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My 2 cents		#41 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 5:51:18 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,088		obiero wrote: My 2 cents wrote: To all the people celebrating results, please be a little more sophisticated in your analysis. The IPO was largely snubbed by retail and international investors both of whom were initially allocated 20% each. Institutional investors who were initially allocated 20% now hold 41%. Were they strongly nudged to take up more? Just as Uganda was also cajoled to take up more. I would hesitate to label this a successful IPO. Hehe. A win is a win The community of wazua I hope promotes investment analysis rigour rather that talking in codes.
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obiero		#42 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 7:33:22 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,181 Location: nairobi		My 2 cents wrote: obiero wrote: My 2 cents wrote: To all the people celebrating results, please be a little more sophisticated in your analysis. The IPO was largely snubbed by retail and international investors both of whom were initially allocated 20% each. Institutional investors who were initially allocated 20% now hold 41%. Were they strongly nudged to take up more? Just as Uganda was also cajoled to take up more. I would hesitate to label this a successful IPO. Hehe. A win is a win The community of wazua I hope promotes investment analysis rigour rather that talking in codes. Was the IPO oversubscribed or not. What analysis do you require around that particular fact. The only thing here is that KPC shall be an illiquid stock, so the price will not plunge upon listing despite it being overpriced as already mentioned by multiple sophisticated analysts KQ ABP 4.26
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My 2 cents		#43 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 8:14:50 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/2/2010 Posts: 1,088		Let me explain very simply in a way that is accessible to Obiero. If you go to the market to sell 100 mangoes and in the evening 50 mangoes are unsold. You then sell them to yourself and declare success. Is this rational? Do you go home and brag to your wife about your 100% sales?
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stocksmaster		#44 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 8:24:26 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 462 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE		mufasa wrote: @xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations. I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high. This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting x handle: @stocksmaster79
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obiero		#45 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 8:26:07 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,181 Location: nairobi		My 2 cents wrote: Let me explain very simply in a way that is accessible to Obiero. If you go to the market to sell 100 mangoes and in the evening 50 mangoes are unsold. You then sell them to yourself and declare success. Is this rational? Do you go home and brag to your wife about your 100% sales? Hehe. What an example KQ ABP 4.26
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MaichBlack		#46 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 11:47:18 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		My 2 cents wrote: The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO. The underallocations were taken up by GoK Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes. When staff snub the IPO... When OMCs snub the IPO... And the magnitude of the snubbing tells it all. OMCs 0.014% vs allocated 15%! Staff 0.06% vs allocated 5%!! Who understands the business and its nitty-gritties better??? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack		#47 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 11:59:18 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		All employees combined bought 63.6m worth of shares. The MD and another like 4 guys in top management would have taken that much if they had faith in the business vis-a-vis the valuation! That is even before you include the board of directors!! And mind you they must have bought some "save face" shares by "force" lest they annoy the system!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack		#48 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:00:54 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		All employees combined bought 63.6m worth of shares. The MD and another like 4 guys in top management would have taken that much if they had faith in the business vis-a-vis the valuation! That is even before you include the board of directors!! And mind you they must have bought some "save face" shares by "force" lest they annoy the system!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack		#49 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:03:07 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		Kusadikika wrote: My 2 cents wrote: The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO. The underallocations were taken up by GoK Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes. Exactly. It was a complete flop. Kenya Institutional Investors is NSSF which is GOK controlled. So what happened here is GOK sold KPC to itself. Or rather misallocated Kenyans pension money to overpay for an asset that everyone else refused to buy. OMCs keeping away should tell you something, they would have been the most interested. They understand the business better than anyone else and would have had access to the most funds. Exactly!!! Hapa I am sure our money in NSSF imeonyeshwa moto!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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wukan		#50 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 6:12:01 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,644		All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics "It's 1982 The market's through the roof We're living plenty high on the swine I'm finally sitting pretty In Oklahoma City Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight Scared money don't make nothing Nothing in life will come free Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..." Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market open
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dunkang		#51 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 9:53:25 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,820 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831		wukan wrote: All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics "It's 1982 The market's through the roof We're living plenty high on the swine I'm finally sitting pretty In Oklahoma City Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight Scared money don't make nothing Nothing in life will come free Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..." Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market open One thing am 100% sure about, NO ONE IS BUYING AT 9/-. Either you 2.5% people hold on to your shares and wait for dividends for ever, or sell at below 9/-. Any one buying at above 9/- will just be buying from him/herself to manipulate the price Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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MaichBlack		#52 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 10:48:18 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		dunkang wrote: wukan wrote: All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics "It's 1982 The market's through the roof We're living plenty high on the swine I'm finally sitting pretty In Oklahoma City Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight Scared money don't make nothing Nothing in life will come free Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..." Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market open One thing am 100% sure about, NO ONE IS BUYING AT 9/-. Either you 2.5% people hold on to your shares and wait for dividends for ever, or sell at below 9/-. Any one buying at above 9/- will just be buying from him/herself to manipulate the price And Uganda has the veto on how much that dividend should be. In addition to any tarriff changes. And it is Uganda's self interest to keep these low! Actually the only reason the demand the vero power. Earth is hard!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack		#53 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 10:52:55 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		The only interest Uganda has is for KPC not to collapse. If it can remain operational and break even, it would be a great outcome for them!!! It would actually be the most desirable outcome. A minority entity with only 20% ownership being a major customer and setting prices for themselves!! Absurdity of the highest order!! Who were our negotiators? Or most importantly, what was/is in it for them??? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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xtina		#54 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 11:00:32 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 391		wukan wrote: All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics "It's 1982 The market's through the roof We're living plenty high on the swine I'm finally sitting pretty In Oklahoma City Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight Scared money don't make nothing Nothing in life will come free Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..." Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market open Weak hands na 2.56% still welcome though
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xtina		#55 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 11:05:57 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 391		100% allocation for all retail investors. SMS and emails from registrar announcing no refunds. Shares to be credited tomorrow.
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MaichBlack		#56 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:02:04 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		xtina wrote: 100% allocation for all retail investors. SMS and emails from registrar announcing no refunds. Shares to be credited tomorrow. Was there any other way out??? Only 2.56% applied! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack		#57 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:06:16 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		xtina wrote: 100% allocation for all retail investors. SMS and emails from registrar announcing no refunds. Shares to be credited tomorrow. How is this even good news!! It means 100% of your money will start losing value as soon as the trading bell rings. If I had somehow appied (never would have!), and things turn out the way they have, I would have loved a 40% allocation (or less) meaning 60% of my money is safe and comes back to me! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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wukan		#58 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 1:42:28 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,644		dunkang wrote: wukan wrote: All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics "It's 1982 The market's through the roof We're living plenty high on the swine I'm finally sitting pretty In Oklahoma City Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight Scared money don't make nothing Nothing in life will come free Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..." Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market open One thing am 100% sure about, NO ONE IS BUYING AT 9/-. Either you 2.5% people hold on to your shares and wait for dividends for ever, or sell at below 9/-. Any one buying at above 9/- will just be buying from him/herself to manipulate the price Why are you taking the painkillers for someone else's headache?
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wukan		#59 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 2:23:48 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,644		stocksmaster wrote: mufasa wrote: @xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations. I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high. This thing will go up before it comes down OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute. Happy Hunting I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation
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MaichBlack		#60 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 9:24:55 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,799		wukan wrote: dunkang wrote: wukan wrote: All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics "It's 1982 The market's through the roof We're living plenty high on the swine I'm finally sitting pretty In Oklahoma City Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight Scared money don't make nothing Nothing in life will come free Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..." Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market open One thing am 100% sure about, NO ONE IS BUYING AT 9/-. Either you 2.5% people hold on to your shares and wait for dividends for ever, or sell at below 9/-. Any one buying at above 9/- will just be buying from him/herself to manipulate the price Why are you taking the painkillers for someone else's headache? What @dunkang did is the exact purpose of this forum. Discussing investments. Anyone who doesn't want to hear other people's opinions should not be in a forum. Any forum. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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