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4-12% per transaction?
Extrapreneur
#1 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 6:14:12 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
Hi everyone,

I'm new here but I decided to join the fray because I got some very useful information here that saved me money and a ton of embarrassment. Ok, to my 4-12% story. So, I'm always looking for ways to beat/play the system because that's the only way to make money.

I've done a bit of forex trading online and was wondering if you can get straight rates/conversions? That is, say, buy GBP, then buy JPY with those GBP's then buy back USD with those JPY's.

I ask this because I was playing around with a theory and came up with this. PS: I have verified the numbers but await your input before implementation. The currency trio I am looking at working with is KES, UGX and USD. This is how it would work.

Open KES and USD accounts in Kenya and a UGX account in Uganda. First, negotiate a rate here to buy USD with KES and deposit that in your USD account. Then call your bank in Uganda and negotiate for a straight conversion from USD to UGX and deposit that in your UGX account.

Then call your bank here and tell them you wish to transfer UGX to your KES account and negotiate a rate. The numbers tell me you can make 4-12% per "round trade" regardless of prevailing currency rates, and this due to the fact that the relationship the USD has with KES is different from that which it has with UGX. Kindly do the numbers and confirm to me whether this is indeed so. Thanks.
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Hi-Lo
#2 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 6:59:52 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/5/2007
Posts: 91
...looks like straight and profitable currency dealing...but wait...your thesis blows up when you want to convert the KES/UGX exotics interbank...NO WAY!! You'd have to revert to USD [or other hard currencies] again and the gain lost...any bankers here to help?...coz one could'v made, not 4%, but 1000% per round on the Zim$ b4 its death...
Extrapreneur
#3 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 7:25:01 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
@Hi-Lo; well, that's the benefit of using the local currency loophole; UGX will be the local currency in your UGX account and KES will be the local currency for your KES account. Tradition states that when money is repatriated it is automatically converted to the local currency unless requested otherwise. In addition, doing this in one country would not work as the currency economics would all be tied in and the net difference after a round trade would be close to zero. PS: this theory exploits the macro-economic elements of each country relative to each other, something that simple indicative exchange rates given by international sources do not reflect.
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guru267
#4 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 7:25:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@extrapreneur believe me when i say that i've already thought about doing what you said but its simple the exchange rate system is well planned out so you can't make money unless there is actual depreciation /appreciation of the currency....
I'm very sure you have just one problem... You are looking at the average exchange rates rather than the buying/selling rates...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Extrapreneur
#5 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 7:41:52 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
@guru267; Well, when I use the average exchange rates, I get a net zero difference. I went out and tested this currency trio trade locally and made 2% in one round trade. The idea being, when you exchange one currency for a stronger currency, then buy a currency weaker than the first with that, then buy back the first currency, you have actually exploited the divisive aspect of currency trade, and the multiplicative aspect of the same, all at once. Somehow, I was incredulous when it worked on paper, and can't seem to totally explain how exactly it works but when I had the money in hand..well, let's just say, the numbers don't lie...
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Agra
#6 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 8:48:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/22/2007
Posts: 96
Location: Agra, India
Its also possible with Bostwana pula huge difference btwn kenya shilling and dollar.A friend of mine used to play with the dollar buying dollar in kenya and changing it in south Sudan.and it works.
It's easy for investors to get emotional and prejudiced when trading, but computers don't
Gordon Gekko
#7 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 9:18:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Trx costs irrelevant/negligible?
gladiator
#8 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2010 12:43:25 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
I did a quick check of your theory by going to today's buy/sell rates using Equity Bank Kenya (http://www.equitybank.co.ke/rates.php) and Equity Bank Uganda (http://www.equitybank.co.ug/en/rates.php). If you start with 100,000/-, you will end up with 95,316/-. I then tried using combination of other bank like DFCU, DTB, KCB, Crane etc and always ended up with less money.

One thing I can advise you is that such arbitrage opportunities only exist for a couple of seconds and are only available to bank treasury offices who can settle currency trades in a few seconds with their computer systems not accessible to you. Just focus on the fundamentals of the economy and other currency moving news rather than chase such arbitrage opportunities.
mukiha
#9 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2010 8:57:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Somebody once claimed that he can count to one billion. I told him now way. he insisted he can. So I told him to start counting and call me when he finishes!

Same argument here: put your money where your mouth is. If you think you can make a profit, go right ahead and do it. Give us an update of your transactions in December.

End of discussion!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Extrapreneur
#10 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2010 10:34:52 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
PS: I did make money and continue to do so. I regret posting it here though; the pessimism is legendary. All the best to you all who are willing to test the limits and boundaries of what is already known.
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Extrapreneur
#11 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2010 10:38:11 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Trx costs irrelevant/negligible?

The transaction costs in the local setting are negligible but I'm yet to try the two country scenario.
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mukiha
#12 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2010 11:19:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Extrapreneur wrote:
PS: I did make money and continue to do so. I regret posting it here though; the pessimism is legendary. All the best to you all who are willing to test the limits and boundaries of what is already known.

Why then did you post it as a question?

Without revealing the amounts involved, could you give us the details of the transactions - dates, exchange rates, commissions etc?

@Wazua; what happened to the initial post on this thread?

It now starts mid-way and so it doesn't make much sense any more!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
wazua
#13 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2010 4:25:07 PM
Rank: Administration


Joined: 11/19/2009
Posts: 679
Dear @Extrapreneur

Much as we agree with your assertion some of the feedback in response to your thread was counter productive, we've restored posts as users had taken time to read, analyse, and respond.

Kindly allow us to welcome you to Wazua, as we urge you not to be disheartened by 1 or 2 mindless responses. Judging by your initial posts, our community will benefit from your presence.

Thank you for joining the community.


StatMeister
#14 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2010 5:20:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
@stocks are a sum game (sum > 0), actually the sum is the total market return (including dividends)

FX sounds much like a zero sum (every coin made by one person has been lost by another).

Right now you are convinced you will continue making money while someone else (e.g. the banks) will continue losing the money . . .

In finance, it's called FX trading, but in English its called gambling
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
Stealth
#15 Posted : Wednesday, July 28, 2010 8:39:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 145
Location: East Africa
@ Extra ignore the negative posts. Enlighten the rest of us. I tend to think that the bank charges for the transfers wud erode any gains made in the conversions. Don't the banks charge?
Extrapreneur
#16 Posted : Thursday, July 29, 2010 12:34:53 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
Stealth wrote:
@ Extra ignore the negative posts. Enlighten the rest of us. I tend to think that the bank charges for the transfers wud erode any gains made in the conversions. Don't the banks charge?

Thanks Stealth. Well, there are bank charges, that is true, but a wire transfer is about KES450 or something close to that. In addition, we are talking about an average of 4% profit. If you worked with say a quarter of a million, that would be 10,000 per round trade. If you made about two trades in a week, that would be 80,000 per month. One other thing, the premise behind this theory is simply that a dollar is cheaper in Kenya than it is in Uganda, or any other country with a weaker economy than Kenya's, for that matter. That is why using indicative rates from Uganda against those in Kenya does not work. It is similar to taking all rates from say, XE.com, where this theory accrues a net difference of close to zero if not a negative value.
Join the discussion on the first freelance community network in Kenya. If you'd like your blog included on the site, kindly email it to me at info@penwiseassociates.com or simply join the discussion in the forum section

Stealth
#17 Posted : Thursday, July 29, 2010 2:59:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 145
Location: East Africa
Extrapreneur wrote:
Thanks Stealth. Well, there are bank charges, that is true, but a wire transfer is about KES450 or something close to that. In addition, we are talking about an average of 4% profit. If you worked with say a quarter of a million, that would be 10,000 per round trade. If you made about two trades in a week, that would be 80,000 per month. One other thing, the premise behind this theory is simply that a dollar is cheaper in Kenya than it is in Uganda, or any other country with a weaker economy than Kenya's, for that matter. That is why using indicative rates from Uganda against those in Kenya does not work. It is similar to taking all rates from say, XE.com, where this theory accrues a net difference of close to zero if not a negative value.


Does this mean that one cud get better rates from independent bureax, then deposit the money in an appropriate bank account and effect the necessary transfers?

Stealth
#18 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 12:36:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 145
Location: East Africa
Does it mean that one cud get
better rates from independent
bureax, then deposit the money in
an appropriate bank account and
effect the necessary transfers?
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Friday, July 30, 2010 2:03:06 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
@extrapreneur - I am skeptical this would work on a long-term basis... This might have been a one-off due to various movements in currency.

1) The spreads that every bank makes on $-KES ; UGX-KES ; $-UGX [Vary but can be 1%-10%]
2) Transaction costs [450/- is very good. Which bank? I paid KES 2,500 to wire funds to Uganda]

The banks with branches in Uganda might be the best to use DTBK, UBA, Equity, KCB... I am not sure about the rest...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
jerry
#20 Posted : Wednesday, August 04, 2010 8:00:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
We seem to have ignored the negotiation bit. May be if you are dealing with large volumes of cash it becomes easier for the 'theory' to be practical.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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