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KENGEN 2021-2025
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,678 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:stocksmaster wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:stocksmaster wrote:HaMaina wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:[quote=kawi254]Will full year results be out by 31st October 2023?
last few years excuses for delays been lack of Auditor General, hitches ..lack of CEO
This time they have no excuse. They don't need to wait till last minute, results should be out by now. Though nothing good expected with the depressed hydrology. Reasonable results KenGen Dividends @ Ksh 0.30, which is more than 10% of the current price. This I think is not a bad buy. Only reasonable 'buy' now is any stock that has a dividend yield that equals the 6.5 years IFB (at around 16%).....and remember that entire dividend yield will be factored in the current price such that as the stock goes ex-dividend with books closure, the price retracts at least with the equivalence of the dividend (e.g once Kengen closes books, you can be assured the price will drop by at least Ksh 0.3 and may not recover until next dividend announcement which maybe lower with the current economic environment). Happy Hunting Any stocks that meet this DY? Agriculturals (except those in Macadamia business).....they will rake in crazy returns based on the favorable rains and huge depreciation of the Ksh. Let's start with 18% for the IFB! WTK paid 30 and the current price is 200 so it is in the ballpark. KTC paid 20 and the current price is 220 which is 9% [1/2 of the IFB] Do note that tea prices are -25% YOY as lots of rain has increased production AND some of our buyers are broke. Egypt has no $ and asked to barter for tea. Pakistan has had financial drama for a while. https://english.ahram.or...-tea-supplies-amid.aspx[/quote] We should look for china to buy our tea. We need to add value for what the world wants. I think firms like WTK are responsive to what their customers need or want. I do not know if China imports tea but it would be great to break into that market. they do import tea. https://www.the-star.co....e-market-for-kenyan-tea/Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 403 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:stocksmaster wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:stocksmaster wrote:HaMaina wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:[quote=kawi254]Will full year results be out by 31st October 2023?
last few years excuses for delays been lack of Auditor General, hitches ..lack of CEO
This time they have no excuse. They don't need to wait till last minute, results should be out by now. Though nothing good expected with the depressed hydrology. Reasonable results KenGen Dividends @ Ksh 0.30, which is more than 10% of the current price. This I think is not a bad buy. Only reasonable 'buy' now is any stock that has a dividend yield that equals the 6.5 years IFB (at around 16%).....and remember that entire dividend yield will be factored in the current price such that as the stock goes ex-dividend with books closure, the price retracts at least with the equivalence of the dividend (e.g once Kengen closes books, you can be assured the price will drop by at least Ksh 0.3 and may not recover until next dividend announcement which maybe lower with the current economic environment). Happy Hunting Any stocks that meet this DY? Agriculturals (except those in Macadamia business).....they will rake in crazy returns based on the favorable rains and huge depreciation of the Ksh. Let's start with 18% for the IFB! WTK paid 30 and the current price is 200 so it is in the ballpark. KTC paid 20 and the current price is 220 which is 9% [1/2 of the IFB] Do note that tea prices are -25% YOY as lots of rain has increased production AND some of our buyers are broke. Egypt has no $ and asked to barter for tea. Pakistan has had financial drama for a while. https://english.ahram.or...-tea-supplies-amid.aspx[/quote] We should look for china to buy our tea. WTK and Kapchorua Half Year Results registered almost a doubling of PAT.....This was sweetened by an interim dividend of Ksh 10. Happy Hunting
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,095 Location: Nairobi
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stocksmaster wrote:Ericsson wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:stocksmaster wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:stocksmaster wrote:HaMaina wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:[quote=kawi254]Will full year results be out by 31st October 2023?
last few years excuses for delays been lack of Auditor General, hitches ..lack of CEO
This time they have no excuse. They don't need to wait till last minute, results should be out by now. Though nothing good expected with the depressed hydrology. Reasonable results KenGen Dividends @ Ksh 0.30, which is more than 10% of the current price. This I think is not a bad buy. Only reasonable 'buy' now is any stock that has a dividend yield that equals the 6.5 years IFB (at around 16%).....and remember that entire dividend yield will be factored in the current price such that as the stock goes ex-dividend with books closure, the price retracts at least with the equivalence of the dividend (e.g once Kengen closes books, you can be assured the price will drop by at least Ksh 0.3 and may not recover until next dividend announcement which maybe lower with the current economic environment). Happy Hunting Any stocks that meet this DY? Agriculturals (except those in Macadamia business).....they will rake in crazy returns based on the favorable rains and huge depreciation of the Ksh. Let's start with 18% for the IFB! WTK paid 30 and the current price is 200 so it is in the ballpark. KTC paid 20 and the current price is 220 which is 9% [1/2 of the IFB] Do note that tea prices are -25% YOY as lots of rain has increased production AND some of our buyers are broke. Egypt has no $ and asked to barter for tea. Pakistan has had financial drama for a while. https://english.ahram.or...-tea-supplies-amid.aspx[/quote] We should look for china to buy our tea. WTK and Kapchorua Half Year Results registered almost a doubling of PAT.....This was sweetened by an interim dividend of Ksh 10. Happy Hunting As a long term shareholder I am very happy with the interim DPS and PAT  I have received way more in dividends (over the past 10 years) for these two than I paid for them.  I cannot say that for most of the my holdings. I expect another 20/- as a Final Dividend if the tea prices hold up [but they are down 25% YoY] and KES remains weak. BUT this is a KenGen thread! KES/USD will likely hurt KenGen if there are large USD loans out there. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/23/2014 Posts: 909
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 These big buyers always come and mess things up, Why can't they just buy without shaking up everything ? “You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,588
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HaMaina wrote: These big buyers always come and mess things up, Why can't they just buy without shaking up everything ? This bus has just left the station next stop 6 bob
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,702
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HaMaina wrote: These big buyers always come and mess things up, Why can't they just buy without shaking up everything ? It was too cheap to ignore. P/E - 2.63 Dividend yield 15 percent An MD who is finally talking business and shareholder return. 45 percent of net profit to be paid as dividends and a target to grow net profit to 10 billion shillings within 2 years. Hata kama ni wewe ungefanya nini when you have 100 million lying around? That 10 percent price jump is nothing. For those who don't know yet. Right now at 12:56 pm Kengen volume is 48+ million and price has jumped 10 percent to 2.20.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,702
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 467 Location: Nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:HaMaina wrote: These big buyers always come and mess things up, Why can't they just buy without shaking up everything ? It was too cheap to ignore. P/E - 2.63 Dividend yield 15 percent An MD who is finally talking business and shareholder return. 45 percent of net profit to be paid as dividends and a target to grow net profit to 10 billion shillings within 2 years. Hata kama ni wewe ungefanya nini when you have 100 million lying around? That 10 percent price jump is nothing. For those who don't know yet. Right now at 12:56 pm Kengen volume is 48+ million and price has jumped 10 percent to 2.20. Now President says companies like Kengen must remit 80% of profits to Goverment - i don't support such statement as it will be end of KenGen but it could mean Kengen shareholders dividend will be x3?. Not that anything this GoK says is ever done. https://twitter.com/Oliv...tus/1772538310595916209
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/23/2014 Posts: 909
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Kusadikika wrote:HaMaina wrote: These big buyers always come and mess things up, Why can't they just buy without shaking up everything ? It was too cheap to ignore. P/E - 2.63 Dividend yield 15 percent An MD who is finally talking business and shareholder return. 45 percent of net profit to be paid as dividends and a target to grow net profit to 10 billion shillings within 2 years. Hata kama ni wewe ungefanya nini when you have 100 million lying around? That 10 percent price jump is nothing. For those who don't know yet. Right now at 12:56 pm Kengen volume is 48+ million and price has jumped 10 percent to 2.20. Its been at 1.97-2.00Ksh since October2023. “You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,702
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Up another 10 percent to 2.42. Volume traded at 13:46 hours 29+ million. Someone big wants Kengen.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,499 Location: nairobi
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Kusadikika wrote:Up another 10 percent to 2.42. Volume traded at 13:46 hours 29+ million. Someone big wants Kengen. Shareholders on this stock have seen it all
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,678 Location: NAIROBI
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kawi254 wrote:Kusadikika wrote:HaMaina wrote: These big buyers always come and mess things up, Why can't they just buy without shaking up everything ? It was too cheap to ignore. P/E - 2.63 Dividend yield 15 percent An MD who is finally talking business and shareholder return. 45 percent of net profit to be paid as dividends and a target to grow net profit to 10 billion shillings within 2 years. Hata kama ni wewe ungefanya nini when you have 100 million lying around? That 10 percent price jump is nothing. For those who don't know yet. Right now at 12:56 pm Kengen volume is 48+ million and price has jumped 10 percent to 2.20. Now President says companies like Kengen must remit 80% of profits to Goverment - i don't support such statement as it will be end of KenGen but it could mean Kengen shareholders dividend will be x3?. Not that anything this GoK says is ever done. https://twitter.com/Oliv...tus/1772538310595916209
Kengen has capex projects to undertake and for them 80% profits as dividends not tenable Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,095 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:kawi254 wrote:Kusadikika wrote:HaMaina wrote: These big buyers always come and mess things up, Why can't they just buy without shaking up everything ? It was too cheap to ignore. P/E - 2.63 Dividend yield 15 percent An MD who is finally talking business and shareholder return. 45 percent of net profit to be paid as dividends and a target to grow net profit to 10 billion shillings within 2 years. Hata kama ni wewe ungefanya nini when you have 100 million lying around? That 10 percent price jump is nothing. For those who don't know yet. Right now at 12:56 pm Kengen volume is 48+ million and price has jumped 10 percent to 2.20. Now President says companies like Kengen must remit 80% of profits to Goverment - i don't support such statement as it will be end of KenGen but it could mean Kengen shareholders dividend will be x3?. Not that anything this GoK says is ever done. https://twitter.com/Oliv...tus/1772538310595916209
Kengen has capex projects to undertake and for them 80% profits as dividends not tenable Do politicians (GoK) care? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,678 Location: NAIROBI
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:kawi254 wrote:Kusadikika wrote:HaMaina wrote: These big buyers always come and mess things up, Why can't they just buy without shaking up everything ? It was too cheap to ignore. P/E - 2.63 Dividend yield 15 percent An MD who is finally talking business and shareholder return. 45 percent of net profit to be paid as dividends and a target to grow net profit to 10 billion shillings within 2 years. Hata kama ni wewe ungefanya nini when you have 100 million lying around? That 10 percent price jump is nothing. For those who don't know yet. Right now at 12:56 pm Kengen volume is 48+ million and price has jumped 10 percent to 2.20. Now President says companies like Kengen must remit 80% of profits to Goverment - i don't support such statement as it will be end of KenGen but it could mean Kengen shareholders dividend will be x3?. Not that anything this GoK says is ever done. https://twitter.com/Oliv...tus/1772538310595916209
Kengen has capex projects to undertake and for them 80% profits as dividends not tenable Do politicians (GoK) care? Plus loans to repay. Kengen remitting 80% of profits is a pipe dream. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,678 Location: NAIROBI
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https://www.businessdail...-as-dams-spill--4594038
Does it mean they will have a good H2. H1 they had a significant drop in profits Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/20/2015 Posts: 467 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/commodities/production-of-cheaper-hydropower-hits-2-year-high-as-dams-spill--4594038
Does it mean they will have a good H2.
H1 they had a significant drop in profits Article mentions 290.48 GWh in 03/2024 which is low compared to years when Masinga dam spills over where between April - September an average of 400 Gwh is generated from Hydro per month. We watch for April - September generation figures hoping that the 'take or pay' LTWP or Ethiopia power import are not given priority over Kengen's Hydro. April,May & June in my opinion won't rescue H2. We have had good rains since El Nino rains of November 2023 and the Hydro production has been maintained low.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/10/2014 Posts: 968 Location: Kenya
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kawi254 wrote:Ericsson wrote:https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/commodities/production-of-cheaper-hydropower-hits-2-year-high-as-dams-spill--4594038
Does it mean they will have a good H2.
H1 they had a significant drop in profits Article mentions 290.48 GWh in 03/2024 which is low compared to years when Masinga dam spills over where between April - September an average of 400 Gwh is generated from Hydro per month. We watch for April - September generation figures hoping that the 'take or pay' LTWP or Ethiopia power import are not given priority over Kengen's Hydro. April,May & June in my opinion won't rescue H2. We have had good rains since El Nino rains of November 2023 and the Hydro production has been maintained low. I think that 'Take or Pay' for LTWP and Kipeto will sadly be first on the lineup until they reach the must-run threshold (they don't have capacity charges). Geothermal though will likely be displaced by hydro at night and periods of low demand during daytime since full dams have to just run at full capacity otherwise the water will just spill over instead. Ethiopia imports will just show up during peak demand periods. Thermals will be location specific eg Coast region and northern Kenya. After the rains are over, hydros will go back to being used as peaker plants and geothermal will be back on full-blast as baseload. Either way, Kengen makes more of its money from the capacity charges of all its power plants rather than unit sales. Hydro unit sales may cannibalize geothermal unit sales at night. Another hydro challenge is transmission in the Western side of Kenya. Ever since the massive solar plants (Alten, Selenkei,Cedate) came on, the lines have been running at capacity hence evacuating Turkwel hydro power and solar farms at the same time has been a challenge. Unless that has been fixed, Turkwel isn't run at optimum capacity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,678 Location: NAIROBI
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Kengen is unlikely to benefit much from the on-going rainfall which has filled it's dams due to reduced demand for example lack of tourists in Coast due to the harsh weather Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/28/2016 Posts: 37 Location: nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:Kengen is unlikely to benefit much from the on-going rainfall which has filled it's dams due to reduced demand for example lack of tourists in Coast due to the harsh weather That's why these guys need to invest in Battery Storage. I was in parliament last year begging the MPs to provide tax incentives for investments in battery storage (for wind and solar) however, it appears that it coould have much wider application than what i had intially thought. There is a very interesting article on NYT on how battery storage in California has the capacity of 16,000 megawatts and was able to produce about a fifth of the total energy required by the state in month of April (from 10th April to 30 April). This is the article for any one interestered: https://www.nytimes.com/...r-california-texas.html
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 2,702
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Anybody know why the Kengen dividend has no book closure and payment dates? It's all subject to approval according to the notice on the NSE website.
Anything to do with not having a chairman of the board? One was just appointed a few days ago ama kuna mambo ingine?
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