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KenyaRe FY19 - FY23 (Both Inclusive)
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littledove
#781 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2024 9:05:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 906
Location: sky
ngapat wrote:
Have they announced fy2023 results. I don't seem to find the results anywhere 😕


The results , courtesy of mwango capital

Kenya RE [
@Kenya_Re
] 2023 FY Results (YoY, KES) (restated):

—Insurance Revenue : -15.4% to 19.6B
—Net Investment Income: +42.8% to 6.6B
—PBT: +53.2% to 7.0B
—Profit for the year: +41.6% to 4.97B
—Total Assets: +14.8% to 65.98B
—EPS: 1.78 [FY 2022: 1.25]
—DPS: 0.3[FY 2022: 0.2]

bonus shares also coming 1:1
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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VituVingiSana
#782 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2024 5:43:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
obiero wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
A new dawn for Kenya Re as a new CEO is unveiled.

Caution is not cowardice. I speak in code


Thank me later,I speak in parables

Ericsson > Obiero Applause Applause Applause AGAIN

Decent set of results though with IFRS17 there has been a lot of restating.
0.30 DPS (+50% over 2022) though the 1:1 Bonus doesn't make sense.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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watesh
#783 Posted : Tuesday, June 04, 2024 12:28:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 977
Location: Kenya
littledove wrote:
ngapat wrote:
Have they announced fy2023 results. I don't seem to find the results anywhere 😕


The results , courtesy of mwango capital

Kenya RE [
@Kenya_Re
] 2023 FY Results (YoY, KES) (restated):

—Insurance Revenue : -15.4% to 19.6B
—Net Investment Income: +42.8% to 6.6B
—PBT: +53.2% to 7.0B
—Profit for the year: +41.6% to 4.97B
—Total Assets: +14.8% to 65.98B
—EPS: 1.78 [FY 2022: 1.25]
—DPS: 0.3[FY 2022: 0.2]

bonus shares also coming 1:1


What prompted the company to give out a bonus? government directive?
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HaMaina
#784 Posted : Tuesday, June 25, 2024 12:51:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 917
Curr Price Ksh 2.88
Ksh 0.30 Div > 10% Return,
1:1 Bonus = 100% Return.
KenRe to me is a sweet that I can't say NO to. Just that Ive run out of funds, Even my lunch and pint cash for this month is here. 2 Hours to GO.
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
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jmichi
#785 Posted : Friday, June 28, 2024 8:17:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/26/2007
Posts: 26
Location: limuru
Its not a 100% as u state. Nirmally tjere must be a price correction and div is 10% yes. But now the shares are ex bonus..its now 1.4. I would expect ot to be below 1.00 once the bonus shares are loaded. So in actual sense it will be a loss for those who will hold till then esp if the share was bought at 2.8 and above.
never outshine your master......robert green
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Ericsson
#786 Posted : Saturday, June 29, 2024 7:16:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
jmichi wrote:
Its not a 100% as u state. Nirmally tjere must be a price correction and div is 10% yes. But now the shares are ex bonus..its now 1.4. I would expect ot to be below 1.00 once the bonus shares are loaded. So in actual sense it will be a loss for those who will hold till then esp if the share was bought at 2.8 and above.


Going below ksh.1 means it will have a forward dividend yield of 15%
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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VituVingiSana
#787 Posted : Sunday, June 30, 2024 11:31:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
jmichi wrote:
Its not a 100% as u state. Nirmally tjere must be a price correction and div is 10% yes. But now the shares are ex bonus..its now 1.4. I would expect ot to be below 1.00 once the bonus shares are loaded. So in actual sense it will be a loss for those who will hold till then esp if the share was bought at 2.8 and above.


Going below ksh.1 means it will have a forward dividend yield of 15%

Closed at 1.40 on Friday.
I await the 1H2024 results but there may be some large losses loading from the flooding and damages from recent riots.

Even if these do not show up in 1H then they will in 2H and 2025 as claims are filed and processed by the insurers and then sent to Kenya Re.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#788 Posted : Thursday, December 26, 2024 8:32:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,703
Location: NAIROBI
There is a flooding of shares when the price tries to get above 1.20;this depresses the price further to below 1.10
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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McGill
#789 Posted : Thursday, December 26, 2024 9:16:37 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/1/2019
Posts: 89
Ericsson wrote:
There is a flooding of shares when the price tries to get above 1.20;this depresses the price further to below 1.10


That 1.20 will be taken down eventually.
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McGill
#790 Posted : Thursday, December 26, 2024 9:29:27 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/1/2019
Posts: 89
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
jmichi wrote:
Its not a 100% as u state. Nirmally tjere must be a price correction and div is 10% yes. But now the shares are ex bonus..its now 1.4. I would expect ot to be below 1.00 once the bonus shares are loaded. So in actual sense it will be a loss for those who will hold till then esp if the share was bought at 2.8 and above.


Going below ksh.1 means it will have a forward dividend yield of 15%

Closed at 1.40 on Friday.
I await the 1H2024 results but there may be some large losses loading from the flooding and damages from recent riots.

Even if these do not show up in 1H then they will in 2H and 2025 as claims are filed and processed by the insurers and then sent to Kenya Re.


Am also concerned about the net forex losses, they were quite significant in H1 and I think they will be significant in H2. My biggest if is about the payout ratio after the new govt directive. Anyway, the MD said the worst case scenario is them matching 2023fy. Since he knows more than me I will go with that.
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VituVingiSana
#791 Posted : Friday, December 27, 2024 8:48:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
McGill wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
jmichi wrote:
Its not a 100% as u state. Nirmally tjere must be a price correction and div is 10% yes. But now the shares are ex bonus..its now 1.4. I would expect ot to be below 1.00 once the bonus shares are loaded. So in actual sense it will be a loss for those who will hold till then esp if the share was bought at 2.8 and above.


Going below ksh.1 means it will have a forward dividend yield of 15%

Closed at 1.40 on Friday.
I await the 1H2024 results but there may be some large losses loading from the flooding and damages from recent riots.

Even if these do not show up in 1H then they will in 2H and 2025 as claims are filed and processed by the insurers and then sent to Kenya Re.


Am also concerned about the net forex losses, they were quite significant in H1 and I think they will be significant in H2. My biggest if is about the payout ratio after the new govt directive. Anyway, the MD said the worst case scenario is them matching 2023fy. Since he knows more than me I will go with that.
Those could be huge esp given the:
- Assets/Income in West Africa
- Assets in Southern Africa
- ZepRe which pays in $

Though some of the FX losses were accounted for by 30th June.

They did not break out Reinsurance Receivables but unless those have improved, they remain in the same hole.

Kenya Re needs to earn a much higher RoE and pay a substantially higher DPR for shareholders to see a decent return.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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McGill
#792 Posted : Friday, December 27, 2024 9:42:26 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/1/2019
Posts: 89
VituVingiSana wrote:
McGill wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
jmichi wrote:
Its not a 100% as u state. Nirmally tjere must be a price correction and div is 10% yes. But now the shares are ex bonus..its now 1.4. I would expect ot to be below 1.00 once the bonus shares are loaded. So in actual sense it will be a loss for those who will hold till then esp if the share was bought at 2.8 and above.


Going below ksh.1 means it will have a forward dividend yield of 15%

Closed at 1.40 on Friday.
I await the 1H2024 results but there may be some large losses loading from the flooding and damages from recent riots.

Even if these do not show up in 1H then they will in 2H and 2025 as claims are filed and processed by the insurers and then sent to Kenya Re.


Am also concerned about the net forex losses, they were quite significant in H1 and I think they will be significant in H2. My biggest if is about the payout ratio after the new govt directive. Anyway, the MD said the worst case scenario is them matching 2023fy. Since he knows more than me I will go with that.
Those could be huge esp given the:
- Assets/Income in West Africa
- Assets in Southern Africa
- ZepRe which pays in $

Though some of the FX losses were accounted for by 30th June.

They did not break out Reinsurance Receivables but unless those have improved, they remain in the same hole.

Kenya Re needs to earn a much higher RoE and pay a substantially higher DPR for shareholders to see a decent return.


Just 2 questions. What are your thoughts about the new govt directive concerning dividends (in regards to KNRE) and do you think the current price is a buy?
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VituVingiSana
#793 Posted : Friday, December 27, 2024 10:30:13 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
McGill wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
McGill wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
jmichi wrote:
Its not a 100% as u state. Nirmally tjere must be a price correction and div is 10% yes. But now the shares are ex bonus..its now 1.4. I would expect ot to be below 1.00 once the bonus shares are loaded. So in actual sense it will be a loss for those who will hold till then esp if the share was bought at 2.8 and above.


Going below ksh.1 means it will have a forward dividend yield of 15%

Closed at 1.40 on Friday.
I await the 1H2024 results but there may be some large losses loading from the flooding and damages from recent riots.

Even if these do not show up in 1H then they will in 2H and 2025 as claims are filed and processed by the insurers and then sent to Kenya Re.


Am also concerned about the net forex losses, they were quite significant in H1 and I think they will be significant in H2. My biggest if is about the payout ratio after the new govt directive. Anyway, the MD said the worst case scenario is them matching 2023fy. Since he knows more than me I will go with that.
Those could be huge esp given the:
- Assets/Income in West Africa
- Assets in Southern Africa
- ZepRe which pays in $

Though some of the FX losses were accounted for by 30th June.

They did not break out Reinsurance Receivables but unless those have improved, they remain in the same hole.

Kenya Re needs to earn a much higher RoE and pay a substantially higher DPR for shareholders to see a decent return.


Just 2 questions. What are your thoughts about the new govt directive concerning dividends (in regards to KNRE) and do you think the current price is a buy?

DPS: For firms like Kenya Re, the REPORTED EPS is not equivalent to "cash" EPS. Not even close.

Cash EPS excludes gains (or losses) from:
- property revaluations
- translation of subsidiaries
- bonds/financial revaluations
- non-cash movements
- reinvestments of dividends eg Zep Re

So even if Kenya Re "reports" 50c, do not expect 40c (80%) but probably closer to 15c.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#794 Posted : Friday, December 27, 2024 10:37:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
McGill wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
McGill wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
jmichi wrote:
Its not a 100% as u state. Nirmally tjere must be a price correction and div is 10% yes. But now the shares are ex bonus..its now 1.4. I would expect ot to be below 1.00 once the bonus shares are loaded. So in actual sense it will be a loss for those who will hold till then esp if the share was bought at 2.8 and above.


Going below ksh.1 means it will have a forward dividend yield of 15%

Closed at 1.40 on Friday.
I await the 1H2024 results but there may be some large losses loading from the flooding and damages from recent riots.

Even if these do not show up in 1H then they will in 2H and 2025 as claims are filed and processed by the insurers and then sent to Kenya Re.


Am also concerned about the net forex losses, they were quite significant in H1 and I think they will be significant in H2. My biggest if is about the payout ratio after the new govt directive. Anyway, the MD said the worst case scenario is them matching 2023fy. Since he knows more than me I will go with that.
Those could be huge esp given the:
- Assets/Income in West Africa
- Assets in Southern Africa
- ZepRe which pays in $

Though some of the FX losses were accounted for by 30th June.

They did not break out Reinsurance Receivables but unless those have improved, they remain in the same hole.

Kenya Re needs to earn a much higher RoE and pay a substantially higher DPR for shareholders to see a decent return.


Just 2 questions. What are your thoughts about the new govt directive concerning dividends (in regards to KNRE) and do you think the current price is a buy?

I thought it was a buy years ago but my views have changed on the firm given GoK control. I am leery of GoK control. When GoK controls a listed firm, there is an inherent deserved discount.

Cons:

- Note that overall insurance firms, in KE, have done poorly even Jubilee has a sub-10% RoE.
- Add GoK control to Kenya Re and you can see my doubts.
- Politics eg IRA forcing KE to pay for the pandemics, etc

Pros:
- It is 1.20 and if it pays 15c, it pays better than T-Bills. Almost T-Bonds.
- There are several significant land cases that will eventually get resolved. They have been written down so is KR loses, the losses are limited but if KR wins the gains are substantial.

There is a lot to be written about Kenya Re but at the end of the day is the Board and Management aligned with shareholders? No.

That said, it is at 1.20 not 5/- so with 15c there is scope for patience as long as the DPS is 15c or better.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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