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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
My 2 cents
#5621 Posted : Thursday, November 16, 2023 3:53:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,059
wukan wrote:
wukan wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now.


Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments.

Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up


Last week was fun Applause Too bad the sellers got exhausted on some counters


It is too early to call it. Wait until Christmas.
shocks
#5622 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2023 8:26:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 359
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend
wukan
#5623 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2023 9:56:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,572
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.
deadpoet
#5624 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2023 5:14:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/27/2006
Posts: 497
wukan wrote:
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.


So your argument is... context doesn't matter?
My 2 cents
#5625 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2023 7:24:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,059
deadpoet wrote:
wukan wrote:
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.


So your argument is... context doesn't matter?


At the risk of speaking for Wukan, I guess his point is that context is not predictive.
shocks
#5626 Posted : Monday, November 20, 2023 3:02:26 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 359
wukan wrote:
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.

I didn't say wait till it bottoms out, just untill a downtrend is confirmed
wukan
#5627 Posted : Monday, December 04, 2023 6:20:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,572
Signals are there. Dalili ya mvua ni mawingu








wukan
#5628 Posted : Monday, December 04, 2023 6:24:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,572
shocks wrote:
wukan wrote:
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.

I didn't say wait till it bottoms out, just untill a downtrend is confirmed


The downtrend signal

Quote:
The infrastructure bonds (IFBs) sold by the government this year are trading at a premium in the secondary market at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) on elevated demand from retail buyers chasing the high, interest-free interest rates on the two papers.

The 17-year IFB sold in March, the 7-year one floated in June, and the 6.5-year paper sold earlier this month are the only three active bonds that traded above their par, or face value, in Friday’s session.

wukan
#5629 Posted : Tuesday, December 05, 2023 8:53:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,572


Hail Mary pass
Ericsson
#5630 Posted : Wednesday, December 06, 2023 7:47:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,646
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:


Hail Mary pass


Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#5631 Posted : Wednesday, December 06, 2023 9:40:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:


Hail Mary pass


Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.

Atleast tbills are guaranteed to head North

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
wukan
#5632 Posted : Thursday, December 07, 2023 7:10:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,572
Ericsson wrote:


Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.


How now? If the devaluation from 100-150 didn't help boost exports what will?

I have argued on this forum on kenya's economy having a structural problem. It didn't respond that much to 2021 rate cut stimulus(which is what the monk was trying to achieve) and now did't respond to a competitive devaluation.

Quote:
“The point we want to make is that we have been losing competitiveness. Our level of exports to GDP has been declining consistently, we are not getting as much tourism receipts as our neighbouring countries, and our FDI has also declined,” said CBK governor Kamau Thugge on Wednesday.


So we are now to the 2011 playbook which is to catch the portfolio inflows by hiking rates to match the Fed. US Tbond yields are coming down. Our lazy fund managers have refused to take advantage of low equity prices so let's see if foreign buyers will awaken them

Quote:
n their August 2023 review, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) noted that the market dividend yield stood at 8.63 percent, significantly outperforming the peer average group of stock exchanges in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, which had a yield of 4.28 percent.


I expect the market will be reverting to the mean(to get to the frontier market yield) so doubling of market which is much better returns than what you will get from the T-bills. Same reason that in 2011 the market ignored T-bills at 20%

Market turnover yesterday was quite robust
kaifastus
#5633 Posted : Friday, December 08, 2023 2:25:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:


Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.


How now? If the devaluation from 100-150 didn't help boost exports what will?

I have argued on this forum on kenya's economy having a structural problem. It didn't respond that much to 2021 rate cut stimulus(which is what the monk was trying to achieve) and now did't respond to a competitive devaluation.

Quote:
“The point we want to make is that we have been losing competitiveness. Our level of exports to GDP has been declining consistently, we are not getting as much tourism receipts as our neighbouring countries, and our FDI has also declined,” said CBK governor Kamau Thugge on Wednesday.


So we are now to the 2011 playbook which is to catch the portfolio inflows by hiking rates to match the Fed. US Tbond yields are coming down. Our lazy fund managers have refused to take advantage of low equity prices so let's see if foreign buyers will awaken them

Quote:
n their August 2023 review, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) noted that the market dividend yield stood at 8.63 percent, significantly outperforming the peer average group of stock exchanges in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, which had a yield of 4.28 percent.


I expect the market will be reverting to the mean(to get to the frontier market yield) so doubling of market which is much better returns than what you will get from the T-bills. Same reason that in 2011 the market ignored T-bills at 20%

Market turnover yesterday was quite robust


I agree with you that Kenya's export to GDP ratio has worsened, indicating that as a country we are losing competitiveness. However, a devaluation of a country's currency in the short term worsens the balance of payment. after some time the balance of payments/current account should improve. (J-curve phenomenon in economics). I saw from the mpc report that the balance of payments position in Kenya has deteriorated marginally.I suspect it should improve with time.
kaifastus
#5634 Posted : Sunday, December 17, 2023 1:55:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
I have built decent cash reserves this year, hoping to profit from market distortions like i did around 2011. However, unlike last time, TBIlls and bonds have not excited me. a lot of uncertainty on whether the WB and IMF will bail out Kenya next yr. Of course, if these 2 institutions fail to lend us the moneys we default.we can't raise the 2b dollars required. Am asking mysef why couldn't imf/WB bail out Ghana, Zambia and now Ethiopia. What's so special about Kenya? I have passed over the 18% sumptuous bonds on offer with a few regrets
wukan
#5635 Posted : Sunday, December 31, 2023 8:51:04 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,572
kaifastus wrote:


I agree with you that Kenya's export to GDP ratio has worsened, indicating that as a country we are losing competitiveness. However, a devaluation of a country's currency in the short term worsens the balance of payment. after some time the balance of payments/current account should improve. (J-curve phenomenon in economics). I saw from the mpc report that the balance of payments position in Kenya has deteriorated marginally.I suspect it should improve with time.


J-curve phenomenon manenos...starving to keep fit

obiero
#5636 Posted : Monday, January 22, 2024 5:19:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
wukan wrote:
wukan wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now.


Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments.

Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up


Last week was fun Applause Too bad the sellers got exhausted on some counters

Earnings reporting season coming up means only one thing

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
wukan
#5637 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2024 2:09:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,572
Prices on 7th Nov 23 when NSE bottomed out
Absa touched 10.6
KCB at 15
Coop 10.2
SCBK 150
LBTY 3.63
Safcom 11.8

Bears make money
VituVingiSana
#5638 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2024 7:09:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,062
Location: Nairobi
wukan wrote:
Prices on 7th Nov 23 when NSE bottomed out
Absa touched 10.6
KCB at 15
Coop 10.2
SCBK 150
LBTY 3.63
Safcom 11.8

Bears make money

Please post EABL and BAT prices as of 7th Nov 2023
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#5639 Posted : Friday, March 15, 2024 6:47:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,572
VituVingiSana wrote:
wukan wrote:
Prices on 7th Nov 23 when NSE bottomed out
Absa touched 10.6
KCB at 15
Coop 10.2
SCBK 150
LBTY 3.63
Safcom 11.8

Bears make money

Please post EABL and BAT prices as of 7th Nov 2023


EABL 120 low 115
BAT 407.5 low 405
mlennyma
#5640 Posted : Friday, March 15, 2024 11:41:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,177
Location: nairobi
Is it dividend season optimism or we are back to life? These forums were very vibrant, will we ever rise again? You could see a crowd of participants.. Are you still alive guys? 😄
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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