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Mumias Sugar and SASINI TEA AND COFFEE LTD. Your perfect growth stocks.
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PKoli
#51 Posted : Thursday, July 29, 2010 11:17:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Guys will make money on this sweet stock.I still insist that the future of Mumias is in the Tana region not western.Even if they got Nzoia, the challenges are immense. They have to get a huge tract of land to be under the nucleus.
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guru267
#52 Posted : Thursday, July 29, 2010 11:27:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
PKoli wrote:
Guys will make money on this sweet stock.I still insist that the future of Mumias is in the Tana region not western.Even if they got Nzoia, the challenges are immense. They have to get a huge tract of land to be under the nucleus.

@pkoli these guys are going to diverse their revenues to increase co generation, water bottling and ethanol production... Plus they had HUGE positive cashflows which makes me smell a higher dividend
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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PKoli
#53 Posted : Thursday, July 29, 2010 11:50:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@guru,
So far revenues from cogen are not very exciting due to the low tariffs they got from kplc.Ethanol, I will have to wait and see.water, I am not sure if they will make headway. When the annual accounts are out, please look at the contribution of cogen to their revenue. If it is over 25%, that is a good contribution, else, wait for the Tana. Also look at the load factor of the cogen plant to appreciate how well the plant has been operating.
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qw25041985
#54 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 1:29:54 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
Did i hear somebody complainin of toothache ? Yes !? Dentist here @guru open your mouth and say aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah !!!!
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
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VituVingiSana
#55 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 1:54:06 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
PKoli wrote:
@guru,
So far revenues from cogen are not very exciting due to the low tariffs they got from kplc.
Ati, LOW tarrifs!?!?! I think Mumias get almost 2x what KenGen gets for hydropower [Please recheck my numbers]

If Mumias can get a better rate, then they should encourage factories (plastic, cement, etc) to develop in the area! Mumias is allowed to sell anyone electricity off-grid...

Only thermal producers get more but it is pegged on the price of oil & is generally short-term...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#56 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 12:08:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
PKoli wrote:
@guru,
So far revenues from cogen are not very exciting due to the low tariffs they got from kplc.Ethanol, I will have to wait and see.water, I am not sure if they will make headway. When the annual accounts are out, please look at the contribution of cogen to their revenue. If it is over 25%, that is a good contribution, else, wait for the Tana. Also look at the load factor of the cogen plant to appreciate how well the plant has been operating.

@Pkoli i think you should just wait for the results which will be higher than 3billion PBT.... Mumias gets an 80% profit margin on co generation so if KPLC raises the amount they pay then the better for me
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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PKoli
#57 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 1:00:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@VVS and Guru

It is really not the tariff that you get paid that is the key aspect. The tariff should enable you pay for the debt, O & M and also cater for return on your equity. We should try to understand how much debt Mumias is paying and what are their operational costs?
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PKoli
#58 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 1:14:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
There is some huge supply of MSC shares. I think the price should end lower today
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VituVingiSana
#59 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 1:20:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
PKoli wrote:
@VVS and Guru

It is really not the tariff that you get paid that is the key aspect. The tariff should enable you pay for the debt, O & M and also cater for return on your equity. We should try to understand how much debt Mumias is paying and what are their operational costs?
Agreed but I think Mumias does OK in that respect.
There must be a sufficient margin or Mumias wud not have done it... BTW, it is priced in US$ to mitigate Mumias forex risk...
The huge plus is Mumias used to PAY to get rid of baggasse but now it is worth something!

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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PKoli
#60 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 1:31:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@VVS

The loan is in yen and they get paid the tariff in US$. Does this mitigate against the forex fluctuations?

On the bagasse side for disposal, I agree with you, that is a big plus. May be when the financials are out have a forensic look at their books and those fine print notes. In particular evaluate the cogen part of revenue and all the associated costs.
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