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KPC IPO - Bearish Noise
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,651
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obiero wrote:wukan wrote:stocksmaster wrote:mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation The KPC share should rise tomorrow upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. There's no logical reason for it to collapse. It should rise, but ideally via NBV, it is worth KES 6.40 I see it more rangebound 6-8 for the accumulation stage then eventually settle at 12 over the medium term.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,811
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Today is that day!! Leo ndio ile siku!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 398
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MaichBlack wrote:xtina wrote:HaMaina wrote:MaichBlack wrote:People need to relax. Monday is not far. Those swimming naked will be known that day!! Swimming Naked is the most relaxing and fulfilling swim ever. Its just that everyone else thinks your mad. On KPC Im waiting for my stocks to hit 25 and above by the end of this month. Uganda being a major shareholder and about to begin export of Oil is a definit + for KPC. KPC Shall rise.   25 bob aje na weak hands is only 2.56% Uli apply ngapi @xtina? (if you don't mind saying that is) Individually it was mid 6 figures, as chama collectively was 8 figures. For both, the objective was long term, boring, monopoly stock.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 398
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wukan wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:stocksmaster wrote:mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation The KPC share should rise tomorrow upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. There's no logical reason for it to collapse. It should rise, but ideally via NBV, it is worth KES 6.40 I see it more rangebound 6-8 for the accumulation stage then eventually settle at 12 over the medium term. Glad to have locked in a strong head start core position, what is remaining to accumulate the dips. Not too worried about volatility with 97% under Uganda/Rwanda, govt and institutions
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,651
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MaichBlack wrote:Today is that day!!
Leo ndio ile siku!! Today was the day and all went well. Good lesson on how to become conviction investors. Do your homework and Stand firm!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,651
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xtina wrote:wukan wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:stocksmaster wrote:mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation The KPC share should rise tomorrow upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. There's no logical reason for it to collapse. It should rise, but ideally via NBV, it is worth KES 6.40 I see it more rangebound 6-8 for the accumulation stage then eventually settle at 12 over the medium term. Glad to have locked in a strong head start core position, what is remaining to accumulate the dips. Not too worried about volatility with 97% under Uganda/Rwanda, govt and institutions Happy for you. I put only the idle cash. I see a good future when East Africa/Great lakes region starts being a proper oil consumer in the coming decades.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,337 Location: Nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:My 2 cents wrote:The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.
The underallocations were taken up by GoK
Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes. Exactly. It was a complete flop. Kenya Institutional Investors is NSSF which is GOK controlled. So what happened here is GOK sold KPC to itself. Or rather misallocated Kenyans pension money to overpay for an asset that everyone else refused to buy. OMCs keeping away should tell you something, they would have been the most interested. They understand the business better than anyone else and would have had access to the most funds. Brokers got paid KES 1bn+ to "shepherd" the sale by GoK to NSSF (GoK CON-trolled). GoK should have just transferred the shares to NSSF in lieu of outstanding/delayed remittances! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,337 Location: Nairobi
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mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down 10 March 2026 2.08mn shares traded between 9.00 - 9.50 and closed at 9.10 with VWAP at 9.18 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,337 Location: Nairobi
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My 2 cents wrote:Let me explain very simply in a way that is accessible to Obiero. If you go to the market to sell 100 mangoes and in the evening 50 mangoes are unsold. You then sell them to yourself and declare success. Is this rational? Do you go home and brag to your wife about your 100% sales? I am waiting for @Obiero's reply. I am glad I did not buy. I am happy to buy something else or wait for the price of KPC to drop. I see 3 scenarios for the long-term for me [I am not a trader]. 1) Price drops and the DY becomes attractive. It becomes a dividend play. Some folks, like me, like dividends. 2) Price remains steady. It remains unattractive to me as a dividend play unless long-term yields on bonds drops to 8-ish level. 3) Price increases substantially. That would genuinely surprise me! Let's look at this in March 2028. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,337 Location: Nairobi
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wukan wrote:stocksmaster wrote:mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation I am curious to see which non-GoK institutional investors bought. I wonder how many GoK-controlled or influenced entities bought. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,337 Location: Nairobi
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HaMaina wrote:MaichBlack wrote:People need to relax. Monday is not far. Those swimming naked will be known that day!! Swimming Naked is the most relaxing and fulfilling swim ever. Its just that everyone else thinks your mad. On KPC Im waiting for my stocks to hit 25 and above by the end of this month. Uganda being a major shareholder and about to begin export of Oil is a definit + for KPC. KPC Shall rise. Can someone who is savvy at the digital stuff please bring this post up and let us know KPC's VWAP on 31st March 2026? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,337 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:xtina wrote:HaMaina wrote:MaichBlack wrote:People need to relax. Monday is not far. Those swimming naked will be known that day!! Swimming Naked is the most relaxing and fulfilling swim ever. Its just that everyone else thinks your mad. On KPC Im waiting for my stocks to hit 25 and above by the end of this month. Uganda being a major shareholder and about to begin export of Oil is a definit + for KPC. KPC Shall rise. 25 bob aje na weak hands is only 2.56% It must rise upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. It must rise, but ideally it is worth KES 6.40 There is one question you have not asked yourself: Who is this who will get suddenly "clever" and decide to buy at above 9/= while there was a massive under subscription (only 10% of the shares on offer) in the retail investors category!!?? That would be the most confused character! You sit out the IPO at 9/= then buy immediately on listing at above 9/= plus commissions!? A grossly under subscribed share (for retail investors anong others). I am not saying confused characters don't exist but I doubt they will be enough in this case to push the demand and price up. Getting into the secondary market immediately after listing only makes sense if the IPO was significantly discounted and/or significantly oversubscribed and you are forced to buy the shares you didn't get in the IPO after listing. The market will always be irrational. Remember the IPO was oversubscribed and GoK will refund KES 5,400,000,000. It is wrong to imagine that the institution refunded would not go back to the NSE to obtain KPC shares. Anywho, sema Tuesday, Tuesday (in Raila's voice) Institutional Investors don't pony up cash but use Bank Guarantees so technically they do not get refunds BUT the cash/collateral behind BGs may be released to be reinvested/reallocated. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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