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KPC IPO - Bearish Noise
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,651
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obiero wrote:wukan wrote:stocksmaster wrote:mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation The KPC share should rise tomorrow upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. There's no logical reason for it to collapse. It should rise, but ideally via NBV, it is worth KES 6.40 I see it more rangebound 6-8 for the accumulation stage then eventually settle at 12 over the medium term.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,811
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Today is that day!! Leo ndio ile siku!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 398
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MaichBlack wrote:xtina wrote:HaMaina wrote:MaichBlack wrote:People need to relax. Monday is not far. Those swimming naked will be known that day!! Swimming Naked is the most relaxing and fulfilling swim ever. Its just that everyone else thinks your mad. On KPC Im waiting for my stocks to hit 25 and above by the end of this month. Uganda being a major shareholder and about to begin export of Oil is a definit + for KPC. KPC Shall rise.   25 bob aje na weak hands is only 2.56% Uli apply ngapi @xtina? (if you don't mind saying that is) Individually it was mid 6 figures, as chama collectively was 8 figures. For both, the objective was long term, boring, monopoly stock.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 398
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wukan wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:stocksmaster wrote:mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation The KPC share should rise tomorrow upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. There's no logical reason for it to collapse. It should rise, but ideally via NBV, it is worth KES 6.40 I see it more rangebound 6-8 for the accumulation stage then eventually settle at 12 over the medium term. Glad to have locked in a strong head start core position, what is remaining to accumulate the dips. Not too worried about volatility with 97% under Uganda/Rwanda, govt and institutions
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,651
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MaichBlack wrote:Today is that day!!
Leo ndio ile siku!! Today was the day and all went well. Good lesson on how to become conviction investors. Do your homework and Stand firm!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,651
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xtina wrote:wukan wrote:obiero wrote:wukan wrote:stocksmaster wrote:mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation The KPC share should rise tomorrow upon listing on day 1. It will be a highly illiquid share given that it is largely owned by institutions, and the retail investors that bought at 9.00 will obviously not sell below IPO price hurriedly. There's no logical reason for it to collapse. It should rise, but ideally via NBV, it is worth KES 6.40 I see it more rangebound 6-8 for the accumulation stage then eventually settle at 12 over the medium term. Glad to have locked in a strong head start core position, what is remaining to accumulate the dips. Not too worried about volatility with 97% under Uganda/Rwanda, govt and institutions Happy for you. I put only the idle cash. I see a good future when East Africa/Great lakes region starts being a proper oil consumer in the coming decades.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,333 Location: Nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:My 2 cents wrote:The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.
The underallocations were taken up by GoK
Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes. Exactly. It was a complete flop. Kenya Institutional Investors is NSSF which is GOK controlled. So what happened here is GOK sold KPC to itself. Or rather misallocated Kenyans pension money to overpay for an asset that everyone else refused to buy. OMCs keeping away should tell you something, they would have been the most interested. They understand the business better than anyone else and would have had access to the most funds. Brokers got paid KES 1bn+ to "shepherd" the sale by GoK to NSSF (GoK CON-trolled). GoK should have just transferred the shares to NSSF in lieu of outstanding/delayed remittances! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,333 Location: Nairobi
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mufasa wrote:@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.
I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.
This thing will go up before it comes down 10 March 2026 2.08mn shares traded between 9.00 - 9.50 and closed at 9.10 with VWAP at 9.18 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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