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IS Carbacid a safe/sure bet?
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dunkang
#1 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 12:19:52 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2011
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Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
IS Carbacid a safe/sure bet?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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FUNKY
#2 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 12:29:40 PM
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Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
Yes it is a very safe heaven at the current price as it cannot go below. It is a good BUY even as the price will sure reach back to the 180-200 levels and even keeping in mind they have a monopoly in the production of CO2 gas.
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dunkang
#3 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 1:57:18 PM
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Ok. Am waiting for guru,mkonomtupu et. al. to advice. They have experience and i have some cash and transport to Nairobi! But i dont think KES180 can be reached before next years elections. do you?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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the deal
#4 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 2:09:10 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
If Carbacid is as great as you guys suggest....why did Centum sell??? look at the 1H results...they were quite dissapointing...i'm less bullish on industrial stocks...
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dunkang
#5 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 3:03:31 PM
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Centum made money, and want to lose it (in real estate). I strongly think their decision was that they needed money for houses, and nothing to do with carbacid's performance! I have hopes in it!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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FUNKY
#6 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 6:01:49 PM
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Well Centum sold their share because they had almost tripled their value in Carbacid,any wise person would have done the same thing.
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Horton
#7 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 6:44:27 PM
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Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
If Carbacid is as great as you guys suggest....why did Centum sell??? look at the 1H results...they were quite dissapointing...i'm less bullish on industrial stocks...


Dude...r u serious???!!! Ur using centum as a yardstick!!!??!?!?

-They did badly with KQ when they bought it at 120
-Uchumi wasnt great either
-RVR was a flop just to name a few....

I also think selling Carb for them was a bubu!! Yes they doubled or close to tripled their cash but they get sucker punched by 30% tax on the other end. They pocketed 1.2B including divs Before tax, their cost was .418B which gives them a profit of 782M....after a 30% tax, it comes to 547.4M, Basically doubling their cash......
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Horton
#8 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 6:54:21 PM
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Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
dunkang wrote:
Centum made money, and want to lose it (in real estate). I strongly think their decision was that they needed money for houses, and nothing to do with carbacid's performance! I have hopes in it!


heavily invested here too...if u look through their past performances, every four-five years, they have a slight dip in profits followed by an acceleration, wouldnt read too much into their HY as it is a fundamentally marvelous company...Buffett would prooly buy into it if he was in Kenya coz:
- regular growth---check
- Moat - -Check
- fairly priced ---check
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VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 6:58:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,356
Location: Nairobi
Answer the question:
No

[There is no guarantee... Always a risk, no matter what. Even a solid past performer like Equity or BBK, etc]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#10 Posted : Saturday, June 04, 2011 7:15:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@horton If a company is a monopoly and posts a drop in profits is a SELL..what would they do in face of a Bharti like onslaught?

Their MOAT is very weak if i had cash i would probably venture into this biz and give this guys a run for their money...anyways here is why i'm less bullish on Carbacid.

1. High electricity costs-look at your bill this month and put Carbacid in your perspective.

2. Super inflation- this will affect their non alcoholic segment
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