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KPLC & KENGEN SHARP RISE I
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young
#1 Posted : Friday, June 27, 2025 10:16:40 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,067
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Any reason, anyone?

A bit suprising because there
no fresh news in public domain.
Their full year earnings report expected
many months away in late oct.

At this pace KPLC at 19 and Kengen at 11 bob seems a reality.

Many years ago (2003/2004) I have witnessed KPLC rise from 13 bob to 150 bob
in the same year !!! KENGEN was not listed then.

Maybe history wants to repeats itself this year in a "small" way.

KPLC HY was however steller. 31 times higher than previous year.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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ngapat
#2 Posted : Friday, June 27, 2025 11:33:10 AM
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Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 898
Just sold kplc at 11 hoping to re enter again at below 9
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
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Kusadikika
#3 Posted : Friday, June 27, 2025 11:37:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,716
Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes.
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McGill
#4 Posted : Friday, June 27, 2025 1:00:09 PM
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Joined: 8/1/2019
Posts: 102
Kusadikika wrote:
Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes.


KPLC is particularly cheap on a P/E basis. Both trailing and forward
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mlennyma
#5 Posted : Friday, June 27, 2025 1:47:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Kusadikika wrote:
Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes.


What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Kusadikika
#6 Posted : Friday, June 27, 2025 3:46:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,716
mlennyma wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes.


What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector


They did with Safaricom, Kenya's most successful company. Why can't that be replicated with other companies?
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young
#7 Posted : Friday, June 27, 2025 4:32:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,067
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Kusadikika wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes.


What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector


They did with Safaricom, Kenya's most successful company. Why can't that be replicated with other companies?



For KPLC a little as 10% will reduce GOK holdings to 41% , may still be majority shareholder. This will fetch GOK 2.2 billion ksh
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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mlennyma
#8 Posted : Friday, June 27, 2025 5:16:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
young wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes.


What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector


They did with Safaricom, Kenya's most successful company. Why can't that be replicated with other companies?



For KPLC a little as 10% will reduce GOK holdings
to 41% , may still be majority shareholder. This will fetch GOK 2.2 billion ksh


Research well the consequences of falling below 50% by the government
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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young
#9 Posted : Monday, September 01, 2025 10:33:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,067
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
The pair KPLC & KENGEN starts the upswing once again.
As it is I forsee KPLC at 16 and KENGEN at 11 before full year result announcement in late October.
I don't still know the fact behind the recent and ongoing rise
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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DtheK
#10 Posted : Tuesday, September 02, 2025 8:23:36 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 157
Location: Kenya
young wrote:
The pair KPLC & KENGEN starts the upswing once again.
As it is I forsee KPLC at 16 and KENGEN at 11 before full year result announcement in late October.
I don't still know the fact behind the recent and ongoing rise

Hi @young for KPLC they have had a good run which we can credit to:
(1)KES to USD appreciation. KPLC buys power in hard currencies mainly USD. 90% of it's debt is in USD too.
(2) A new board and board structure-This did away with some forms of blatant thievery.
(3) There's growing demand for power. They keep hitting new consumer supply numbers like every quarter.Cheap excess power is available from Ethiopia(cheapest in Africa??).
(4) KPLC was just grossly under priced. We can lazily project a FY EPS of 10. Valuing a profitable, dividend paying monopoly(substantial moat) at less than EPS & NAV was just crazy.
For Kengen capacity expansion in the long term is a plus; several projects from wind, solar, battery storage.
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DtheK
#11 Posted : Tuesday, September 02, 2025 8:26:03 PM
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Joined: 2/15/2010
Posts: 157
Location: Kenya
@ young care to share on any gems listed at your local exchange and also brokers over there who tolerate Kenyans?
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young
#12 Posted : Sunday, September 07, 2025 12:56:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,067
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
DtheK wrote:
@ young care to share on any gems listed at your local exchange and also brokers over there who tolerate Kenyans?


Greetings @Dthek.

kindly be aware that I stopped investing in our local bourse since 2019.
This is due to currency risk. Out local currency naira has been loosing value consistently so any gain in stocks is eroded by inflation.
Currently our inflation stands around 22% whereras kenya is under 6% so the difference is clear.
When I first invested in nairobi bourse way back in 2004
1 ksh was 1.4 naira

fast forward now
1 ksh is 12 naira.

in dollar terms currently
1 USD is 129.50 ksh
whereas
1 USD is 1,510 naira.
You can kindly verify in google?

Nonetheles if interested notwitstanding the big risk outlined, you can contact my stock broker then

www.afrinvest.com for guidance.

Notable and popular counters with strong fundamentals are in banking , telecommunication and industrial sectors
such as

GT bank
Zenith Bank
Dangote Cement
MTN

Of recent things are not as rosy in Nigeria as you guys think or believe over the years.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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young
#13 Posted : Sunday, September 07, 2025 1:12:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,067
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Profit taking by off shore investors depressed some liquid counters.


https://www.businessdail...ks-to-lock-gains-5182464
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2025 12:12:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,255
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
young wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kusadikika wrote:
Those low single digit P/Es were not going to last too long. The two are still cheap no matter how you look at it. They generate good cash and with the 80 percent demanded by GOK as dividends are extremely well priced as dividend stocks. I also think they are prime candidates for further government exits especially now that GOK needs the money and does not want to raise taxes.


What do you mean by government exits? Government owns 50.1% stake in Kenya power...they can't dare sell more to become minority in such an important sector


They did with Safaricom, Kenya's most successful company. Why can't that be replicated with other companies?



For KPLC a little as 10% will reduce GOK holdings
to 41% , may still be majority shareholder. This will fetch GOK 2.2 billion ksh


Research well the consequences of falling below 50% by the government
Firms with less than 50% owned by GOK seem to do much better.

GoK has less than 50% in Safaricom. The firm has done very well since GoK's control was less than 50%.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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MaichBlack
#15 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2025 12:21:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,641
young wrote:
Profit taking by off shore investors depressed some liquid counters.


https://www.businessdail...s-to-lock-gains-5182464 ^

The driver was taking a brief health break. Buses back on the road.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Ericsson
#16 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2025 11:23:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,786
Location: NAIROBI
DtheK wrote:
young wrote:
The pair KPLC & KENGEN starts the upswing once again.
As it is I forsee KPLC at 16 and KENGEN at 11 before full year result announcement in late October.
I don't still know the fact behind the recent and ongoing rise

Hi @young for KPLC they have had a good run which we can credit to:
(1)KES to USD appreciation. KPLC buys power in hard currencies mainly USD. 90% of it's debt is in USD too.
(2) A new board and board structure-This did away with some forms of blatant thievery.
(3) There's growing demand for power. They keep hitting new consumer supply numbers like every quarter.Cheap excess power is available from Ethiopia(cheapest in Africa??).
(4) KPLC was just grossly under priced. We can lazily project a FY EPS of 10. Valuing a profitable, dividend paying monopoly(substantial moat) at less than EPS & NAV was just crazy.
For Kengen capacity expansion in the long term is a plus; several projects from wind, solar, battery storage.


Wind,solar,battery storage is throwing good money at a bad investment.
They better stick with hydroelectric,geothermal and possibly LNG or Coal
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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watesh
#17 Posted : Tuesday, September 09, 2025 9:08:20 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 992
Location: Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
DtheK wrote:
young wrote:
The pair KPLC & KENGEN starts the upswing once again.
As it is I forsee KPLC at 16 and KENGEN at 11 before full year result announcement in late October.
I don't still know the fact behind the recent and ongoing rise

Hi @young for KPLC they have had a good run which we can credit to:
(1)KES to USD appreciation. KPLC buys power in hard currencies mainly USD. 90% of it's debt is in USD too.
(2) A new board and board structure-This did away with some forms of blatant thievery.
(3) There's growing demand for power. They keep hitting new consumer supply numbers like every quarter.Cheap excess power is available from Ethiopia(cheapest in Africa??).
(4) KPLC was just grossly under priced. We can lazily project a FY EPS of 10. Valuing a profitable, dividend paying monopoly(substantial moat) at less than EPS & NAV was just crazy.
For Kengen capacity expansion in the long term is a plus; several projects from wind, solar, battery storage.


Wind,solar,battery storage is throwing good money at a bad investment.
They better stick with hydroelectric,geothermal and possibly LNG or Coal


Battery storage is not bad, it should be used to complement wind, solar and geothermal during off-peak hours thus reducing curtailment.
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