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KPC IPO - Bearish Noise
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MaichBlack
#21 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 6:00:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,773
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoU will take at least 20% in KPC for 2 board seats and veto power on tariff increases.

Swazi nunua, already overpriced, KPC shares at 9/- when my upside for dividends is limited by GoU.

This IPO was dead on arrival. Absolutely no way of justifying getting in at that valuation! Especially with so many other options still under book value!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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wukan
#22 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 7:24:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,641
scared money don't make money
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MaichBlack
#23 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 9:42:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,773
wukan wrote:
scared money don't make money

What about smart money?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Realtreaty
#24 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 9:46:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,376
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoU will take at least 20% in KPC for 2 board seats and veto power on tariff increases.

Swazi nunua, already overpriced, KPC shares at 9/- when my upside for dividends is limited by GoU.


If you do not trust anyone trust your guts to stay in or out
Oil marketers have their share, East Africans have their share, it is possible that Uganda bought a larger chunk and demanded seat as it as well depend on KPC to transport its Oil. The gag news on Uganda refusing to settle for less is not bad news but good news
We are not told whom among Oil marketers is unhappy but they might have taken their full chunk.

I will hate so many people when this thing is successful just because i listen today.
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MaichBlack
#25 Posted : Monday, February 23, 2026 11:00:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,773
Realtreaty wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoU will take at least 20% in KPC for 2 board seats and veto power on tariff increases.

Swazi nunua, already overpriced, KPC shares at 9/- when my upside for dividends is limited by GoU.


If you do not trust anyone trust your guts to stay in or out
Oil marketers have their share, East Africans have their share, it is possible that Uganda bought a larger chunk and demanded seat as it as well depend on KPC to transport its Oil. The gag news on Uganda refusing to settle for less is not bad news but good news
We are not told whom among Oil marketers is unhappy but they might have taken their full chunk.

I will hate so many people when this thing is successful just because i listen today.


The uptake by the original deadline last week was 20%. How does this narrative fit in with this fact??
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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MaichBlack
#26 Posted : Tuesday, February 24, 2026 6:29:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,773
Three days to go... Two days to go... One day to go...

Great IPOs don't have countdowns! Tafakari!!

Don't miss out... Join in building the nation... bla bla bla...

Great IPOs don't need motivational speeches.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Kusadikika
#27 Posted : Thursday, February 26, 2026 2:49:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,719
It looks like the IPO was successful so that is now water under the bridge. Let's now discuss the business.

1). Uganda starts crude oil exports in October 2026.

2) Uganda will still be the biggest oil customer for KPC since they don't start refining their own in 2029/30.

3). What happens when Uganda starts refining it's own oil? Can the pipeline be used to transport Ugandan refined oil to Kenyan consumers? Can the pipeline be used to transport crude oil?
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xtina
#28 Posted : Thursday, February 26, 2026 3:47:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 385
An oversubscription Applause Applause I am really surprised, going by social media sentiment I thought it would be a total flop. We await and see the percentage allocations per category. I suspect only the retail segment was undersubscribed and the OMCs, EA and foreign investors, and institutional bodies oversubscribed.
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