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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
My 2 cents
#5621 Posted : Thursday, November 16, 2023 3:53:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,059
wukan wrote:
wukan wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
If there was ever a time to lose the faith, it is now.


Have faith looks like we are at the climax of the bulls-v-bears fight. Turnover dropped to 27 million which is like a couple of kilimani apartments.

Let's see how low sellers are willing to go before they give up


Last week was fun Applause Too bad the sellers got exhausted on some counters


It is too early to call it. Wait until Christmas.
shocks
#5622 Posted : Friday, November 17, 2023 8:26:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 358
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend
wukan
#5623 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2023 9:56:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,557
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.
deadpoet
#5624 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2023 5:14:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/27/2006
Posts: 495
wukan wrote:
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.


So your argument is... context doesn't matter?
My 2 cents
#5625 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2023 7:24:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,059
deadpoet wrote:
wukan wrote:
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.


So your argument is... context doesn't matter?


At the risk of speaking for Wukan, I guess his point is that context is not predictive.
shocks
#5626 Posted : Monday, November 20, 2023 3:02:26 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/15/2009
Posts: 358
wukan wrote:
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.

I didn't say wait till it bottoms out, just untill a downtrend is confirmed
wukan
#5627 Posted : Monday, December 04, 2023 6:20:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,557
Signals are there. Dalili ya mvua ni mawingu








wukan
#5628 Posted : Monday, December 04, 2023 6:24:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,557
shocks wrote:
wukan wrote:
shocks wrote:
T-Bill rates will give us the signal, wait till they give a downtrend


T-bill rates is a useless lagging indicator. Market is usually forward-looking.

When you go back to Aug 2002 the market bottomed out with Tb rate at 9.4%. A year later the tb rate dropped to 0.843%

2009 Feb market bottomed out GFC crisis with Tb rate at 7.99%. T bill rate waited till July 2010 to hit 1.462%

2011 Nov. through 2012 market rallied from 2785 to 5k with Tb rates at 20.69% in Dec 2012

Tbill is the meeting place for lazy bankers and fund managers.

I didn't say wait till it bottoms out, just untill a downtrend is confirmed


The downtrend signal

Quote:
The infrastructure bonds (IFBs) sold by the government this year are trading at a premium in the secondary market at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) on elevated demand from retail buyers chasing the high, interest-free interest rates on the two papers.

The 17-year IFB sold in March, the 7-year one floated in June, and the 6.5-year paper sold earlier this month are the only three active bonds that traded above their par, or face value, in Friday’s session.

wukan
#5629 Posted : Tuesday, December 05, 2023 8:53:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,557


Hail Mary pass
Ericsson
#5630 Posted : Wednesday, December 06, 2023 7:47:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,617
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:


Hail Mary pass


Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#5631 Posted : Wednesday, December 06, 2023 9:40:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,454
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
wukan wrote:


Hail Mary pass


Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.

Atleast tbills are guaranteed to head North

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
wukan
#5632 Posted : Thursday, December 07, 2023 7:10:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,557
Ericsson wrote:


Won't help in ending the weakness of the kenya shilling.
The weakening will end when we increase our exports and foreign earnings.


How now? If the devaluation from 100-150 didn't help boost exports what will?

I have argued on this forum on kenya's economy having a structural problem. It didn't respond that much to 2021 rate cut stimulus(which is what the monk was trying to achieve) and now did't respond to a competitive devaluation.

Quote:
“The point we want to make is that we have been losing competitiveness. Our level of exports to GDP has been declining consistently, we are not getting as much tourism receipts as our neighbouring countries, and our FDI has also declined,” said CBK governor Kamau Thugge on Wednesday.


So we are now to the 2011 playbook which is to catch the portfolio inflows by hiking rates to match the Fed. US Tbond yields are coming down. Our lazy fund managers have refused to take advantage of low equity prices so let's see if foreign buyers will awaken them

Quote:
n their August 2023 review, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) noted that the market dividend yield stood at 8.63 percent, significantly outperforming the peer average group of stock exchanges in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, which had a yield of 4.28 percent.


I expect the market will be reverting to the mean(to get to the frontier market yield) so doubling of market which is much better returns than what you will get from the T-bills. Same reason that in 2011 the market ignored T-bills at 20%

Market turnover yesterday was quite robust
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