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Stocks At Times Are Not Predictable
young
#1 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 12:40:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
In a bull market like last year and Jan/Feb this year, there was a full house, but when unpredictable bear set in recently , not much is heard from the crop of intelligent analyst we have here Most of us (including myself) did not forsee this.

The reason being that in stocks some events beyond our control can make the bear to rear its ugly head. Companies are returning salutory results with sound fundamentals but most of them are dropping beyond their fair value, others are just stabilizing below par.

However you look at it stock prices are cyclical, there is always the party time and the dull moment. I learnt this hard fact in 2008 when I was putting all in my investment in one basket stocks.

I have since adopted a balanced strategy in investing in different asset classes :-
- Stocks, Real Estate, Fixed Income, Savings in foreign currency. This reduces my exposure to market turbulence.

This reminds me of a friend who converted KSH 77 per 1 USD six months ago as a leverage, he decided to change from USD to Ksh at the current rate of 82+ and used that to buy some KPLC and KCB at the current discounted rate , he did not forsee that but when this opportunity becons, he took advantage.

On the whole when the bulls return, the blue chips or I would I call foreigners or fund managers stocks are the ones to recover faster, and they still return salutory dividends.

But be aware that the best time to invest is at times like this when most of us have pessimistic view of the market. But for your own interest let it be blue chips. You know them so I may not name all of them:- EABL,KCB,KPLC, ARM etc.


The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Aguytrying
#2 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 8:36:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
You couldn't be more right. Stocks alone is too risky. Now is when investors should be happy, but unfortunately, investors get happier when the market is going up, and they are buying at higher prices.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 10:46:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Just like the herding into some real estate. Paying 16M+ for a house in the sky?!?
qw25041985
#4 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 12:39:39 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Well i think the writing was on the wall for those who cld see it.

1. there was diminishing volume on the nse but the index still maintained its 4600 mark and above in January. Key work there is diminishing volume.

2. there was the rising inflation that had started to creep in

3. we totally and i mean TOTALLY missed the january rally where investors take positions on stocks thus pushing them up in price

4 . All of the wazua gurus had predicted a bull this yr ( a since signal for contrarian strategy, lol)

with all these signs ( and having personally seen them myself ) we still called for a bull coz the prospects of the year looked so gud...

but i am still optimistic that the bull will return !!!!!!!!
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
PKoli
#5 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 12:52:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
The prices for most stocks are still looking cheap. What is not so clear is if inflation will persist. The response of foreign investors to the market will be key in determing how stocks will behave. Like Young said, one would go for blue chips.I will look at KCB, KPLC, EABL,COOP,MSC, ARM and CIC (over the counter).I will consider MSC due to current cheap price and their expansion programs.
qw25041985
#6 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 3:01:31 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
by the way kenya airways (KQ:KN) is doing a right issue . LIKE IT OR NOT , lol and they have a joint agreement with standard bank,( a friend of mine works there)
so hold buying this share until the rights start trading and the price has a nice price floor...
bytheway this is inside information...
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
obiero
#7 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 3:19:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,229
Location: nairobi
Co-op bank is not a blue chip!

qw25041985
#8 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 3:22:19 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
obiero wrote:
Co-op bank is not a blue chip!


its a colourless-chip Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
hisah
#9 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 4:49:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
PKoli wrote:
The prices for most stocks are still looking cheap. What is not so clear is if inflation will persist. The response of foreign investors to the market will be key in determing how stocks will behave. Like Young said, one would go for blue chips.I will look at KCB, KPLC, EABL,COOP,MSC, ARM and CIC (over the counter).I will consider MSC due to current cheap price and their expansion programs.


Inflation is here to stay even with rains and the GDP expansion story is just a story. With all those rosy prospects and many analysts calling for a bull to take NSE to 5000, well that's another sell signal. Too many bulls... Anyway, the important bull support level - 4000pts has been broken without a surge in volume from Mboys & foreigners. That means the Mboys see scope for further discount. I think NSE will spend most of the year between 3000 - 3700 range. Call me mad, but the signals are saying this. Keep your money for better lower prices for they shall come just like night and day...

Also keep an eye on the global markets. They are tired of going up...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#10 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2011 6:36:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I see the bourse at 5000 by year end...look how foreigners have been quick on Safcom below 4 bob.
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