Wazua
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Playing the market ..2026
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,433 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Kusadikika wrote:How much of the current market rally is being driven by Mansa X? Their Kenya Shilling Fund had 160+ billion shillings at the end of H1 2026. The NSE is small and even a fraction of that money will cause a rally. Could they be creating their own outsized returns by raising valuations caused by their own buying?🤔 160 Billion is approx. 3.9% of the NSE market cap. And they had they already had NSE holdings. Let's assume that was 2% already (being extreme on the lower side). That would put new purchases at 1.9% on the higher side. How would this cause a sustained market rally??? And how would one hope to cause a rally by buying and no slump while offloading the same volume. It would be a zero sum game!! Same demand  CGEN shareholders are looking to exit as the price dips. Why was it rising with crazy multiples. Teach me master Some shareholders exiting part or whole of their positions after 10x gains in 2 years. Their shares. Their profits. Has Paul Wander Ndungu exited? I do not think so. Why? He has Diamond Hands. https://x.com/kahome_ste...089374222833398076?s=20
Meanwhile, others are looking at 460 in 8.5 months after FY26 results are announced. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,727
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MaichBlack wrote:Kusadikika wrote:How much of the current market rally is being driven by Mansa X? Their Kenya Shilling Fund had 160+ billion shillings at the end of H1 2026. The NSE is small and even a fraction of that money will cause a rally. Could they be creating their own outsized returns by raising valuations caused by their own buying?🤔 160 Billion is approx. 3.9% of the NSE market cap. And they already had NSE holdings. Let's assume that was 2% already (being extreme on the lower side). That would put new purchases at 1.9% on the higher side. How would this cause a sustained market rally??? And how would one hope to cause a rally by buying and no slump while offloading the same volume. It would be a zero sum game!! Same demand created when buying will be the same supply when selling. I don't think they would intentionally want to cause a rally. It would just be a side effect of their size. However when prices rise it also reflects as growth in their Assets Under Management and can there charge higher fees so they don't mind it either. They raised 50 billion in the last year and that money must go somewhere. The NSE is usually moved by a few millions, try buying a few million shillings worth of stock at market price and soon you realise you are the market, price instantly jumps 10 percent. Sembuse 50 billion. For as long as their cash raising efforts persist at the level it has been they will have a problem of deployment of the same at the NSE and must by necessity raise prices. There is a big chunk of the NSE float that is not traded, akina Vodacom Safaricom shares, GOK stakes and even akina NSSF and other large shareholders don't trade so the free float is not much and a big inflow will affect prices. It's not as if I am complaining about rising NSE prices. Or maybe we wait and see if they ever have a year where withdrawals outpace cash raises and we see if prices at the NSE change.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,461 Location: nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Kusadikika wrote:How much of the current market rally is being driven by Mansa X? Their Kenya Shilling Fund had 160+ billion shillings at the end of H1 2026. The NSE is small and even a fraction of that money will cause a rally. Could they be creating their own outsized returns by raising valuations caused by their own buying?🤔 160 Billion is approx. 3.9% of the NSE market cap. And they already had NSE holdings. Let's assume that was 2% already (being extreme on the lower side). That would put new purchases at 1.9% on the higher side. How would this cause a sustained market rally??? And how would one hope to cause a rally by buying and no slump while offloading the same volume. It would be a zero sum game!! Same demand created when buying will be the same supply when selling. I don't think they would intentionally want to cause a rally. It would just be a side effect of their size. However when prices rise it also reflects as growth in their Assets Under Management and can there charge higher fees so they don't mind it either. They raised 50 billion in the last year and that money must go somewhere. The NSE is usually moved by a few millions, try buying a few million shillings worth of stock at market price and soon you realise you are the market, price instantly jumps 10 percent. Sembuse 50 billion. For as long as their cash raising efforts persist at the level it has been they will have a problem of deployment of the same at the NSE and must by necessity raise prices. There is a big chunk of the NSE float that is not traded, akina Vodacom Safaricom shares, GOK stakes and even akina NSSF and other large shareholders don't trade so the free float is not much and a big inflow will affect prices. It's not as if I am complaining about rising NSE prices. Or maybe we wait and see if they ever have a year where withdrawals outpace cash raises and we see if prices at the NSE change. The NSE is asymmetric in nature. Most of the fund managers have better information than others. Remember some people sit on multiple boards and easily know where exactly the firms stand. Several CEOs and FMs have been convicted of insider dealings here in Kenya. We should not play dumb COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,727
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obiero wrote:Kusadikika wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Kusadikika wrote:How much of the current market rally is being driven by Mansa X? Their Kenya Shilling Fund had 160+ billion shillings at the end of H1 2026. The NSE is small and even a fraction of that money will cause a rally. Could they be creating their own outsized returns by raising valuations caused by their own buying?🤔 160 Billion is approx. 3.9% of the NSE market cap. And they already had NSE holdings. Let's assume that was 2% already (being extreme on the lower side). That would put new purchases at 1.9% on the higher side. How would this cause a sustained market rally??? And how would one hope to cause a rally by buying and no slump while offloading the same volume. It would be a zero sum game!! Same demand created when buying will be the same supply when selling. I don't think they would intentionally want to cause a rally. It would just be a side effect of their size. However when prices rise it also reflects as growth in their Assets Under Management and can there charge higher fees so they don't mind it either. They raised 50 billion in the last year and that money must go somewhere. The NSE is usually moved by a few millions, try buying a few million shillings worth of stock at market price and soon you realise you are the market, price instantly jumps 10 percent. Sembuse 50 billion. For as long as their cash raising efforts persist at the level it has been they will have a problem of deployment of the same at the NSE and must by necessity raise prices. There is a big chunk of the NSE float that is not traded, akina Vodacom Safaricom shares, GOK stakes and even akina NSSF and other large shareholders don't trade so the free float is not much and a big inflow will affect prices. It's not as if I am complaining about rising NSE prices. Or maybe we wait and see if they ever have a year where withdrawals outpace cash raises and we see if prices at the NSE change. The NSE is asymmetric in nature. Most of the fund managers have better information than others. Remember some people sit on multiple boards and easily know where exactly the firms stand. Several CEOs and FMs have been convicted of insider dealings here in Kenya. We should not play dumb When you have billions to deploy in a small market insider information is not that useful. You have a different kind of problem, whatever you buy rises and so your portfolio looks better and better quarter after quarter. I think it would be nice to see a report of their NSE holdings every quarter. Na isifichwe under Nominee accounts. Let everyone see what their holdings are and changes every quarter.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,461 Location: nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:obiero wrote:Kusadikika wrote:MaichBlack wrote:Kusadikika wrote:How much of the current market rally is being driven by Mansa X? Their Kenya Shilling Fund had 160+ billion shillings at the end of H1 2026. The NSE is small and even a fraction of that money will cause a rally. Could they be creating their own outsized returns by raising valuations caused by their own buying?🤔 160 Billion is approx. 3.9% of the NSE market cap. And they already had NSE holdings. Let's assume that was 2% already (being extreme on the lower side). That would put new purchases at 1.9% on the higher side. How would this cause a sustained market rally??? And how would one hope to cause a rally by buying and no slump while offloading the same volume. It would be a zero sum game!! Same demand created when buying will be the same supply when selling. I don't think they would intentionally want to cause a rally. It would just be a side effect of their size. However when prices rise it also reflects as growth in their Assets Under Management and can there charge higher fees so they don't mind it either. They raised 50 billion in the last year and that money must go somewhere. The NSE is usually moved by a few millions, try buying a few million shillings worth of stock at market price and soon you realise you are the market, price instantly jumps 10 percent. Sembuse 50 billion. For as long as their cash raising efforts persist at the level it has been they will have a problem of deployment of the same at the NSE and must by necessity raise prices. There is a big chunk of the NSE float that is not traded, akina Vodacom Safaricom shares, GOK stakes and even akina NSSF and other large shareholders don't trade so the free float is not much and a big inflow will affect prices. It's not as if I am complaining about rising NSE prices. Or maybe we wait and see if they ever have a year where withdrawals outpace cash raises and we see if prices at the NSE change. The NSE is asymmetric in nature. Most of the fund managers have better information than others. Remember some people sit on multiple boards and easily know where exactly the firms stand. Several CEOs and FMs have been convicted of insider dealings here in Kenya. We should not play dumb When you have billions to deploy in a small market insider information is not that useful. You have a different kind of problem, whatever you buy rises and so your portfolio looks better and better quarter after quarter. I think it would be nice to see a report of their NSE holdings every quarter. Na isifichwe under Nominee accounts. Let everyone see what their holdings are and changes every quarter. True. Large-scale investors can control the stock prices somewhat for most illiquid stocks, in any country COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,461 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Hehe. You really make my days lively. Where would I be, without you DTB hits the sweet spot. Consider partial offload at KES 200 COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,433 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:obiero wrote:Hehe. You really make my days lively. Where would I be, without you DTB hits the sweet spot. Consider partial offload at KES 200 @Maich - Time to buy DTB as soon as it touches 200!!!! Let's recap in April 2028 after FY2027 results are out. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,461 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:Hehe. You really make my days lively. Where would I be, without you DTB hits the sweet spot. Consider partial offload at KES 200 @Maich - Time to buy DTB as soon as it touches 200!!!! Let's recap in April 2028 after FY2027 results are out. Fair value is KES 310 mzee msumbufu. I am alerting people who bought earlier, who can afford to take some profits. No one knows what the future holds. A trader needs to be prudent COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 8,010
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:obiero wrote:Hehe. You really make my days lively. Where would I be, without you DTB hits the sweet spot. Consider partial offload at KES 200 @Maich - Time to buy DTB as soon as it touches 200!!!! Let's recap in April 2028 after FY2027 results are out. Thanks @VVS. I have been building a war chest for Dangote Refineries. I want to talk to SBG next week and understand what is in store for us. The information out there is not consistent and Dangote himselfu keeps confusing me in interviews. Mara they want to give priority to retail investors, mara sijui Nigerians bla bla bla etc. I want to understand the likely structure so that I know if I should keep building the war chest or deploy my resources elsewhere. The idea is to throw all cash I will be having at Dangote Refineries then get back to NSE with the refund and new cash. I am NOT selling any of my current holdings though to fund the participation in the IPO. Just new resources. And all dividends!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 873 Location: nairobi
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I assumed refineries are very long-term investments with long payback period and low returns.
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