youcan'tstopusnow wrote:The Gulf Spill is only going to have a short-term effect on a juggernaut like BP. Long term future still bright
I totally agree with you and that was a smart move by BP! Declare a large loss right and write claim tax credits from UK and USA govts ($7b this quarter). That means as long as BP makes losses, both Govts get no tax. If you saw the news, there are no complains from the same policians who want BP to spend all that and dont want it to claim the Tax Credits.
By the way BP is never ever going to spend $30b dollars...When the Exon Valdex grounded in Alaska in 1989, the case went to Court and was only settled finally last by the US supreme court that ruled that Exonn did not have to all the money the Govt wanted. That is 20+ yrs after the spill. Exonn never merged and never collapsed.As a matter of fact it grew to be the largest publicly traded company in the world.
Come back to BP, when all the political noise and dust has settled down the case will go to course and the following points to come to light:
1. As per current USA law, there a Cap in BPs liability (a few billion dollars but am not sure of the exact number, $2b I think)
2. The moner doesnt have to be paid right away: It took exonn 20yrs, so even if BP want to spend 32b, that is over 15-20yrs...It can afford that.
3. BP only owned a 65% stake on that well..There an american company with 25% stake that nobody talks about and a Japanese company with a 10% stake. Those companies are Jointly responsible for the clean up cost.
4. Transocean owned the rig, and will be responsible for the people who died during the explosion. And if found to have been criminally negligent in safely operating the rig (read switching off critical monitors) they will be responsible for something.
5. Harlibuton did the cementing work on the well before explosion and if they did a shortie job, they will be fined and held liable for some costs..
6. The company that made the faultie Blow Out Preventer BOP) is currently wishing the political dust continues, because if it settles, the question will be: Why did the BOP not work?
As you can see, there plenty of parties to share the cost with BP....
I still mantain if I had money..BP is a perfect opportunity for me to make a killing...Look from June 28th to now the stock of the company has increased by $10, a 35% return if I had bought then...
As an investor I behave like a tick, patiently waiting on grass and larch onto the first cow that shows up. As an investor I dont behave like a tick...I jump off the the cow as soon as am fully engorged before it dies...