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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:DtheK wrote:Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though. Tomorrow, a profit announcement is delivered KES 460m PBT, 77% growth YoY Profit before tax ksh.312mn Discount ya 30%  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:DtheK wrote:Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though. Tomorrow, a profit announcement is delivered KES 460m PBT, 77% growth YoY Profit before tax ksh.312mn Discount ya 30% https://kenyanwallstreet...105-amidst-rights-issue/
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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105% PAT increase https://kenyanwallstreet...105-amidst-rights-issue/
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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@Obiero Are you going to exercise all 60,000 HF Rights? Utanunua zingine to support 100% subscription? Mwango Spaces had the CEO. Impressive guy. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,455
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young Good luck. Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029  @mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do? 1. Sell. 2. Participate in rights issues. 3. Buy below rights price if price dips? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,455
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DtheK wrote:Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though. Would you sell at current prices if you had some. What's the likely price direction after new shares from the rights are loaded into CDS accounts and can be traded? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young Good luck. Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 @mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do? 1. Sell. 2. Participate in rights issues. 3. Buy below rights price if price dips? I would not sell based on what I heard. I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth. I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently. *I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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Expect an oversubscribed event
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,455
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VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young Good luck. Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 @mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do? 1. Sell. 2. Participate in rights issues. 3. Buy below rights price if price dips? I would not sell based on what I heard. I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth. I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently. *I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains. Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young Good luck. Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 @mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do? 1. Sell. 2. Participate in rights issues. 3. Buy below rights price if price dips? I would not sell based on what I heard. I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth. I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently. *I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains. Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant? No idea. They have modeled PAT through 2028 if they get a full subscription. I would discount it. Interest Rates have come off a bit so I would say a PER of 7 sounds reasonable. They were pushing the narrative that the PB is 20% and will increase towards 100%... When? Who knows? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young Good luck. Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 @mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do? 1. Sell. 2. Participate in rights issues. 3. Buy below rights price if price dips? I would not sell based on what I heard. I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth. I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently. *I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains. Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant? No idea. They have modeled PAT through 2028 if they get a full subscription. I would discount it. Interest Rates have come off a bit so I would say a PER of 7 sounds reasonable. They were pushing the narrative that the PB is 20% and will increase towards 100%... When? Who knows? I know! 😁😁 Seems @vvs was in the session too. HF is undervalued. Target price for 2025 is KES 7. Fair value for long term holders remains KES 12
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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Actions speak louder.. https://www.hfgroup.co.k...Performance.5a83da7a.pdf
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young Good luck. Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 @mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do? 1. Sell. 2. Participate in rights issues. 3. Buy below rights price if price dips? I would not sell based on what I heard. I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth. I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently. *I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains. Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant? No idea. They have modeled PAT through 2028 if they get a full subscription. I would discount it. Interest Rates have come off a bit so I would say a PER of 7 sounds reasonable. They were pushing the narrative that the PB is 20% and will increase towards 100%... When? Who knows? I know! 😁😁 Seems @vvs was in the session too. HF is undervalued. Target price for 2025 is KES 7. Fair value for long term holders remains KES 12 Listened to Mwango's podcast with Ramah. Though one can also buy other stocks at decent prices and which pay dividends. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Capital appreciation for me holds more importance. I don't need peanut dividend at the moment because I am still young Good luck. Let's compare ABSA vs HF total return in Nov 2029 @mlennyma, @VituVingiSana - if you held HF shares currently, what would you do? 1. Sell. 2. Participate in rights issues. 3. Buy below rights price if price dips? I would not sell based on what I heard. I may participate in the Rights if I had extra cash sitting around vs buying T-Bonds. All else being equal, I think there will be positive growth. I would definitely consider #3 if the price drops sufficiently. *I do not have cash lying around and I think there are other bargains. Thanks @vvs. What do you think is a realistic target price everything holding constant? No idea. They have modeled PAT through 2028 if they get a full subscription. I would discount it. Interest Rates have come off a bit so I would say a PER of 7 sounds reasonable. They were pushing the narrative that the PB is 20% and will increase towards 100%... When? Who knows? I know! 😁😁 Seems @vvs was in the session too. HF is undervalued. Target price for 2025 is KES 7. Fair value for long term holders remains KES 12 Listened to Mwango's podcast with Ramah. Though one can also buy other stocks at decent prices and which pay dividends. A decent podcast it was.. The CEO seems to know what he's doing
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/15/2010 Posts: 129 Location: Kenya
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MaichBlack wrote:DtheK wrote:Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though. Would you sell at current prices if you had some. What's the likely price direction after new shares from the rights are loaded into CDS accounts and can be traded? I wouldn't sell, I'd give management and board about a year to see how they utilize the raised capital. They are already doing a decent job especially on non funded income. Price direction I dare not speculate. Bottom line is judging from recent result HF isn't a dud, there are just way more more superior options.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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DtheK wrote:MaichBlack wrote:DtheK wrote:Proposal to increase KE banks core capital to 10B by 2027(potential for more cash calls)
Britam has loaned to HFCK at 20%.
There are other cheap banks with sufficient even excess capital(therefore dividends).
A pass. Admire Obiero's conviction though. Would you sell at current prices if you had some. What's the likely price direction after new shares from the rights are loaded into CDS accounts and can be traded? I wouldn't sell, I'd give management and board about a year to see how they utilize the raised capital. They are already doing a decent job especially on non funded income. Price direction I dare not speculate. Bottom line is judging from recent result HF isn't a dud, there are just way more more superior options. It's a solid firm
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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Tomorrow is the big day
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 972 Location: Home
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obiero wrote:Tomorrow is the big day Oversubscribed
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,516 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:Expect an oversubscribed event Let the weak say, I am strong. Let the blind say, I can see
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
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