83 wrote:- Running a government is not different like managing your own cash..The biggest mistake is that most citizens think that government monies is infinite and not their "Monies"..
- One of the events i am watching out for is the August 2, whether US debt ceiling with raise from 14.4 trillion or take budget cuts..With 14.4 trillion debt and population of 310 million, that means each an every american has a share of national debt of US 46,451 (4.18M Kes)...we live in very interesting terms...I believe that we might see a change of universal monetary policy within this decade...clearly the age of fiat and petro dollar system is coming to an end... Maybe the US will start selling green cards to all that want them, for that exact price- US 46,451 (4.18M Kes). Financing available. President Obama could balance the budget and solve the immigration issue all at once. LOL. The real question about sovereign debt and how it compares to personal debt is the issue of default... will countries and institutions holding this debt try to collect via, what, repossession? Liquidation? What does that mean in terms of a government in this day and age that you owe and cannot pay- where globally there are tremendous political and social factors preventing, well, basically preventing a war or invasion in order to collect what is owed. Best, Hill
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Seles83 wrote:normally banks are allowed to lend more than 10 times their deposits..
^^This doesn't happen in Kenya Mr.! We are not as dumb as u think we are, but it is a fact that the U.S & Europe are real dumb to let that happen. Case in point, Iceland in 2008, Popn:300K, GDP:13B, BANK DEBT:130B! The idiots allowed their banks have debt 10X GDP. The AUD is backed by a depletable mineral resource (gold) ..need I say what will happen once the mineral reserves are over? And lastly, it is amazing that u actually invest in Kenya inspite it all! Oh! You probably expect to sell a Kenyan property in AUD...right, right...nkt!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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too much gloom doom theories on wazua of late....i'm tempted to think anti-christ will be born tomorrow Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Kenya is working hard on import substituition esp.in the energy sector thru Geo-thermal (renewable) and Ethanol for fuel blending. Further, the GoK is investing heavily in irrigation & mega-dams to improve food security thus resulting in less food imports & reliance on rain-fed Agric. in years to come. On the otherhand, when we get our BPO sector up & running, it will earn us a lot more forex than all our current exports combined, in my opinion. Lastly, with the evolution of our SMEs to join our other growing indigenous MNCs (KCB, COOP, BIDCO, EBL e.t.c) we will cease more control of our economy and repatraition by foriegn MNCs will be greatly diluted.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2007 Posts: 288 Location: OZ
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How does having many banks help improve the economy GDP..more banks more monies to lend, more debt to the people and to the government. What Kenya economic balance sheet is income being it exports or taxes.. "This doesn't happen in Kenya Mr.!" Before you arrive to his conclusion, research alittle bit more..about Fiat based currency system and fractional reserve lending... With just a little more knowledge, you can make sound decisions and save your future generation a fortune.. More monies, more problems...
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2007 Posts: 288 Location: OZ
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"The AUD is backed by a depletable mineral resource (gold) .." Australia is experiencing mining boom, with Gold and Iron ore reaching all time High..demand coming espcially from ASIA..China, Malaysia etc.. @Cde Monomotapa The AUD is not backed Gold or Silver standard...the mining boom has given OZ a very good income, hence we have budget surplus and national debt is very low (66Billion). Thats why AUD currency is considered a safe heaven along with swiss francs...countries with healthly balance sheet..Just recently AUD= 1.08USD all time high. Just thought it would nice to share facts..not theories. Always keep in mind the more the government borrows be it local or from foreigh partners, this goes to our balance sheet as laibilities, some day we have to repay it with interest. And i honestly dont think that a couple of dams wont enough generate foreigh exchange to fund infrastructure and other ambitios plan, when the government cannot provide enough food for starving our fellow Kenyans... More monies, more problems...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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To be clear..i am not saying AUD is on gold standard and that should tell us there is not enough to do so. Quite rightly, i was alluding to the fact that OZs BoP is in surplus mainly (hence backed) due to gold and the CURRENT boom. I understand how that good it is, the boom, as I am invested in a more resource rich (42 minerals, gold included) Zimbabwe. But we should accept these are depletable resources & there can be adverse consequences thereafter. I know things are getting worse in the OZ mining and the govt.is now raising royalties on the mines, I know! The mines are getting deaper drill by drill and soon it will not make sense to mine further...then the chickens will come home to roost.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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C'mon man...when I talk about mega-dams it should occur to U that we intend to irrigate and grow food all year round instead of importing food hence using up forex as we are currently doing!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/9/2007 Posts: 288 Location: OZ
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:To be clear..i am not saying AUD is on gold standard and that should tell us there is not enough to do so. Quite rightly, i was alluding to the fact that OZs BoP is in surplus mainly (hence backed) due to gold and the CURRENT boom. I understand how that good it is, the boom, as I am invested in a more resource rich (42 minerals, gold included) Zimbabwe. But we should accept these are depletable resources & there can be adverse consequences thereafter. I know things are getting worse in the OZ mining and the govt.is now raising royalties on the mines, I know! The mines are getting deaper drill by drill and soon it will not make sense to mine further...then the chickens will come home to roost. Well said, economy is always on wealth cycles..One thing the mining boom or the demand from China will ease and then the OZ economy will be a shady state..ride the tide and get off before it swallows you...mostly are caught because of greed.. More monies, more problems...
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/27/2011 Posts: 301 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:C'mon man...when I talk about mega-dams it should occur to U that we intend to irrigate and grow food all year round instead of importing food hence using up forex as we are currently doing!! Could you give an example of these mega dams you are talking about. Are they by any chance among those under contention between the current water minister and others?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Seles83 wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:To be clear..i am not saying AUD is on gold standard and that should tell us there is not enough to do so. Quite rightly, i was alluding to the fact that OZs BoP is in surplus mainly (hence backed) due to gold and the CURRENT boom. I understand how that good it is, the boom, as I am invested in a more resource rich (42 minerals, gold included) Zimbabwe. But we should accept these are depletable resources & there can be adverse consequences thereafter. I know things are getting worse in the OZ mining and the govt.is now raising royalties on the mines, I know! The mines are getting deaper drill by drill and soon it will not make sense to mine further...then the chickens will come home to roost. Well said, economy is always on wealth cycles..One thing the mining boom or the demand from China will ease and then the OZ economy will be a shady state..ride the tide and get off before it swallows you...mostly are caught because of greed.. Now we are talking. Make hay while the sun shines.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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eboomerang wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:C'mon man...when I talk about mega-dams it should occur to U that we intend to irrigate and grow food all year round instead of importing food hence using up forex as we are currently doing!! Could you give an example of these mega dams you are talking about. Are they by any chance among those under contention between the current water minister and others? Yes. Those ones and luckily govt.policy supercedes individuals. They will still be completed. Congratulate yourself if you voted YES for the current constitution that will rid us of this Minister cum politicians non-sense. Kenya is undergoing a serious over-haul, find ur position & make money, OTW just read the bulk trash in the papers and have ur mind and actions stagnated more than a swamp.
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